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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Potash

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Banner Fertilizer
POTASH
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Spring demand appears to have been even lower than we originally expected.  Production capacity continues to improve vs previous years across North America.  Demand appears very reluctant to step forward for fall tonnages, let alone next spring.  Grain prices continue to take hits which is making the potash/grain ratios, which were already high, even worse.
Why then am I struggling so hard to write and tell you to hold steady and not touch potash with my thinking being that prices are about to plummet?
One word:  Belarus.
Under normal conditions, we would be seeing a lot of downward price pressure on the potash market.  All the stars are aligned for it.  Unfortunately, losing Belarusian potash exports is just too big of a deal for the world market.  They normally account for approximately 20% of global exports so even if N.A. is long product, producers have plenty of sales options around the world.
As mentioned last month, I see potash values relatively steady for the foreseeable future.  Excess inventory carryover across North America will help keep somewhat of a lid on pricing but Canadian producers having plenty of international sales options around the world means there is little reason to drop pricing.  Almost a coin flip...
Should you lock in fall '22/spring '23 potash needs today?
Long answer short - if it works for your operation for the '23 crop, then yes.  If it doesn't, then no.
I know, the above is a complete b.s./political non-answer.  I'll be first in line to admit it.
However, that is where the potash market is today.  
As mentioned above, there are a lot of factors that should be putting downward price pressure on the global market vs the one factor that is pushing price ideas higher.  That is the crazy thing about this market.  The one bullish factor is an even fight to all the bearish factors.
Unfortunately, I do not know what will happen going forward.  One single headline could change everything.  If we wake up tomorrow to a report that Lithuania has changed course and will allow Belarus to export, this market is bearish in a second.  We are not talking $5 - $10 lower.  It would be a major event. 
While a major factor, that does not look likely to happen today which means the producers continue to have sales options.  As long as they have sales options, they have little reason to drop pricing.
Eventually, a lot of new potash production capacity will come online and help sway the scales back to the buyer...today is not that day.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Russian potash is finding export homes, Belarus...not so much
Rather than go into detail the entire story of the war (as many of you are already quite aware of it), here are the crib notes:
  • Russia invades the Ukraine
  • Belarus plays a supporting role with Russia
  • The world is outraged and draws a clear line that it will not longer do business with either nation
  • Lithuania cuts willingness to flow Belarus produced potash thru its country, cutting it from the world
  • Global fertilizer values quickly respond higher
  • Some nations around the world start to blur their line with Russia as they see price discounts
  • Russian exports start to near normal
  • Belarus still cut from the world

Think that gets the majority of it!!

While Russian export totals are down, they are not down nearly as much as expected which helped keep a lid on world pricing.

Belarus is a completely different story.  Recent months have seen their exports plunging which is leaving the world much more tightly supplied than it is used to.  As long as their exports struggle to find homes, the world will remain tightly supplied which equates to high pricing.  Then again, as mentioned before, if Lithuania is convinced to reverse course and allow exports, this market will look very different very quickly.

image 42437
 
North American spring results in high inventory carryover 
Talk about a swing and a miss on expectations.  This winter, we spent a lot of time discussing what would happen in the market if we had an early/on-time spring application season.  Producers were in the drivers seat.  Demand was going to be huge even if application rates dipped.  Inventory levels at the end of spring were going to be non-existent.  It was going to be a market almost solely ran by the producer...
...mother nature always seems to find a way to humble us!
This spring can widely be described as "too".  Large swaths were "too" hot and dry so spring application demand was near non-existent.  Large swaths were "too" wet and cold with farmers not being able to get into fields to apply product.
While all this was occurring, North American production rates were humming along at solidly high levels:
image 42438
The net result is that many tons were left stranded in warehouses or bins.  This market spent much of the fertilizer 2022 year (July 1 thru June 30) expecting huge demand.  It produced product for huge demand.  It put product in place for huge demand.  That demand failed to meet expectations.  This was the result:
image 42439
If it were not for the loss of Belarusian exports, we would be looking at a very different potash market.  Unfortunately, we are all part of a global economy.  What happens halfway around the world has the ability to affect us here at home.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For potash, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $25 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -10% or approximately $81 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - +9.5% or approximately $65 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +51% or approximately $254 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Belarus remains cut off from the world –  unchanged from June and still very important for the global potash complex: Russia seems to be finding its way into the export game which is helping global supplies, but Belarus seems to be shut out still.  Accounting for 20% of global exports or around 7M annually, that is a big hit that creates a tightly supplied marketplace.
  • Strong export options - this ties into the bullet above.  If Belarus remains out of the export game, their normal demand will not just give up and do without potash.  They will start looking for the next best option.  That means the remaining exporters (China/Russia) have more sales options.  If you are selling a tractor and have 1 buyer, you might be a little more willing to cut your price.  If you have 5 buyers, you are likely content to sit back and watch the auction begin...no difference.
  • Strong '23 demand – for the 2023 planting season, demand already looks to be healthy.  Early estimates for U.S. corn acres are at 90M with more upside risk to that number.  Even if application rates are down once again, that will still equate to a big demand number in a market that is already more tightly supplied than normal.
Bearish Factors
  • Lithuania gives in and allows Belarus to flow potash to its ports – today, Lithuania continues to say no to Belarusian potash flows thru its country and out to sea.  While it may not look likely today, all it would take is one announcement regarding a change of approach and Belarus could be back in a big way.  If they return to the international market, that is a lot of tons that appear out of the blue which would lean on prices.
  • Buyer resistance – it is not outside the realm of possibility that demand could disappear until November 1.  I think we can all agree that there will be fall potash application.  However, we could see farmers make the decision to wait until the absolute last minute to make their purchases.  We could also see retailers wait until that farmer demand steps forward to make purchases.  If the market gums up like this, it will put a lot of unsold tons back on the producers and raise the pressure felt by them.    
  • Poor spring = higher inventory carryover - spring across North America never played out as expected.  I know here at home in the U.S., it seems the south and west dealt with hot/dry conditions while the north and east dealt with cold/wet conditions.  While the situations were polar opposite, the result was the same.  Spring preplant conditions were not well suited for potash applications.  That means more tons left over and already in bins.  Producers may have more global options but here in N.A., a lot of space is already filled.
Where are the current potash/grain ratio values today?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA potash price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 42429
image 42430
image 42431
image 42432
image 42433
image 42434
image 42435
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • The global potash market linchpin is Lithuania - there is a sentence I never thought I would write.  As long as Lithuania upholds its ban on Belarusian potash flows, the world is losing a major portion of exports as they account for 7M tons per year.  If the ban remains in place, global inventories remain tight.  If the ban is lifted, position holders might not be able to drop their price fast enough.
  • You need to know what works for you - I have had several farmers reach out and say "I know the price is extremely high but if I lock in all my inputs and sell grain, I am more than happy with that profit".  That is EXACTLY how we need to look at our operations.  I look at it from a purely fertilizer POV.  My POV is not always going to match what makes the most sense for you.  Make sure to look full picture.
  • Think thru the full picture if you are leaning toward skipping fall application - here at home, we typically apply our potash (and phosphate/NH3) in the fall.  That means it is done and out of the way in case of a bad spring.  Just a little less we have to worry about.  If you are the same but current prices have you thinking about waiting until spring, just make sure it doesn't put you in a worse position.  I'm all for holding out to save money.  Just do not take a step that might result in having to skip all together.
  • Remember there is still 4 months until November...but only 4 months until November - honestly, it kind of depresses me that in 4 months it will be cold again!!  Jokes aside, there is still a lot of time before we start to apply which means we can wait and see if things change.  However, 4 months will go by in a heartbeat.  We need to continue to have conversations with our suppliers regarding our needs.  Trust me when I say, if current prices scare you, imagine what it does to them.
 
 
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