Farmer Fertilizer Focus - UAN

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Fri, 04 Nov 2022, 20:02

November '22 UAN (28% / 32%)

Josh Linville

Vice President- Fertilizer

major global uan export location price graph

As mentioned in other products, the price graphs should be viewed by their price direction, not their absolute price. The first graph looks at the Black Sea and NOLA values on a short ton basis. The second looks at the same points except in metric ton. Both are in USD.

What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward

As has been the case, UAN remains one of the more boring fertilizer products out there. Manufacturers remain in control of price ideas which would normally mean higher prices coming. However, UAN's premium to urea as well as a general market push back at these levels have manufacturers happy to keep values where they are.

And that is what we expect for the short term - nothing. There is little reason for manufacturers to reduce their prices today. 2023 nitrogen demand looks really good based on early acreage estimates. Grain values continue to hold. The start of the fall NH3 application run (still way too early to definitively call) has been lackluster meaning more spring demand if the story holds. A solid chunk of European production remains offline meaning they remain a solid buyer (U.S. has been a net exporter every month from May to September).

However, there are reasons for manufacturers to not get more greedy. European plant restarts have dominated the nitrogen headlines meaning that demand honey hole may dry up soon. Farmers are pointing to urea as a cheaper nitrogen alternative and are threatening to move their practices that way. While fall NH3 has not started well, it is far from conclusive.

The safe bet for manufacturers is to keep prices steady and control sales volumes with small offerings. So far, that seems to be the strategy they are adopting which means a quiet UAN marketplace.

should you buy your Spring '23 uan needs today?

Keep layering...if it makes sense

Nothing to change here from last month because very little has changed:

If retail values are keeping up with replacement values (which a lot of times they lag), you are probably very near or above the $1/lb of actual N for UAN. That is stout. Especially this far in advance of spring.

However, if you are sitting there reading this thinking "well, it can't get any worse than this"...don't. Haven't the last couple years taught you anything?!!!!

Right now for UAN, I am a huge advocate for if you buy your inputs, sell some of your outputs. My biggest fear is not locking in the ratio today and it improving. If we lock in today, we are happy with the result and we shouldn't look back. My biggest fear is that someone buys their UAN, and then grain prices fall out or the other way around. That is what destroys an operation.

I understand that forward selling comes with risks. Work with your elevator/grain buyers/etc. to figure out what works best for your operation.

What has happened in the last 30 days?

Some European production plants are restarting!

This is not a story I thought I would be writing anytime soon!

When Putin shut off natural gas flows to Europe, prices skyrocketed. Values which had normally been in the single digits skyrocketed to over $100mmbtu. The immediate response from nitrogen producers were to stop production. As Russia continued to invade Ukraine and "someone" sabotaged the Nordstream pipelines, many experts claimed that natural gas values were remain extremely high for a very long time.

Sometimes, markets have a way of making really smart people not look so smart...

As of this writing, the Dutch TTF futures have closed the week with all future months no higher than upper $30's. This did not seem feasible a few short months ago. The result has been a surprising number of nitrogen plant restarts.

Some plants, like those in Poland, officially announced their restart. Others have been highly rumored but have not officially announced. This makes sense from their POV. If they tell the world that their production (supply) is returning, that also means their regional demand is dropping. This is a bearish event and let's face it, they like higher prices.

More promising are rumors that even more plants are coming online in Europe. Some are said to be restarting because it makes financial sense (plants are profitable again). Others are rumored to be restarting because if this process is not done now, there is a chance the plant never restarts. Better to lose a little bit of money on the short term to keep the plant viable for when market conditions improve.

While a lot of damage has already been done for lost production time as well as some plants still being offline, this has been a positive piece of news for buyers that was not highly expected.

U.S. producers continue to export

U.S. UAN producers have been eager to backfill supplies in Europe which were lost with production downtime. European markets have been a premium netback price vs that of North American buyers and so tons have been exported.

Just this week, the import/export numbers were updated thru September 2022 and a surprising thing stood out. While we knew that exports were occurring, we were surprised how much. For the first time in the history of UAN (from the data we have reviewed), the U.S. has been a net exporter for 5 months in a row. Plainly put, the U.S. is exporting more UAN than it is importing.

For those that might be wondering why it is difficult to get a price from their coop/retailer, this is a big part. With manufacturers having export opportunities, they are shipping tons that direction and being cagey on making domestic sales. While your retailer would love to get you any price that you want (can't blame them for liking to make sales), this one has been out of their hands.

NOLA UAN is expensive vs urea

Many in the marketplace scoff at the idea that N.A. farmers will switch between nitrogen products. "They are set in their ways" or "they do not have the equipment" are common reasons for that reaction.

To a point, they are right. The switching between products is not huge. 5% to 15% is what we typically think. However, many forget that a small percentage of a really big number is still a big number that can sway markets.

Today, when looking at NOLA (your inland values likely show different), UAN is an incredible premium vs UAN. In fact, this week's values puts that premium at 28 cents. With the national corn nitrogen application average being around 150 pounds of actual N per acre, that equates to $42/acre savings (not including any other application additions/subtractions). That ain't nothing!

This is a situation that will need to be tracked. Eventually, enough demand will flow from one product to another to sway price ideas. It is still well ahead of decision time but no doubt this is something most farmers are looking at.

Where are current values in relation to the past

NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana

Vs 30 days ago - flat to current market
Vs 90 days ago - +39% or approximately $155 higher
Vs 6 months ago - -12% or approximately $74 lower
Vs 1 year ago - +1% or approximately $4 higher

U.S. Midwest Average

Vs 30 days ago - flat to current market
Vs 90 days ago - +25% or approximately $110 higher
Vs 6 months ago - -13% or approximately $84 lower
Vs 1 year ago - -12% or approximately $78 lower

Black Sea (Russia)

Vs 30 days ago - flat to current market
Vs 90 days ago - +32% or approximately $140 higher
Vs 6 months ago - -13% or approximately $87 lower
Vs 1 year ago - -1% or approximately $8 lower

Bull/Bear Factors

Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.

Bullish Factors

European production fails again – today, buyers can celebrate European production coming online once again. While it has not meant lower values, it at least seems to put a cap on values. However, winter is coming. If we start losing European production plants again, expect markets to react.
Strong 2023 demand outlook – we originally had our 2023 corn acreage set at 90M. Then we revised it up to 91M. In the last several days, given how U.S. harvest appears, we moved it higher still to 93M. There are others pointing to 95M or higher...and it is hard to argue today. Regardless, N demand is going to be big once again.
North America has already exported A LOT - as mentioned above, the U.S. has been a net exporter of UAN from May to September. There is a solid chance that trend continues as we get in Q4 '22 trade information. Not only are we exporting but N.A. producers seem to be making more urea/less UAN this year which further tightens our S&D. Will we be able to bring in enough to offset what was lost?

Bearish Factors

Europe continues to turn back on - this is why we continue to consider low probability scenarios when the ramifications can be huge! I never thought Europe would turn on like it is but that is certainly the case with rumors of more on the way. As long as this continues, European demand drops which pushes supplies elsewhere around the world. Supplies rise + demand drops = hopefully lower prices.
The price is high enough to influence demand – UAN values are very high vs urea. UAN values are very high vs NH3. UAN values are high vs...well, every crop I look at. We have barely started October so there is a lot of time before spring. This raises the chance that demand start switching away.
North American supplies better than expected – this can come in many forms. The market is expecting major exports to Europe...but we did not see anything huge in the July export number. Carryover inventory from spring was very heavy. Producers could be producing more UAN than the market expected. All of these and more could lead to much more supply than the market thinks is out there. If demand remains the same and supplies are higher than expected, Econ 101 says prices should fall. Not saying it happens, but this is a point I cannot get out of my head.

Where are the current uan/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN
Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of UAN

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA UAN price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

Josh Linville’s focal points

I'm changing this going forward simply because I was struggling with what I should put here. Typically, I fill it with general statements that a lot of times you all do not need.

When I look at markets, I try to find the one/couple points that are most important to me that tell the story. That is what I will start doing on this section:

European production - plain and simple, as long as Europe production is offline, world supplies are tight. They account for 1 of every 5 tons of UAN produced on planet earth. While the chance is not large, there is a chance production ramps up again so we need to watch for that. However, with the chance being so small, we need to proceed as if that is the case.
Price spread to urea and NH3 - at least here in North America, UAN is a HUGE premium to other N alternatives. If producers think for a second that the wide price spread this far away from spring doesn't have farmers considering changes, they are fooling themselves. If UAN remains this steep a price and such a premium, it is very likely that we will see demand switch away and force the price to come back to normal...whatever that is...
How UAN producers approach the market - unfortunately for buyers, there are limited producers of UAN in North America and around the world. It simply isn't the huge product that urea/NH3/etc. are. That limited number of suppliers means prices are less likely to fall apart as the few producers can be more patient on the marketplace.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

This material should be construed as market commentary, merely observing economic, political and/or market conditions, and not intended to refer to any particular trading strategy, promotional element or quality of service provided by the FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”), StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (“SFFC”) or StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”). SFI, SFFC and SXM are not responsible for any redistribution of this material by third parties, or any trading decisions taken by persons not intended to view this material. Information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to its accuracy. Contact designated personnel from SFI, SFFC or SXM for specific trading advice to meet your trading preferences. These materials represent the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and do not necessarily reflect the viewpoints and trading strategies employed by SFI, SFFC or SXM. The FCM Division of StoneX Financial Inc., a subsidiary of StoneX Group Inc., is a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a futures commission merchant and commodity trading advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. is currently registered as a Futures Commission Merchant or equivalent in all provinces of Canada and is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada.

Fertilizers

This material should be construed as the solicitation of an account, order, and/or services and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the individual authors or presenters. It does not constitute an individualized recommendation or take into account the particular trading objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual customers.

The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.

References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.

StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.

StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.

This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.

StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).

SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.

StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.

StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.

StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.

StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.

Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.

The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Explore subscriptions

Fertilizer's Spring Reckoning Now Runs Through the Strait of Hormuz

A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.

Editorial TeamTue, 04 Aug 2026, 18:36

Fertilizers

Fertilizer’s Hidden Chokepoints Stretch from Hormuz to the Nord Stream

Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.

Editorial TeamThu, 30 Jul 2026, 05:47

Fertilizers

The PM Commstock Report

Afternoon Market Review Includes - The cattle industry enters a critical year, with markets facing seasonal pressures, climate impacts, and the echoes of historical trends.

Commstock InvestmentsFri, 24 Jul 2026, 19:38

Grains & Oilseeds
Energy
Renewable Fuels
Cocoa
Coffee
Cotton
Fertilizers
Meats & Livestock
Currencies

StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.