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Early Morning Update - September 6, 2024

By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

 

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Thursday morning Class III and Cheese opened lower as it saw follow through selling from the day prior. Nearby futures were down as much as 40-50 cents heading into spot. Spot stability on Wednesday saw buy side enthusiasm cool but that wasn’t the case yesterday. An unchanged spot market brought futures well off their lows ultimately settling just 10-20 cents lower. As we mentioned yesterday, you’ve got to feed a bull market and sometimes spot stability is all you need given bullish fundamentals. Market participants could also be positioning ahead of the July Dairy Product report today (forecasts in yesterday update) as we’ve been given a few surprises (aka revisions) in recent USDA reports. Class III futures trading remained strong with over 2,600 contracts trading as open interest rose by 235 contracts. Cheese futures volume was half of what we saw Wednesday as 304 contracts trading with open interest up 72 contracts.

Spot butter saw it’s first move higher in 6 session with prices up 1.5 cents on 3 trades. After seeing over 500 contracts trade on Wednesday, only 100 contracts traded yesterday with over half of that trading in September. Butter production is expected to decline month to month and would only be up 1.5% from last year as we likely saw milk shift to cheese production, that will continue to underpin these markets as we trade near or at contract highs.

Spot nonfat was a tick higher which is a new high but futures have decided to consolidate the last 2 sessions as prices were roughly 1-2 cents lower through Q2. Stable/weaker markets globally likely paused the nonfat rally but isolated US fundamentals will keep nonfat supported. As we trade near contract highs, end users likely feel underhedged, particularly in 2025 and are left with the decision to wait for another break in price or put on coverage now.  

The spot milk basis in the Upper-Midwest was in-line with year-ago levels for the first week of September. Trading activity was lower due to the Labor Day holiday. Reports from farmers and processors are that recent warm temperatures have put pressure milk yields compared to previous weeks. School districts are in full swing now, leading to strong Class I demand. Despite the slow trading activity some stakeholders reported to the USDA that they received no offers for loads of milk which is atypical for a holiday week. Margin levels are supportive which would normally mean growth is expected to help alleviate tight milk supply now, but there just aren’t many replacements to bring on to provide that growth

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Dairy cow slaughter in the U.S. remains weak. During the week ending August 24th, dairy cow slaughter was just over 50,000 head, a 12.91% decline from year-ago levels. This brings the year-to-date slaughter total down 14.40% from last year through 34 weeks. Over the last 4 weeks slaughter of dairy cows is down 14.04% year-over-year, this is the closest margin the 4-week rolling slaughter total has had to year-ago levels in 14 weeks. Total beef slaughter is slightly below year-ago levels, down 2.81% as beef cows regained some market share in the beef market this week.

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  • Dairy

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