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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Ammonia

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Anhydrous Ammonia / NH3
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
NH3 values for the fall look like they are going to start high and keep moving higher, unfortunately.
There seem to be too many factors working against any chance of NH3 values dropping.  There is going to be production downtime this summer.  Inventories were already low to start with.  Grain prices continue to hold.  Demand for the 2022 crop appears to demand sizeable units of N.  The world NH3 market is craving product.
As we always say, there is always a path forward that moves away from our expectations.  That still stands true today.  A collapse in the grain markets or urea/UAN markets could weigh heavily on NH3.  Outside of that, tough to see prices down in the coming months.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Inventories on the lower side coming out of spring
Very similar to the same situation as UAN (not as empty but lower than normal inventories), this is a big bull factor for producers.  We just had a huge fall run followed by a pretty decent spring which combined to lower inventories across North America.  Produces see this as a reason to keep prices higher as they know there are plenty of tanks to fill.  With less concern that their own storage will be filled beyond the max, they can be more proud of their product.
Summer fill values were announced and values were actually much better than we anticipated
With grain prices higher and inventories low coming out of spring, we had expected that fill numbers would be significantly higher than where they were announced.  The best way to view this is  it was a gift.  Producers wanted to ensure there was no push back from demand and they were able to clear teir summer produced tonnages.  Very similar to the same situation as UAN (not as empty but lower than normal inventories), this is a big bull factor for producers.  We just had a huge fall run followed by a pretty decent spring which combined to lower inventories across North America.  Produces see this as a reason to keep prices higher as they know there are plenty of tanks to fill.  With less concern that their own storage will be filled beyond the max, they can be more proud of their product.
Fall prepay values have started to be discussed and they are mostly in line with our expectations
Unfortunately, our expectations are not that they would be low priced...solid grain values, tight world supplies and tight North American supplies had us believing that values would be much higher than recent years.  When looking at 2022 demand, production downtime as production plant repairs are made which were delayed by Covid, global tightness and continued high price of grains, it sure feels as though there is still price upside in current values.
Continued shortages around the world supporting prices
There is no way around this.  The entire globe is short of NH3.  We have been seeing some global trade routes that rarely happen because they make little sense unless the market is under immense pressure.  The July Tampa NH3 price was settled at $50 higher than that of June.  This isn't just a North America problem, it is a world problem.
Where are current values in relation to the past
Because we are currently between summer fill and fall prepay values, the current price comparison is not exactly accurate.  What I can tell you is that values are significantly higher than last summer (approximately $270 higher than the same week last year) and the fall prepay value compared to last fall will likely be wider still.
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Urea/UAN maintain current price levels, causing NH3 to appear cheap in comparison – even though most will say that the fall prepay values are pretty high (they are), they are still a discount vs Urea/UAN.  Assuming the upgrades keep their current price levels, we should see NH3 values appreciate to get "in line".
  • 2022 acreage expectations continue to keep N demand high – for anyone that is expecting to see very high N demand for the 2022 crop mix, so far so good.  The USDA report from this week ensured that for the moment.
  • Any major hiccup in bringing nitrogen production facilities back online this summer – inventories are already snug.  Throw in expanded production downtime which would further reduce available inventories and we could enter fall more tightly supplied than normal.
Bearish Factors
  • Fear of unpulled contracts reduces demand – fall prepay contracts are written with the producer in mind because....well, because the producer wrote them.  Tons not pulled by the end of fall season are subject to producers decision.  NH3 values rising?  Tons will be cancelled because they are cheap.  NH3 values dropping?  Buyer still has to pull the tons and may get charged a monthly storage fee of $15 - $20/ton.  Fear of these contract terms may cause demand to wait and see how fall application season goes.
  • Sticker shock from the farmgate – many farmers only look at their fertilizer prices a couple times a year (when they are buying).  For those that have not been watching, the price difference vs a year ago may scare the crap out  of them!!!  If this happens enough, demand will not step forward and would cause unsold inventories to grow on the production/trade level.
  • Grain/Urea/UAN price destruction – current NH3 price levels actually look attractive vs Urea and UAN.  On the grain ratios, it is high but not obscenely so.  However, if any of these products start to see prices dwindle for a long period of time, current NH3 prices might start looking expensive in comparison.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 140 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3
  • Spend 70 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
Pay more attention to the horizontal dotted line as it compares the current phosphate price against new crop values.
  • Very quickly, we start to see if we are high/level/low vs previous years.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the West/East Cornbelt NH3 price vs the new crop price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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image 14647
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Get ready to swallow a high priced N bill this fall...unfortunately, the N market as a whole remains very tight from an inventory standpoint and very positive from a demand standpoint.  
  • Keep everything in perspective.  Yes, NH3 values are going to be extremely high vs last year.  However, it still presents the cheapest for of actual N available.  
  • Be kind to your supplier/retailer/coop.  They didn't cause these values.  They would much rather sell you cheap product and have you be happy vs this and getting yelled at!
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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