
CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

- Dairy
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
The GDT Index rose for the third consecutive event yesterday (+4.4%) with SMP/WMP leading the way higher with fats in tow. Cheddar and Lactose were the only two products that fell by the end of the auction. While the increase overall was less than SGX futures predicted (and lower than our +5.8% pre-auction projection), the main takeaway is that prices are now firming more consistently. Volume purchased by North Asia (which includes China) fell from the previous event, but was up from last year. The aggressive buyers at this event were Southeast Asia and the Middle East, who both bought significantly more than the previous Event, although SEA purchases were down slightly from last year.
US NFDM stuttered a little trading mostly mixed yesterday on the view that SMP wasn’t as strong as expected. The futures market remains well supported with buy side interest in 2024 but there remains less enthusiasm – or worry – on their behalf due to a murky outlook. There’s no clear bullish story for NFDM presently and the futures prices are mostly sideways around current levels caught between underpinning buy side support and a lack of sell side aggression. Derivative market offers have been light but did pick up some yesterday with over 300 NFDM contracts trading and open interest rising by 104 contracts.
While we’ll call the NFDM market stable in the high teens this week, spot butter is again flaring its bullish nostrils. Butter rallied 8 cents yesterday to trade one time at $3.4200 – another record spot butter price. Salted butter remains tight. Where will this end? Your guess is as good as ours, but we suspect more upside yet for the spot butter market. The way down – whenever that happens – may be a very quick trip. For now, the backwardation in the market is being stretched with spot now 20 cents over October futures and 39 cents over November. If spot can stay firm this week, expect Q4 futures to capitulate and continue into new high territory. We’re likely in the last leg of this butter move but that doesn’t mean its over – we’re in the middle of the storm.
If butter is in the midst of the storm, maybe cheese is in the eye of the storm. Spot cheese opened and closed yesterday quickly and without trading. There was a block offer at $1.7200 but the bidding interest we saw Monday vanished Tuesday. There is cheese out there and, it appears, as though demand is solid but rather ho-hum. Very little worry from buyers this morning and that may keep spot prices snug just around current levels. It also leaves futures second guessing the recent 3-day bump in prices. Directionally both Class III and Cheese are moving sideways just above recent lows. With Class IV trading a premium and given the seasonality of cheese demand, downside may be limited. But we need some more bullish news to prompt a rally too. Choppy is the look of things early.
Soybeans and meal continue to control trade volume with the former gradually working on a rebound this week and the latter finally slowing its rapid decline as of this morning; we’ve seen a couple flash soybean sales to China in the past two days, signs of hope that Brazil’s stranglehold on the soybean export market might finally be faltering. Conversely, solid early harvest results are giving the bears hope that the supply side could be strengthening as well. Brazilian planters are rolling and that 2023/24 campaign appears to be off to a solid start as well, with StoneX Brazil expecting a solid increase in acreage and another bumper crop in this coming season
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Daily CME spot dairy market price summary


August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.


Daily CME spot dairy market price summary

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