Excessive Rain Threatens India’s Coffee Crop

By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network

Mon, 22 Aug 2022, 14:28

Alexis Rubinstein

Managing Editor

CoffeeNetwork (New York) – Excessive rains have triggered concerns over crop losses for parts of India’s main coffee producing regions.

According to local weather data, from June 1 to August 19, the Chikkamagaluru district had 16% more rain than normal, Hassan received 51% more rain, and Kodagu received 9% more rain than normal. The rains have stopped this week, and producers and officials have yet to analyze the impact of the surplus rains.

Despite the timely onset of the 2022 southwest monsoon, the rains in June across the country were eight percent lower than the normal 50-year average. However, the pace of rainfall did pick up, and by July registered 17 percent above normal rains.

On August 1, 2022, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) issued its Long-Range Forecast for Rainfall for the second half (August–September) of the 2022 Southwest Monsoon. According to the IMD, rainfall over the country during the second half of the season is likely to be normal. Rainfall volume should come in between 94 to 106 percent of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA (1971-2020) for the August-September period is 422.8 millimeters (mm). The department is forecasting normal August rainfall trending between 94 to 106 percent of the long period average. The LPA (1971-2020) for August is 254.9 millimeters.

Local industry professionals have estimated that losses from the erratic rainfall could result in crop losses of up to 15%.

The Coffee Board of India published their first official “post blossom” forecast for the country’s 2022-2023 coffee crop. Total production is pegged at 393,400 metric tons (6.56 million 60-kg bags), an increase of 15% from the 342,000 metric tons (5.7 million bags) produced in the previous coffee year. Arabica production is forecast at 116,400 metric tons (1.94 million bags), up 22.5% from the 95,000 metric tons (1.5 million bags) of Arabica produced last year. Robusta production is forecast at 277,000 metric tons (4.6 million bags), an increase of 12.15% from the 247,000 metric tons (4.12 million bags) produced in 2021-2022.

Karnataka accounts for more than 70% of the country’s coffee production. The state’s production for 22-23 was pegged at 4.75 million bags.

In 2021-2022, the coffee crop was also adversely impacted by untimely rains. According to a report by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, untimely rains in the coffee growing regions caused damage to the standing coffee crop and hampered the harvesting and processing of Arabica crop. An estimated production loss of 23,140 metric tons was reported in the largest coffee growing state of Karnataka. Unseasonal rainfall and higher temperature could result in conditions that damage and discolor coffee beans. Excess rainfall can dislodge flowers and fruits, and if heavy rain occurs during harvest, increased moisture leads to conditions for mold growth, disease, and excessive fermentation, all of which may increase coffee bean defects.

Alexis Rubinstein

Coffee

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