CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - November 13, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
This morning’s CPI data showed us a third straight month of firm inflation, with the headline and core numbers up month-over-month by 0.2% and 0.3% respectively, while the year-over-year numbers were up 2.6% and 3.3% respectively. All of those numbers were unchanged from last month, besides the year-over-year headline number, which is actually up from 2.4%. The inability to get inflation back to the Fed’s 2.0% target is fueling questions about whether the Federal Reserve should press on with rate cuts. The trade is still thinking we see a cut at next month’s meeting, but the odds are shrinking (now, favored just 60%-40%), and the trade is thinking we get a total of just two cuts by the end of 2025.
The USDA issued their final decision Federal Milk Marketing Order (FMMO) reform. There were only minor changes between the Recommended Decision released on July 1, 2024 and the Final Decision. Please see our comments here.
US dairy markets were mostly mixed Tuesday with firming price action for Cheese and NFDM futures juxtaposed against mostly weakening Class IV, Class III, Butter and Dry Whey (Class IV futures saw much improved trading volume with 444 contracts changing hands and open interest up over 300 contracts). Nearby Class III did close modestly higher along with the first higher close for Block cheese since Wednesday, October 23rd. The market still feels uninspired. We’ll call it still quiet domestic demand here just ahead of the Thanksgiving Holiday. That said, unlike last year, there doesn’t appear to be a significant overhang of fresh available cheese looking for a home today. We suspect if that were the case, offers would be heavier and prices weaker by this point. A lot of weakness has already occurred, which will likely be helpful to anyone looking to export cheese. In the meantime, we expect to see some of this renewed cheese buyer interest stick around.
The spot butter bounce we (some of us, not really Nate) expected could be in play a few weeks ago is behind us. Spot butter made a new low for the move that started up over $3.20/lb. with a close under $2.60/lb. for the first time since the last week of January 2024. Downside technical target now is $2.40. Will we get there? Spot can do its own thing here and so the answer is we don’t know but with cream heavy and seasonal demand slowing down, more weakness is possible. Butter futures saw good volume on weakness yesterday with 422 contracts changing hands and open interest growing by 240 contracts.
NFDM futures continue their ascent yesterday but once again seem to be running into some resistance around the $140.000 level. Granted, December 2024 to June 2025 NFDM all closed at or above $140.000 but spot closed unchanged (at $140.000) with no bids and 1 offer (to sell) remaining on the board. For now, spot staying around the $140.000 mark seems reasonable, which may usher in some more mixed trading for NFDM futures short-term.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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