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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
The last 30 days have been pretty lackluster but my fears of what 2nd half spring will do is growing.
As you will read in the NH3 section, demand for it has not been great with weather causing substantial issues.  You know it is bad when farmers are this far behind on planting with corn prices where they are.
You might be asking why that has anything to do with UAN and why I'm talking about it here in the "what I think will happen" section...
Well, if you are going to plant corn, you need to apply N.  The Eastern Cornbelt is where we forecasted the majority of the spring NH3 to be applied/purchased.  If weather opens and allows farmers into the fields, do you think they delay planting further and apply NH3 or go ahead, plant and convert the NH3 to either urea or UAN?  I know I do not speak for everyone but getting that seed in the ground is priority 1.
So if NH3 is not getting applied and looks less likely to be applied, fair to say that UAN demand is growing.  If the spring played out normally (it isn't), we were going to end with low UAN supplies.  Now, with more demand leaning toward UAN, it cuts that ending inventory level even more which puts more pricing power in the hands of the supplier/producer.
I think in the next week or two, UAN will need to fight off slight bearishness due to NH3 and urea possibly dropping further but once we get passed that point, we will see a UAN demand surge that should help buoy prices for the remainder of spring.  
should you buy your Spring '23 uan needs today?
No 
Short term, it looks like UAN pricing has staying power with a lot of factors lining up in the producers favor.
However, spring '23 is a full year away.  There are so many things that can change between now and then.
Today's values, which is likely what would be offered for next spring, are some of the highest we have ever seen.  To a certain extent, the high price is offset by high grain prices...but not completely.  The current and future corn/UAN ratios are still very high priced vs the past several years.
Now, I can admit that I think the market struggles to get back to those types of ratios.  Those were made during a weak price period and this current cycle is much more a bull cycle.  We have to reset our expectations.
That said, from my POV, I struggle with locking in the highest price ever seen a full year ahead of when I need it when the ratio is as poor as it is today.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
UAN manufacturers remain in control of discussions 
This is becoming a much bigger issue for those in the North American markets.
  • Spring NH3 is not going as well as many had hoped/as we had forecasted.  Could mean more UAN demand than anticipated.
  • Counter vailing / anti-dumping duty case against Russia and Trinidad continues to plow forward, making it extremely difficult for product from either area to come here.
  • Grain prices continue to rally which means less likely that farmers will reduce application rates.
  • Continue to forecast low ending inventories for spring which means producers have less need to chase sales to clear tonnages.
I could go on but you get the picture.  It all adds up to a market where the producer/supplier is still very much in control.  It will not always be this way but today...it is.
image 30286
Russia/Ukraine conflict strikes fear in buyers hearts (unchanged from April)
Isn't it funny how so many of us said that 2022 couldn't possibly be worse than 2021...
So the Russian invasion of Ukraine is happening in a big way.  I'm not going to get into the politics of it because that isn't why you are signed up for this information.  We look at it strictly from a fertilizer POV and there are 2 main things that scare me.
1.  Russia's UAN export size - in the last couple years, Russian UAN exports have accounted for anywhere from 25 - 34% of the global total.  One thing that has surprised me in regards to the invasion has been the united front the world has taken.  Almost everyone has stepped up, spoken out about the invasion and have take ever increasing heavy steps toward cutting Russia from the world economy.  I never imagined the world would agree on anything but here we are.  While it is great that we are seeing the world punish them, we have to be aware that if Russia loses the ability to export, the world loses A LOT of UAN.  If demand remains steady and supplies drop, Econ 101 says that prices go up.
2.  Russia could cut off natural gas flows to Europe - I've had several push back on this idea saying "there is no way he would do it".  I agree that it is not likely but we also didn't think he would really invade Ukraine.  We have also seen Putin starting to ratchet nuke talks higher.  Never say never.  If he were to shut down the pipeline, take a look at the above list of production.  Europe accounts for a lot of tons.  If that pipeline shuts down, governments will allocate limited supplies to its people, not to the industrial complex.
Preplant NH3 is STILL not going well
Last month, I talked about the below:
For every 1 ton of NH3 that does not get applied, it can take up to 2.5 tons of UAN to make up the difference.
1 ton of NH3 has 1,640 pounds of actual N
1 ton of 32% UAN has 640 pounds of actual N
1,640 / 640 equals 2.5
Our current estimates for spring NH3 is 1.75M and judging by the standing water I saw in fields on a flight to Ohio and back, I'm leaning toward the actual number being lower.  Bigger than expected demand on UAN will only make the S&D worse.
Unfortunately, this has not improved.  Spring NH3 is struggling and very real questions are starting to be asked about how good/bad the run will end up being.  If the market determines that spring NH3 was a "failure" and that corn acres are unchanged or higher, that will mean a big boost to UAN demand which we all know producers/suppliers LOVE.
Otherwise, it is dead quiet
Buyers are not stepping forward for further needs until the absolute last minute.  Seller are not cutting their price ideas because they likely still believe that the S&D is tight and frankly, dropping the price today would do nothing for their sales book.
That means we continue in a market that is dead quiet.  Eventually, and likely before the June report is written, we will see action.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - -1% or approximately $6 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - +11% or approximately $64 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +16% or approximately $85 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +114% or approximately $333 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Russia continues to be shut out from the world economy (unchanged from April) – as long as Russia continues to invade Ukraine, much of the free world will not do business with Russian companies.  There appears to be no end in sight for this conflict.  With most of Russia's UAN exports going to NATO members, that means these exports will be lost for some time which will keep the global market tight.
  • Spring NH3 is not going well so far (unchanged from April– it has been wet in the east and dry in the west.  Neither situation is conducive to putting on NH3.  UAN is expected to have lower than normal inventory levels at the end of spring and that is using normal N splits.  If NH3 fails to meet forecast, that means that UAN demand will jump.
  • The counter vailing/anti-dumping duty case is approved this summer (unchanged from April- there is still some hope in the UAN market that the final decision on the duty case will be no.  Unfortunately, the history of these cases tell us otherwise.  If we get to the summer and the final vote is to approve the duties, Trinidad and Russian exports will not come to the U.S. which means U.S. producers remain in control.
Bearish Factors
  • Putin is removed from power and replaced with someone that the world is willing to do business with (unchanged from April– although unlikely, it is possible.  Today, it feels like the world is upset with Putin, not with the rest of Russia.  If Putin is removed and Russia gives up the invasion, we could see the world quickly open its arms once again.  This would not only mean regaining Russian UAN exports but would also likely cause European natural gas prices to plummet.
  • Spring NH3 does better than expected – this is a factor that was listed in April but not completely the same as April.  Last month, it was still more of a question of how good or bad the spring NH3 run was going to be.  Today, it is becoming more of a question of how bad the spring NH3 was and will continue to be.  Shortfalls in NH3 demand likely mean increases in UAN demand.
  • High price causes application rates to drop (unchanged from April– don't get me wrong, I do not expect N application rates to drop 50%.  It isn't possible.  However, we could see those rates down 5 - 10% somewhat easy.  Remember that a small percentage of a big number is still a big number.  Those types of shifts can alter the S&D and cause prices to drop.
Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 36183
image 36184
image 36185
image-20220503101406-1
 
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • If you are in a region that had a solid fall NH3 run, please realize that what happens in other parts of the country still matter to your area.  If the Eastern Cornbelt is finally realized to have had a crap NH3 run, that means UAN demand is going to grow.  If supplies remain stagnant and demand grows, econ 101 says prices should rally.  Just because it doesn't happen at home doesn't mean it doesn't matter at home.
  • If you are in a region that needed to get NH3 on this spring and it hasn't happened, the sooner you make the switch/purchase/etc. for an alternative N source, the better off you will be.  If it is happening to you, it is happening to your neighbors.  Better to be ahead of the curve than playing from behind.  You want to be a leader.
  • But do not make that call too quickly.  If you need to put on spring NH3, it hasn't happened, you are considering making a full switch to UAN or urea but there is still a good chance you can get NH3 on before planting, do not freak out and make an emotional decision.
 
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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