CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
Early Morning Update - October 9, 2023
By: Dairy Team - Chicago, Dairy Chicago
There was buoyancy to both spot cheese prices and Class III/Cheese futures to end last week, but buyer worry remains rather dull for the season. Futures volume dwindled to just over 800 Class III contracts Friday and Cheese futures traded just 255 times with open interest in both markets up modestly. While the spot market has found some support around current levels so far in October, the cheese market appear adequately supplied around current levels for now. That said, seasonally demand can pop. We often say it’s not about how holiday buying starts but rather how it ends that ultimately determines price action over the next 30 days or so. Class III and Cheese were firm overnight.
Although largely bearish views on cheese persist this morning, futures price action has been remarkably stable over the past few weeks. Taking a closer look at lead month November (daily chart below), you can see that new price lows established in September have failed to continue here as we roll into October. Interestingly, Managed Money – those large professional speculators in the market – have added over 1,100 short positions (net short now 4,479) from 9/27 to 10/3. Given the time of year and the lack of follow through price weakness lately, we see a developing risk in short-covering rallies for Class III and Cheese moving into mid-month. Said another way, the environment is ripe for those types of rallies now.
Speaking of rallies, Butter continued its meteoric ascent last week printing a new all-time record high of $3.5025. Bult salted butter is tight and how. No one knows where that load will trade but this is a great reminder than markets can often move higher – or lower – than you think they can or should. In the midst of this, futures were mostly lower Friday. Volume was light – just 82 contracts – and October was the single contract month to close higher – up 3.07 to $331.000. To say the futures market is ‘on edge’ is an understatement. Budget-setting buyers continue to grapple with evasive offers in 2024, but no one wants to be the first to flinch. Marching orders to avoid $3.00 butter are in effect and with January to December butter futures at $252.475 we expect to see more trading develop around this number. Look for a steady/mixed start today.
NFDM futures shrugged off a 0.75 cent bump in the spot price as they closed mostly lower Friday also on somewhat light volume (114 contracts). SMP was the strongest performer at GDT last week, up 6.6%, but that still left the average price at $1.16, which is lower than the CME spot market. Logistics difficulties at US/Mexico boarder are cited as a reason for slower Mexican demand for US powder over the past few weeks. Ultimately the market seems priced right for now and rather well-supported – and well supplied - around current levels. Look for a mixed start to this week.
The grains—wheat in particular—are riding the coattails of crude oil and the commodities in general to open the week after Palestinian militants attacked Israel on a major holiday Saturday. The direct effect on the grains or even crude oil is minimal at this point, but “geopolitical tensions” reign to open the week regardless. Despite and advancing harvest, corn still has a little momentum over the past three weeks with CZ pushing the $5/ bushel mark, and the trade expecting a carryout cut from the USDA Thursday.
- Dairy
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CME Cash Market Summary
Daily CME spot dairy market price summary
Dairy Team - Chicago
- Dairy
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