CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - February 29, 2024
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
Class III and Cheese futures were mixed Wednesday as continued dry whey market weakness weighed on Class III. Cheese futures, driven by a rather stable spot call and increased Q2 buy side hedge interest, closed modestly higher. Spot dry whey has fallen 0.0825 in the last three days, which drove a sharp decline in futures thru year end the past few days. The 2H pack is down around 4 cents from it’s recent high and the mid-40s appear to be an area that may develop a good two-sided trade. Still the weakness has taken some of the luster off the recent Class III rally which has also been stunted due to a rather stable spot cheese market average here in the low $1.60s.
Spot butter fell 3.5 cents yesterday to close at $280.000 on 5 trades, which helped ignite a heavy volume futures trade in which 569 contracts changed hands. Open interest rose by 97 contracts, which is not ground breaking but reveals a good mix of new buying and selling. Buyers remain interested in buying the dip, but after a month of more or less higher price action on futures – be aware illiquid air pockets may exist should additional weakness develop today. The futures market is overbought technically and despite the rather bullish view on butter still prevalent in the industry, market corrections or periods of price weakness are common. Our view as that type of trade – a corrective butter trade – may have started already this week.
After making new lows Tuesday, NFDM futures bounced modestly Wednesday. Trading volume was rather light on the bounce with just 128 contracts changing hands illuminating a pause in the real aggressive selling action. Perhaps this is an end-of-the-month pause. Or perhaps the market has adjusted enough for now. New price lows for futures contracts are typically bearish - an indication of more weakness to come. That said, every futures chart has one line that is lower than all the rest. We’re not calling a bottom here for NFDM, but we’d call for a more mixed to higher trade here in the next few days as traders position into a new month and into another GDT auction event next Tuesday.
Next Tuesday’s GDT auction event is expected to be lower. SGX futures are once again pointing to a decline in the GDT index (-2.0%). While the futures were pointing to a decline last event, the GDT index still continued to climb on mixed results across products. With the last GDT Pulse auction seeing more than a 2% decline in WMP and SMP values, it is more likely that we will indeed see a decline in the index for the upcoming GDT event.
Demand was sharply lower for most buying regions during the last GDT event. It is no guarantee that we will see this again, but volume available is less than it was at this time last year. Typically the GDT auction sees a seasonal decline in volume from January through the end of the season.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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