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Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Urea
 
Josh Linville
Director - Fertilizer
What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
I'm sorry but I see values continuing to hold and/or push higher.
European natural gas prices are cutting production there.  The Chinese government is taking steps to stop exports.  Global inventories feel tighter than they normally due and world demand is just now starting to wake up.
This isn't to say that prices cannot go down.  It just doesn't seem likely.
Unfortunately, I think in the coming months we will challenge or beat historical high values that were set in 2008.
Remember, I'm just the messenger.
What has happened in the last 30 days?
Hurricane Ida's impact was worse than previously believed
When the hurricane made landfall, we expected minimal damage to the production facilities in the Delta region.  These plants cost billions of dollars and are built by engineers who are used to building in high risk climates.  From that vantage point, we were right as the reports were that there was little to no impact.  However, I overlooked one thing: you cannot run a plant if you do not have electricity...
In the end, approximately 2 - 3 weeks of production were lost (producers do not give details).  Prior to the storm, producers had been linked to buying physical barges in an attempt to catch up on shipments (they were low on inventories and behind on loadings).  Losing 2 - 3 weeks only made that worse.
Ultimately, CF claimed force majeure on their previous sales contracts.  They didn't cancel all tonnages but a large percentage.
Logistics continue to be a mess
It doesn't matter what logistical value chain you are a part of, it has probably been struggling.
Vessel freight rates from the Arab Gulf to NOLA are normally $25/MT.  Today, that rates sits at $81/MT.
Barge freight rates in the U.S. have been climbing after many were lost in the storm due to damage/sinking/etc.
Trucks are extremely difficult to find as dry bulk lanes have run many out of the business.
Rail is not typically seen as reliable.
As logistics continue to be a mess, that means that delivered prices go up.  That means higher prices to the farm.
European natural gas prices have spiked
The fact that this hasn't gotten more press surprises me.  Those in Europe are going to be shocked at their heating bills this winter.
For the fertilizer sector, that means losing a lot of production due to inability to make money.  If the production plant hedges their inputs and had been long natural gas contracts, they make more money selling that back to the market.  If they didn't hedge, there will lose money with every ton produced.  The endgame is that production goes down and a supply blackhole opens.
The world was already tighter than normal on inventories.  It didn't need this help...
Concerns growing on Chinese government actions
Reports are that the Chinese government has been "asking" phosphate producers to stop exports.  If that is happening, urea is likely not far behind.  This is a huge deal as China represents approximately a third of world operating capacity.  Anytime China is exporting heavily, supplies seem adequate and/or heavy.  When they pull out, the world seems snug.
Today, we fear that they stay out of the market going forward.
India tender announced and initial news is bullish
Our estimates are that India needs to secure 1.5MMT on this purchase tender.  The 1st round of news has been released and it is bullish.  Not only did they only get sub 2MMT offered (not much when considering they need 75% of that total), most of the tons offered are well above the low prices set.  
For those not aware, India can only purchase tons that negotiate down to the lowest price on the west coast and east coast.  With so many tons WELL above the L1 (lowest price), it is hard to believe they will get what they need.
If they fall short, they will need to reapproach the market with another tender which will be seen as extremely bullish by the marketplace.
Where are current values in relation to the past
For urea, we use NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana as our base point as it is the easiest spot to track.
  • Vs 30 days ago - +29% or approximately $145
  • Vs 90 days ago - +49% or approximately $210 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - +66% or approximately $255 higher
  • Vs 1 year ago - +191% or approximately $420 higher
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Chinese government ask urea producers to slow/stop urea exports as well – they have already done it to phosphate producers so it is fair to assume urea isn't far behind.  With China representing around a third of global production capacity, that move could hurt the global market VERY quickly.
  • Global/domestic logistical issues persist – bulk vessel freight rates have risen insanely (normal AG to NOLA = $25 / current AG to NOLA = $81).  Not only that, but barge rates are rising with limited barges available.  Trucks are harder and harder to find.  Rail is tough to count on.  As logistics struggle, the delivered price goes up.
  • Global energy crunch continues thru winter and into next April '22 – as long as the world is struggling with energy (high natural gas prices), it is safe to assume that urea prices will remain firm.
Bearish Factors
  • China pulls a 180 on coal energy – does this seem likely?  No.  Is it possible?  Yes.  This is the same nation that built a hospital in 10 days.  They can turn things around in a hurry.  If they start ramping up coal production, we could see urea production rise with it.
  • Global natural gas prices plummet – global natural gas prices tank, production comes back online.  Easy as that!
  • Demand falters at these values – how much can global farmers truly pay for N?  Eventually there is a breaking point.
ARE WE BETTER OR WORSE OFF THAN WHERE WE WERE?
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially;
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall.
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
  • Spend 130 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 50 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
image 19074
image 19075
image 19076
 
Josh Linville’s Thoughts
  • Talk to your supplier about your plans.  Are you going to go heavier beans this year and need less N? Talk to you supplier.  Are you going to stay normal rotations or heavier corn?  Talk to your supplier.  Are you going to plant corn but not going to pull the trigger on price until the last minute?  Talk to your supplier.  
  • Prices are up 3 fold over last year.  No one in the supply chain wants that risk on their mind.  If you tell your supplier that you are not going to need it and change your mind last minute, it may not be sitting there waiting for you.  Better to plan WITH your supplier rather than seeing them as the enemy...this year!
  • Use today as a learning opportunity.  The next time we have a chance to buy urea and sell corn/wheat/etc at a low ratio, remember today.  Not sure when that day will come, but it will come.
 
 
 
  • Fertilizers

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