By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer
However, summer values appear likely to drop in value (according to the paper market)...just not nearly as much as some would hope.
Like all the others, we expect that this tender will give us an intimate look at the markets perspective of the coming months.
Spring season continues to churn along in the U.S./N.A. territory
With grain prices continuing to rise near daily, retailers and farmers have been much less shy about securing their spring needs. The focus has been much more toward maximizing yields rather than cost savings on the farm. Amazing how much everything has changed since last August!
Concerns are rising of another repeat of 2008
For those of you who were not around in 2008, corn markets were on absolute fire on their way up. The effect of that was urea values which reached $800 - $900/st at NOLA/Gulf of Mexico. While the market is much more conservative than what it was back then (people were buying 2 - 3 seasons ahead at that time), there is a growing concern that we could see a similar outcome if corn continues higher. This continues to support higher price ideas and is a very highly discussed topic.
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either can be misleading
We look at the ratio “value” to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer
Would you rather:
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
Pay more attention to the horizontal dotted line as it compares the current phosphate price against new crop values.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
These graphs looks at the NOLA Urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
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A cluster of positives has finally tilted the fertilizer market toward buyers, from China's return to normal urea exports to fresh Moroccan phosphate cargoes bound for the U.S. Yet the whole picture still hinges on one waterway, and a prolonged standoff around the Strait of Hormuz could unwind those gains before spring.
Fertilizer supply now depends on a handful of contested shipping lanes and pipelines stretching from the Middle East to Northern Europe. Here is how the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, Russia’s shadow fleet and the Nord Stream pipeline are reshaping where nitrogen, phosphate and potash actually move.
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