
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago

Class III futures moved higher Thursday underpinned by firming Dry Whey price action. Spot whey pushed 1.5 cents higher to close at a new 5-month high price of $0.33 and did so on 20 trades with 20 unfilled bids left on the board. Whey futures pushed 0.50 to 2.00 cents higher on 31 trades but it was enough to lend support to Class III midday. Market participants continue to consider the spot cheese market to be ‘relatively stable’ with blocks down 0.25 yesterday. The price of barrel cheese was up 2.75 cents, which puts that market 6.75 cents higher than where we started the week.
Class III and Cheese futures have traded sideways/lower most of the week as the cheese market feels adequately supplied presently and given the modest risk premium already priced into the futures forward curve. That changed slightly yesterday with a more significant buy side push – specifically on Class III market. When the dust settled, over 1,400 Class III contracts traded yesterday and open interest rose by 435 contracts. Cheese saw volume of 420 contracts and open interest rose by 38 contracts. Nothing wildly bullish, but between the firming price action on dry whey, end-user buy side interest (setting budgets for 2024) and seasonal demand (which hasn’t really emerged yet) the path of the least resistance on Class III and Cheese is slowly moving to the upside.
Butter feels different. Butter futures selling was pronounced Thursday as the spot market fell 8.5 cents on 3 trades to close at $3.3950. Have we seen the top? We don’t know. Typically massive price moves like butter has experienced fail just as quickly as they develop. In this case, however, we’ll hold off on prognosticating since salted butter remains anecdotally tight. The market may get another bump here but historically the fireworks may be over. Regardless, the interesting piece of yesterday’s trade was the rather aggressive sell side interest 1H 2024. The $2.50 butter market on the futures board for next year is a big fat round number both sides of the aisle can hang their hat on these days. Budget buyers and inventory sellers will likely continue to hack it out around that level and futures and OTC. When the closing bell rang, 374 butter contracts changed hands and open interest rose by 189 contracts.
NFDM futures took a bit of a breather Thursday but still closed mostly higher on 195 contracts of trade volume (oi up 93). Spot tacked on another 0.50 penny to close at $1.2200 on 4 trades. That said, the burst of buy side energy for NFDM futures may wane somewhat heading into the weekend and ahead of next week’s GDT auction event. But the same story seems to apply, which is to say that sell side interest in 2024 remains rather light overall.
USDA pegged this year's corn yield at 173.0 bushels per acre, with soybeans at 49.6 bpa, both below the previous month and below trade expectations. USDA cut both feed and exports for corn by 25 million bushels apiece to partially offset the smaller crop. As for soybeans, USDA cut exports by 35 million bushels, while adding 10 million bushels back to crush; both of which were justified. The bean numbers suggest that the soybean balance sheet is vulnerable if we see more production cuts combined with weather problems in Brazil. Beans led a post-report rally bolstering the price of corn in its wake.
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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