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Featured | Outlook for the soybean market in Q2 2022

By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil

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Outlook for the soybean market in Q2 2022
 
Ana Luiza Lodi
analuiza.lodi@stonex.com
 
US CROP WILL BE CENTRAL TO ENSURING THE BALANCE OF GLOBAL SOYBEAN SUPPLY AND DEMAND
 
BEARISH FACTORS
  • Delayed US export sales to China;
  • Planting Intentions indicate strong US soybean acreage growth;
  • Chinese imports are lagging behind the same period a year ago;
  • Restrictive measures to contain coronavirus in China.
 
fatores altistas
  • La Niña occurrence; 
  •  Dry weather affecting South American crops;
  • StoneX estimates Brazilian production at 122 million tonnes;
  • Ukraine's invasion could affect the supply of sunflower oil.
 

 

In the soybean market, the first quarter was marked by the impacts of the dry weather in the South American crop, the beginning of the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, concerns on the demand side (China), and the US 2022/23 crop planning.

Soybean quotes at CBOT- (cents/bushel)    

image 35598
Source: CME. Design: StoneX.
 

With the sharp losses, especially in Brazil, estimates indicate that the world consumption of the oilseed will be above production in the 2021/22 cycle, even with the prospects of a lower Chinese demand, reinforced by the very restrictive measures adopted by the country to contain the coronavirus outbreaks. In its most recent estimate, the USDA reduced the country's import number to 91 million tonnes – the lowest level since the height of the trade war and the 2018/19 African swine fever outbreak, which shrunk the country's hog herd.

Brazil soybean production (MMT)

image 35599
Sources: Conab and StoneX. *Estimate.
 

Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine adds to supply-side concerns indirectly, reinforcing an uneasy global balance sheet for vegetable oils. The country is the main producer and exporter of sunflower oil, the origin of about one-third of the world production of the input before the conflict.

Thus, soybean prices in Chicago have been maintained at more sustained levels, despite the high volatility that has been recorded, with wide oscillations from one day to the next, both up and down.

Given this scenario, the US 2022/23 crop is at the center of attention. It is worth remembering that soybean production is very concentrated in Brazil, Argentina and the US. With higher prices and crop failure in South America, there were already prospects of increasing US acreage. Amid a scenario of high fertilizers prices, and the characteristics of corn cultivation, which is more dependent on nutrient supplementation, soybean has advantages in the dispute for space in the country's plantations.

Even with the expectations of an increase in the US soybean acreage, the number of planting intentions released at the end of march and much awaited by the market was surprised, by being higher than expected, at 36.8 million hectares (91 million acres), even higher than the area planted with corn. It is a very rare fact such a demonstration by American producers, who are traditionally inclined to grow more cereals than soybeans, a situation recorded very rarely in USDA surveys. 
 

Soybean acreage – EUA (million hectares)
image 35263
Source: USDA. Design: StoneX. *Planting intentions.
However, it should be noted that the conflict between Ukraine and Russia can potentially change Ukrainian and Russian supply and export prospects and affect crop decisions around the world. In the case of the US, it should be noted that most of the planting intentions survey was most likely done before the conflict started.
This did not reflect the strong increase in corn prices, which rose proportionally more than soybean prices.
On the other hand, the situation of high fertilizer prices was aggravated since Russia, one of the world's main suppliers, is under economic sanctions, as is Belarus. This context continues to reinforce the attractiveness of soybeans due to the proportionally lower use of fertilizers.
Still, on fertilizers, there are concerns about availability for the next South American soybean crop, which starts in September in Brazil and for which marketing is considerably behind that recorded in the same period last year.
Thus, even though it is still early, the high prices of inputs or even the shortage of fertilizers tend to limit the expansion of the Brazilian soybean area, which has advanced year by year, since the country has the advantage of still having land for agricultural advance, without the need to occupy native vegetation. With higher costs, producers may choose to invest less in the crop, which has the potential to impact crop yields
negatively. 
Before Brazil and Argentina begin sowing the 2022/23 crop and the US harvest begins, the demand side will be central in the coming months. Despite the prospects of lower imports from China, Brazilian exports will be limited by this year's crop failure. This situation tends to benefit North American shipments, even when the country seasonally does not export much. This movement has already been observed, with an upward revision of USDA estimates of US exports in the 2021/22 cycle, a situation that strengthens the prospects of a more restricted global balance of soybeans, with the production of the new US crop becoming even more important for the balance between supply and demand.

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