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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Ammonia

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

anhydrous Ammonia
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Unless I am vastly mistaken, I think we will see NH3 values rise in the lead up to and thru the fall application season.
Demand is expected to be big.  We are currently using 91M acres of corn in 2022 as a conservative estimate.  That number could easily get bigger.  Inventories are tighter than normal after a superb fall '20 run, very good spring '21 run and higher than normal production outages across North America as delayed repairs are made.
The only reason I think we haven't seen prices up already is due to the current stalemate.  Retailers do not want to run the risk of having to pay massive storage costs if tons are not pulled.  Producers see very little reason to drop pricing.  Eventually someone will blink and with only 60 days until the start of application season for most areas, demand is much more likely to blink.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Honestly....nothing
Seriously, nothing.  The stalemate has been alive and well thru the last month.
As mentioned above, producers see very little reason to drop their prices.  They know that demand this fall will be high.  They know that current NH3 prices are too low vs N upgrades (urea/UAN).  They know there is only 60 days until that magic November 1st date.
However, demand knows that the cheapest NH3 value in the world is no match for a poor fall weather cycle.  Every factor can be pointing toward a phenomenal run.  If mother nature decides to stop us in our tracks (as was seen a few years ago), there is little that can be done and the ramifications for not pulling prepaid product is steep.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For NH3, we use a Midwest Average as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +0.5% or approximately $3 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +7% or approximately $43 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +36% or approximately $174 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +124% or approximately $364 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Fall demand continues to be expected high – while it is a bit early to be making acreage calls for '22, we have started the process and believe we will see at least 91M acres of corn.  That requires a tremendous amount of nitrogen.
  • NH3 is the cheapest form of N available to the farmer – you know it.  I know it.  The producer knows it.  Farmers will err toward the cheapest form of N available.  As long as NH3 remains as cheap as it is vs upgrades (and assuming mother nature plays nice), demand will be higher which will support values going forward.
  • Inventories are tighter than normal for this time of year – last fall was a massive NH3 application run.  That was followed by a pretty darn good spring.  Combined, the result are inventories that are lower than normal.  Couple this with production downtime as plants make repairs that have been delayed by Covid and you have a market where the producer gets to call the shots. 
Bearish Factors
  • WEATHER – any analysis of the NH3 marketplace always needs to end with a single statement:  Weather Permitting.  If we get to November 1 and it is cold/wet/both and it stays that way thru winter, NH3 could be free and it wouldn't matter.  
  • Sticker shock is a real thing – for many farmers across the continent, they only look at the price of inputs a few times a year.  For those that have not look at NH3 values since last summer, there is a huge shock waiting for them.  Sometimes emotion gets the best of us.  That shock could cause some in the market to wait until spring to see if prices improve.
  • Lack of short term demand may cause producers to do a fire sale – let me be up front here, I do not really expect this to happen.  Frankly, I'm struggling with a 3rd bear factor to keep it balanced!!!!  However, if demand delays long enough, producers may make the call to drop prices to sell length.  It would not take them long to get comfortable.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 125 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3
  • Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the Cornbelt NH3 average price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Get everything applied this fall that you can.  Things change.  We all know that.  However, when looking at the tea leaves today, nitrogen in general looks like it is going to see price support for the foreseeable future.   Today, NH3 is your cheapest NH3 option which leaves more money in your pocket.
  • If you apply, order an emergency scuba bottle NOW.  I've heard far too many stories (my dad included) where a hose busted in the middle of the field and the applicator barely got away.  An emergency scuba bottle will give you several minutes of oxygen to calmly walk away from the cloud.  Small investment that could easily save your life.
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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