By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
Commercial Dollar (US$/BRL) and Dollar Index (points)
Commercial Dollar Variations
Daily: -0.62% | Weekly: -1.30% | Monthly: -1.30% | Year-to-Date: -10.72% | 12-Month: -13.63%
Dollar Index Variations
Daily: -0.28% | Weekly: -0.17% | Monthly: -0.17% | Year-to-Date: -0.44% | 12-Month: -2.73%
Despite new reports of clashes between U.S. and Iranian forces in the Gulf this week, President Donald Trump stated on Thursday (May 7) that the ceasefire agreement remains in effect, although recent tensions have dampened expectations of swift diplomatic resolution.
Why This Matters: Markets seem to interpret that the ceasefire still holds and that there’s room for diplomatic progress, potentially leading to a gradual normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
Ships Crossing the Strait of Hormuz in 2026
Next week, investors will react to the release of U.S. consumer inflation data for April. Expectations point to another strong reading, reflecting the recent rise in energy prices and the resilience of the U.S. labor market.
Why This Matters: Higher inflation in the U.S. reduces the likelihood of short-term rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Fed’s Focus: In its latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decision, the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged but signaled heightened concern over inflation.
U.S. Inflation Indexes - 12-Month Accumulated (%)
Markets are also closely watching the meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, scheduled for May 14-15 in Beijing.
Why This Matters: The possibility of progress in U.S.-China relations may boost global risk appetite.
What to Watch: The meeting is likely to be monitored across three key areas. The first relates to the Middle East conflict, particularly the possibility of China exerting pressure on Iran.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS TABLE
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