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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAn (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
For the remainder of the spring sidedress season, it is likely that values are going to hold or push higher.  We believe that current inventories are very tight.  Urea premiums in relation to UAN values thru much of the fertilizer year caused domestic producers to lean more toward urea production.  Import/export differentials since last July currently has the U.S. market 300 - 400K less than same time last year.  Last, the artic blast took out a lot of produced tons that the market was counting on that cannot be made up in time for spring.  Producers have held values constant for the last 30 days as they had little need to drop their price.  They are content to wait on sidedress demand to step forward and we would not be surprised that values increase if that happens.
Looking ahead to the summer, prices should reset lower...albeit at much higher values than last summer.  Expectations are that these summer fill programs will have values at near or above $100 vs last year.  Expected low spring ending inventories and extremely high corn values will combine for a relatively high priced program.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Honestly....nothing 
As mentioned above, it has been a VERY quiet 30 days for the N.A. UAN marketplace.  Demand has done all that it can to stay away in hopes of seeing price depreciation.  Producers/suppliers, well aware of tight inventories and upcoming demand, have been more than willing to wait out demand with the knowledge that more times than not just in time demand causes values to appreciate.
As of today, the stalemate continues but with it being May 3rd, it cannot last for long.  The calendar is moving quickly.
Where are current values in relation to the past

For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.

  • Vs 30 days ago - unchanged
  • Vs 90 days ago - +53% or approximately $100 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - 143% or approximately $171 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago -  +88% or approximately $136 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Current inventories are tight – not only are inventories tight, it is nearly too late for any imports to arrive in time to meet spring needs.  That combines for a scenario that normally spells higher pricing.
  • Rising grain prices make current UAN values more attractive by the day – we have to admit it, with corn values where they are, we want to raise every single bushel we can possibly raise.  That means we spend a little more on last minute fertilizer needs.  This is especially true for UAN.
  • Pent up demand will need to step forward eventually– when demand finally steps forward, it will hit like a wave and could easily push values up thru the remainder of spring.
Bearish Factors
  • Imports are still to be feared – last summer, you might have noticed that UAN values got rather cheap (or as some might say, where they damn well should be!!!!).  This was due to a pricing strategy to keep Russian imports at bay.  This year with summer resets appearing to be significantly higher, imports could once again flood the market and cause values to fall as we near the fall/winter months.
  • Corn markets will not stay high forever – if you have read any of the other product sections, you are probably already getting tired of this one being listed!  However, it is very important to remember.  It is easy for fertilizer prices to go up when grains jump almost daily.  If that trend goes negative, it becomes much more difficult for values to hold...
  • UAN is currently premium priced in relation to urea (on a price per pound of actual N basis) – modern nitrogen production facilities have the ability to turn the production "dial" a little more toward urea or UAN, depending on the marketplace.  If current values continue to hold, it will make more sense to continue making UAN.  If more UAN is produced, that means supplies increase.
WHAT IS THE “VALUE” TODAY VS PREVIOUS YEARS?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially;
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall.

We look at the ratio “value” to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

Pay more attention to the horizontal dotted line as it compares the current phosphate price against new crop values.

  • Very quickly, we start to see if we are high/level/low vs previous years.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

image 12501
image 12502
image 12503
 
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • I wish I could sit here and write that sidedress UAN values were going to start to crater and everyone that is holding out will be rewarded.  I just cannot lie to you like that.  Given everything I am currently seeing, I think prices are going to hold.  Maybe as we get very near to June, price slides may begin but right now, it is hard to see.
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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