By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
I will admit, there are things that I am watching that could change my mind...eventually. CF may win its counter vailing/anti-dumping duty case against Trinidad/Russia. That could, once again, put North American in control as this would cut 80% of normal imports. We could see grains rally even further than they already are in expectations for needing to purchase even more acres next year.
In the end, no one knows. It is all just educated guesses. That said, my educated guess today says no. Let's wait and see what happens when summer fill/spring prepay programs come out. If they start anywhere close to today's values, demand is likely to lock up and walk away. This would put the pressure back on the sellers.
All this said, while we could see a slight bump if all the N.A. demand hits at the same time, the forward price direction looks like it is going to be mostly downward.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/top-fertilizer-maker…
Do not get me wrong, this does not raise the percentage chance of a no vote happening significantly. Where it was 10% or less before, I put my chances around 25%. Still a small chance but time will tell.
I've kept the world UAN capacity/export information below as I think it is important to know where stuff comes from and typically goes.
Today, UAN is a 30 cent PREMIUM to urea. I am not a farmer...but if I were, I know which direction I would be pointing. Does that mean 100% of remaining N demand goes to urea? Absolutely not, but it also isn't zero...this will be a serious question as we try to figure out how much N demand is left this spring.
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