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first look for 2/4

By: PJ Quaid, Senior VP, Agricultural Commodities

CME, Bunge, Google and YUM are among the many reporting earnings today. 

 

USTR Jamieson Greer said the U.S. and India have reached an understanding that would eliminate India’s tariffs on industrial goods, cutting them to zero from an average of about 13.5%, while India will continue to maintain some protection around agricultural products. Greer emphasized that beyond tariffs, the two sides have made progress on reducing India’s technical non-tariff barriers to trade, including steps toward recognizing U.S. standards, which has been a longstanding friction point for U.S. exporters. The comments suggest meaningful market access gains for U.S. manufacturers, even as agriculture remains more sensitive and carved out for more gradual or limited liberalization.


 

U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum said the United States plans to announce as many as 11 new trade agreements on critical minerals this week, as part of a broader effort to secure supply chains and reduce dependence on China. The agreements are expected to focus on cooperation with allied and partner countries on sourcing, processing, and trading minerals such as lithium, nickel, cobalt, and rare earths that are essential for defense, energy, and advanced manufacturing. Burgum noted that interest in joining a U.S.-led “critical minerals club” is growing, with roughly 30 countries expressing interest so far, underscoring Washington’s push to reshape global minerals trade around trusted partners and improve long-term supply security.

 

China’s Vice Finance Minister said the economy is facing persistent headwinds amid elevated policy uncertainty, signaling continued pressure on growth momentum and confidence. The comment points to ongoing challenges from weak domestic demand, property-sector stress, and an uneven global backdrop, while also highlighting that unclear or shifting policy signals are weighing on business investment and market sentiment. Overall, it reinforces the view that Beijing still faces a difficult balancing act between supporting growth and managing financial and structural risks.

The U.S. House narrowly approved the USD 1.2 trillion spending package by a 217–214 vote, clearing the way to fund the government. President Trump subsequently signed the bill, ending the partial government shutdown as expected and removing a near-term source of political and economic uncertainty.

Outside MarketsPriceChange % Change  
Dow                      49,509             159.000.32  
Crude                         63.71                  0.500.79  
US Dollar                    97.4350                0.1340.14  
Gold                  5,058.85          112.0902.27  
US 2/10 Swap                    69.3480          (0.0350)-  
VIX                         17.88                (0.12)-  
      
CBOT Ags Volume & Open Interest    
 Previous VolumeChange in OIOptions Volume Change in Options OI  
Corn                     310,077                4,897                     26,303                                       5,630 
SRW                    128,194                5,484                     10,092                                       2,031 
HRW                      74,527                4,490                                -                                             536 
Soybeans                    240,663                2,670                     46,429                                       3,075 
Meal                    114,815                5,403                       9,638                                       4,233 
Oil                    291,569             11,290                     83,678                                    24,506 
Feeders                      20,130                    170                       3,940                                           811 
Live Cattle                      68,110                 (559)                     24,597                                       2,899 
Hogs                      72,159                7,659                     29,069                                       3,300 
      

 

Overnight options activity 

Corn

S 500 h 430/400 ps 5 3/4

B 1800 j 405 p 1 1/8

S 1800 h 410 p 1/2

 

Beans 

B 500 h 1080 c 5 ¾ to 5 7/8 

B 200 h 1070 c 9 1/8 

B 175 n 1080/1110 cs vs s n 1030 p 3/8 cr

B 150 k 1070/1110 cs vs s k 1050 p 2 ¾ cr

 

Soymeal

B 125 k 290 p 6.40

 

Open interest changes

Corn

May 455 call sale was new

 

Beans

July 1080 put buy was new...march 1080 call sale and march 1050/1020 put spread sale were closing...may 1050/1020 put spread buy was rolling a long

 

Bean oil

July 65 calls had 2750 trade on a block and 4832 trade through globex in 2 sided trade...oi was up 1302.....may 60/70 call spread buy, may 56/61 call spread buy, july 5250/4550 put spread sale, july 5950/7250 call spread sale, april 4750 put buy and march 55 call buys were new....may 55 call sale was closing 

 

Wheat

March 545 call sale and may 510 put sales were new

 

Lean hogs

April 90 put sales were closing 

 

Cvol

Ags 17.07% down .31%

Corn 15.06% down .30%

Beans 13.11% down .49%

Soymeal 17.75% down 1.22%

Bean oil 27.80% down .04%

Wheat 23.47% down .67%

Feeder cattle 17.93% down .01%

Live cattle 15.61% down .12%

Lean hogs 19.79% down .53%

Class 3 milk 21.70% up .66%

 

corn

image-20260204070852-1

beans

image-20260204070913-2

soymeal

image-20260204070933-3

bean oil

image-20260204070951-4

wheat

image-20260204071016-5

kc wheat

image-20260204071040-6

miax wheat

image-20260204071101-7

oats

image-20260204071122-8

rough rice

image-20260204071146-9

crush

image-20260204071215-10

feeder cattle 

image-20260204071246-11

live cattle 

image-20260204071310-12

lean hogs
image-20260204071334-13

 

sources
news bloomberg
options data globex
charts bloomberg

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