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Financial Markets Morning Commentary

By: Tom Pawlicki, Senior Specialist, Market Intelligence

Economic

  • 10-year futures are -5/32. Yields are +2.20 bps at 4.102%. S&P futures are -20.00. Oil prices are higher again this morning after Iran said it plans to test missiles during the day today. Russia warned the US against striking Iran’s nuclear sites. Walmart is trading lower after earnings. Initial jobless claims were low while the Philadelphia Fed index beat expectations. Preliminary GDP, February PMI and new home sales data are due tomorrow. EIA oil inventories will be out today at 11:00 am CST. The Supreme Court's next opinion day is tomorrow, and a verdict on tariffs could be announced.
  • At least four central bank officials, including Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman, are scheduled to speak during the day.
  • (Reuters) Initial jobless claims were 206K vs. 225K expected and 229K previously. Continuing claims were 1.869 mln vs. 1.860 mln expected and 1.852 mln previously.
  • (Reuters) Philadelphia Fed index was 16.3 vs. 8.5 expected and 12.6 previously. Prices paid were 38.9 vs. 46.9 and employment was -1.3 vs. 9.7.
  • (Reuters) Kevin Hassett, a top economic adviser to President Donald Trump, on Wednesday said those behind a New York Federal Reserve research paper that argued the costs of tariffs are borne mostly by Americans should be punished for what he described as shoddy scholarship. "The paper is an embarrassment," Hassett said in a CNBC interview. "It's, I think, the worst paper I've ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve System" and "the people associated with this paper should presumably be disciplined" for writing it, he said.
  • (Reuters) Walmart's Q4 U.S. sales rise 4.6%, beating expectations, but expects consolidated net sales for the fiscal year 2027 to rise between 3.5% and 4.5%, compared with analysts' expectations of a roughly 5% increase. It forecast adjusted earnings per share of $2.75 to $2.85, below expectations of $2.96. Shares are -2.4% pre-market.
  • (Reuters) DoorDash climbed 9.9% after the food delivery company forecast first-quarter marketplace gross order value above Wall Street estimates.
  • (Reuters) Ebay rose 9.2% after the company forecast first-quarter revenue above analysts' estimates and announced the acquisition of fashion marketplace Depop from Etsy. Etsy shares jumped 19%.
  • (Reuters) Carvana dropped 14.5% after the online used-car retailer missed fourth-quarter profit estimates on higher costs.
  • (Reuters) The IMF maintained its economic growth forecast for China at 4.5% this year but warned of risks from weak domestic demand and a slowing global economy as it published its annual review of the Chinese economy for 2025 on Wednesday.
  • (Reuters) The German economy continues to recover, although expansion in the first quarter will be weak, with a pickup expected only from the spring, the Bundesbank said in a monthly economic report on Thursday.
  • (Reuters) British industrial orders have fallen heavily again and price pressures remain high, the Confederation of British Industry said on Thursday. The CBI's monthly order book balance stood at -28 in February compared with -30 in January. The index level remains well below its long-run average of -14.
  • (Reuters) Brazil's economic activity expanded 2.5% in 2025, central bank data showed on Thursday, easing from the previous year's pace but once again surpassing initial forecasts with the help of a booming farming sector.

Geopolitical

  • (Reuters) The United States is in the process of withdrawing all of its roughly 1,000 troops from Syria, the Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday, citing three U.S. officials.
  • (Reuters) Ukrainian drones hit a Russian oil depot in the western region of Pskov, causing explosions and a fire, an official from Ukraine's SBU security service said on Thursday.
  • (Reuters) Russian emergency services said on Thursday that a fire at Ilsky refinery in Russia's Krasnodar region that broke out on Tuesday after a drone attack had been extinguished.
  • Iran issued a notice to airmen (NOTAM) that it plans rocket launches in areas across the south of the country on Thursday from 0330 GMT to 1330 GMT, according to the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration website.
  • (Reuters) Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in an interview made public on Wednesday, said that any new U.S. strike on Iran would have serious consequences and called for restraint to find a solution to enable Iran to pursue a peaceful nuclear program.
  • (Reuters) Hamas is cementing its hold over Gaza by placing loyalists in key government roles, collecting taxes and paying salaries, according to an Israeli military assessment seen by Reuters and sources in the Palestinian enclave. Hamas’ continuing influence over key Gaza power structures has fueled widespread skepticism about the prospects of U.S. President Donald Trump’s peace plan, which requires the militant group to give up its weapons in exchange for an Israeli military withdrawal from the territory.

Energy

  • WTI is +$1.15/bbl at $66.20/bbl, while Brent is +$1.43/bbl at $71.78/bbl. Natural gas is +$0.056/MMBtu at $3.067/MMBtu.
  • (Reuters) API crude stocks fell by 609,000 barrels in the week ended February 13. Gasoline inventories fell by 312,000 barrels, while distillate inventories fell by 1.57 million barrels.
  • (Reuters) Russian state oil and gas revenue is seen almost halving in February to 410 billion roubles ($5.35 billion) from the same month in 2025 due to a stronger local currency and lower oil prices, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.
  • (Reuters) Occidental Petroleum beat Wall Street expectations for fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday, as strength in its midstream unit helped the U.S. shale producer offset weaker crude oil prices. Occidental posted an adjusted profit of 31 cents per share for the three months ended December 31, compared with expectations of 18 cents. Shares climbed 4.6%.

Metals

  • Gold (April) is +$4.30/oz, trading at $5,013.80/oz, while silver (March) is +$0.687/oz at $78.285/oz.
  • The dollar index is +0.204 points at 97.907.
  • (Reuters) Copper fell on Thursday, giving up some gains from the previous session as rising inventories and subdued demand due to the holiday in top metals consumer China weighed on prices.
  • (Reuters) Rio Tinto posted a flat full‑year profit on Thursday as stronger copper prices and higher output countered softer iron ore markets, with its flagship iron ore division still feeling the impact of mounting global supply. The world's largest iron ore producer, fresh from abandoning merger talks with Glencore, reported underlying earnings of $10.87 billion for the year ended December 31 in-line with last year's $10.87 billion and consensus of $11.03 billion.
  • Interest Rates

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


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