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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Phosphates
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
At this particular moment, it looks like phosphate values will hold/push higher as we move into the fall season.
A couple short weeks ago, I was still riding the demand destruction train.  While that could still be a possibility, first reports from the wheat country says otherwise.  Phosphate demand has been better than expected which is why we have seen physical barge values jump.
Lot of factors can still change between now and fall.  
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Wheat demand is/was good
Before wheat ground started seeing fertilizer application, my prevailing theme was that these high phosphate prices would cause farmers to scale back application rates to save money.  That is still a very real possibility.
However, we have heard from several who were surprised that not only was demand there, it was actually much higher than anticipated which had them scrambling to get product in place.  
That does not always correlate to corn country doing the same but the fertilizer thinking goes that if wheat country can do it, so can corn country.
There is still 60 days until the start of widespread application so several factors can change.  We need to be vigilant and keep our head on a swivel.
Otherwise, it was a typical slow August
It is VERY normal for August to be quiet and not see much activity.  In fact, the price movements we did see were a bit surprising.
Expect to see a lot more fireworks in next months edition.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For phosphate, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana DAP as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +3% or approximately $20 higher
  • Vs 90 days ago - +6% or approximately $35 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +19% or approximately $98 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +73% or approximately $262 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Wheat country is beating expectations – extremely high phosphate values always brings a chance of demand destruction as farmers scale back their application rates.  That was expected in wheat country.  However, initial reports are that demand is still there, still healthy and has retailers scrambling to replace product.  Fertilizer thinking goes that if  wheat country can justify it, why can't corn country?
  • World remains tightly supplied – on the limited purchase attempts around the world, we are still seeing situations where very few to no offers are made.  That tells us that inventories are incredibly tight globally.
  • Rains are hitting drought stricken areas which improves farmer attitude toward fall – this is more of a North American perspective but we have been dealing with a lot of drought.  Farmers in these areas have been depressed and that does not put them in a spending mood.  However, rains have started to come thru which improves attitudes.  We may see farmers in these areas decide to farm after all!
Bearish Factors
  • Demand destruction could still happen this fall –just because the initial reports from wheat country is positive does not mean that will continue thru the fall.  There is still A LOT of resentment on the farm.  Phosphate is very expensive and a lot of the industry remembers how quickly it reversed course last time it was here.  We could still easily see demand lower for the 2nd half of the calendar year.
  • Lawsuits are still pending regarding the CV duty and could be ruled in favor of importers – this isn't anything I expect to have happen before the end of 2021.  However, eventually a ruling has to be made.  If the ruling goes in favor of imports (Morocco/Russia), then they would be free to import with no penalty.  That alone could see North American values drop $30+ to be in line with global prices once again.
  • Hearing reports that exports from China have been picking up – while it hasn't been enough to switch the market from undersupplied to oversupplied, there have been reports that exports from China have increased.  China is the largest world producer and has the ability to make the market oversupplied or undersupplied.  We will see how they continue.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
  • Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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image 16985
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • DO NOT LET EMOTION GET IN THE WAY OF BUSINESS DECISIONS.  That is not me saying that you should apply normal rates at normal times.  That is also not me saying that you reduce application rates or change your normal times.  You are in charge of your operation.  You are the CEO of your operation.  All I am saying is that emotion always plays a part (especially at these values).  Make sure to make sound business decisions when considering your phosphate program this fall/spring.
  • I still lean toward there being a better than not chance that phosphate will be cheaper by spring but you have to ask yourself, is it worth waiting and jamming everything into the spring to save $25 - $50/ton?
  • If you do decide to wait, TALK TO YOUR SUPPLIER/RETAILER/ETC.  They need to prepare properly the same as you do.  A brief conversation on what your plans are will help them be ready.
  • If you tell your supplier/retailer that you are not going to apply and then change your mind at the last minute, that is on you.  I'm not trying to be crappy with you, just telling you the truth.  Inventories are going to be lower than normal with high price risk.  Doing just in time demand means you pay just in time values.
 
  • Fertilizers

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