By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBL Variations | Daily: -0.13% | Weekly: +0.40% | Monthly: -3.47% | Annual: -8.69% | 12-month: -12.16%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.30% | Weekly: +0.28% | Monthly: -1.32% | Annual: +0.18% | 12-month: -0.80%
Investors will continue monitoring news on the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran in the Middle East amidst cautious optimism for a diplomatic resolution and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why it matters: Anticipation of a diplomatic solution to the conflict is likely to boost global risk appetite and positively impact riskier assets like the Brazilian real.
Strait of Hormuz: Despite efforts by the U.S. and Iran to resume diplomatic talks, the passage through the strait remains blocked by both nations.
U.S.: Historical and Expected Interest Rates – updated as of April 24, 2026
Global financial markets are expected to react to Wednesday’s (29th) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) interest rate decision, where rates are likely to be maintained between 3.50% and 3.75% annually.
Why it matters: The Fed’s decision to keep rates stable supports U.S. Treasury yields and facilitates foreign capital inflows into the U.S., strengthening the dollar globally.
Waiting game: Investors broadly agree that the FOMC will leave interest rates unchanged, awaiting greater clarity on geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their global economic impacts.
End of investigations: Last Friday (24th), the U.S. Department of Justice unexpectedly closed its investigation into Powell over alleged irregularities in Federal Reserve headquarters renovations.
Paving the way for Warsh: The closure of the investigation is seen as a White House move to facilitate Senate approval of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair.
What’s next? Powell’s term as a Federal Reserve Board member, however, lasts until January 2028.
Brazil: Historical and Expected Interest Rates – Focus Bulletin as of April 17, 2026
The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) is expected to cut Brazil’s benchmark interest rate (Selic) by 0.25 percentage points, from 14.75% to 14.50% annually.
Why it matters: Lowering Brazil’s benchmark interest rate tends to reduce the appeal of domestic bonds and discourage foreign investment, weakening the real.
Shifting expectations: The latest Focus Bulletin from the Central Bank showed that the median forecast for the Selic rate at the end of 2026 rose to 13.00% annually after three weeks at 12.50% annually.
IPCA-15: In this context, the release of April’s IPCA-15 inflation index next Tuesday (28th) gains importance.
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