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Early Morning Update - June 25, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Futures opened higher on Monday following the milk production report, but there wasn't strong volume, indicating some hesitancy in the market. Open interest fell by 136 contracts while prices rose on the day indicating some short covering (principally in the July contract). Short-covering rallies are weak rallies and despite Block market strength yesterday, the market could see a leveling-off here and possibly a pull back.

Spot cheese opened with offers shown right out of the gate, but block buyers showed up. Block bids pushed that market higher to trade twice and settle at 1.8900. Barrels were down ½ a cent to $1.9150 leaving the block/barrel spread at the narrowest inversion in over a month (2.5 cents). Futures rallied on the spot action but remain at a healthy premium to spot. We suspect the market will start mixed and get choppy here amid what we perceive as waning buyer nervousness around current levels.

Butter futures were mixed mostly lower on good volume again Monday. 350 contracts changed hands and open interest increased by 183 as the market remains remarkably stable so far this week. Spot butter fell to 3.0575 intrasession before being bid back to – and settling - at 3.0650. While the market is rather sideways around current levels with no sense of urgency by either buyers or sellers, we will note that the price low the past 2 weeks was $3.0800. We’re now tip-toeing below that level. This won’t mean much today, but we’ll keep our eye on how the price finishes this week for more insight.

NFDM futures were mixed to kick off this week despite the 1.25 cent decline in spot NFDM yesterday. The trade continues to weigh lackluster comments – and reality - around demand with uncertain and tight fresh milk flows. The result so far this week is a continued sideways trade.

The grain markets continue to trend lower on a better weather outlook heading into the summer. A significant amount of precipitation last week flooded parts of the corn belt, but many parts also saw beneficial rainfalls. A majority of crops are in a good position to start the summer. 

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  • Dairy

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