StoneX logo

Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

UAN (28% / 32%)
 
Josh Linville
Vice President- Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Right now, it looks like prices will drop.  However, that is more a function of not having summer fill programs announced.  Values are still seen near late spring values.  Summer fill programs will be cheaper, we just do not know by how much.
The typical nitrogen producer approach to the summer is to release NH3 priced programs first and then follow with UAN.  We finally saw summer fill NH3 programs last week but nothing on fall NH3 prepay programs.  It's coming but a matter of when.
That means we are all waiting until we hear what the values are and it is hard to call.  Pricing will be a discount to today and is worth waiting to see what comes out.  Just do not get too excited about those values dipping huge.
should you buy your Spring '23 uan needs today?
I wouldn't
Today, there is little reason to lock in spring 2023 values.  The derecho that we are watching form in eastern South Dakota and is forecast to blow thru northern Iowa/southern Minnesota may change that POV but with corn numbers where they are right now, it is a hold for me.
Hopefully I will have more to share in the coming weeks.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
U.S. counter vailing/anti-dumping duty case finalization is imminent
Another month into the calendar with nothing to really update you with.
The case for a counter vailing/anti-dumping duty rate against Trinidad and Russian produced UAN should be coming to a close shortly.  The final hearings are to be set where both sides will argue for and against the case.  Then a simple majority vote will be handed down.
Historically, by this point in the case, it is a rubber stamp yes.  The DOC/ITC would not go thru all this work if it wasn't prepared to vote yes.  However, we continue to believe there is a higher chance that this bucks the trend.  It's a small chance but a chance.
  • Midterms for U.S. voting - politicians are looking for soapbox topics.  Food supply/scarcity has become a popular talking point.  Politicians can put their weight behind voting no.  While these cases are supposed to be decided upon based merely on the information at hand, the board is made of humans and humans can be swayed.
  • Recent commentary by CF reps - again, this shouldn't be an issue...but it might.  If you click the Bloomberg article link below, you will read what I am talking about.  A rep from CF was quoted saying "If US farmers do not buy all the nitrogen the company has, the company can ship it elsewhere".  We are living in a period where fears are at all time high's that we cannot produce enough food to feed the world.  Comments like this are likely to be repeated during the hearing as an example of the food producer being held hostage.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-05-18/top-fertilizer-maker…

Whether this case gets voted down or gets approved will have huge implications on the U.S. UAN marketplace.  A vote for it will mean that there is only about half a million tons of imports from the world that the U.S. can call upon (North Africa and Other in the numbers below).  A vote against it would mean that Trinidad and Russia can start normal flows once again and historically they have accounted for 80% of U.S. imports.  More competition typically results in lower prices.

 

 
image 42602
Russian exports still struggling...but its getting better
As we have mentioned the last couple months, Russian exports of all fertilizers have dropped since they invaded the Ukraine...but it continues to improve.
Many nations around the world originally took a very hard and clear line against doing business with Russia.  Since then, many of those lines have become blurred.  The temptation of ample supplies at a somewhat discounted price outweighed morals in the end.
The global S&D continues to be tighter than normal as their export flow has slowed but it is vastly improved from original expectations.  That is a win for lower price ideas.
image 42601
Where are current values in relation to the past
For UAN, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - -19% or approximately $115 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -24% or approximately $150 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -15% or approximately $85 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - +65.5% or approximately $190 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • U.S. counter vailing/anti-dumping case is approved – if it is eventually approved (likely case), then 80% of normal U.S. imports will be removed which means less competition and less supply.  I would go into more detail but I do not want to depress you further.
  • Solid 2023 demand expected – extremely early 2023 crop acreage mix (90M acres corn / 49.5M acres wheat) are pointing to another big fertilizer demand cycle.  Couple big demand with a lack of import competition...well, you know what I'm getting at.
  • European production fears continue to rise - as of this morning (July 5), European natural gas values had skyrocketed once again.  That means the cost of production for every N product rose with it (UAN included).  While we have only heard of one plant doing a short term outage due to high input costs, the market will be extremely fearful of more to come.
Bearish Factors
  • Demand will be hesitant – not only are UAN values extremely high vs historical numbers, it is also high vs urea/NH3.  No, summer fill resets have not been announced but even against aggressively low price expectations, UAN looks to remain a solid premium to both alternatives.  This is a recipe for demand to step away to see how things play out.
  • Maybe European natural gas values plummet...not likely but maybe? – yes I am grasping at straws.  Kind of hard to come up with bear factors right now...
  • The counter vailing / anti-dumping duty case gets voted no – in a repeat from June, while the chances of a no vote are small, they are not zero.  In the small chance they vote the case down or the Biden administration does an executive order against it, imports will jump.  More competition = possible lower prices.
Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 42607
image 42608
image 42610
image 42613
image 42614
image 42615
image 42616
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Not only should you be talking to your supplier about your coming needs, but it is probably worthwhile having an earlier than normal conversation with your banker.  I know no one wants to hear that but the cost to raise a crop next year is going to be substantially higher than normal.  Better to be prepared and have that uncomfortable conversation than it is to wait until the last minute and get bad feedback.
  • Be prepared.  I have no clue how this thing plays out.  If the counter vailing/anti-dumping duty case is affirmed, get ready for continued high UAN costs.  If it is denied, prices should come under fire, though not anywhere near 2020 values.  Regardless the outcome, keep your eyes open.
 
 
 
  • Fertilizers

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.