By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL Variations | Daily: +0.38% | Weekly: +0.45% | Monthly: +1.89% | Annual: -7.83% | Over 12 months: -10.91%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.11% | Weekly: -0.41% | Monthly: +0.85% | Annual: +0.57% | Over 12 months: -0.46%
Variation in Crude Oil Production by Selected Countries between February and April
The foreign exchange market is expected to reflect greater investor expectations for a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran that could end the conflict between them and allow the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
Why This Matters: Clearer signs of progress in diplomatic negotiations should elevate investors' risk appetite, favoring the performance of riskier assets, such as the BRL.
Advances and Setbacks: On the afternoon of last Thursday (27), Axios reported that Washington and Tehran had reached a preliminary agreement to establish a Memorandum of Understanding, but the formalization of the agreement still required the approval of US President Donald Trump.
Unwavering Faith: Even though the situation remains fragile and uncertain, investors remain optimistic about the prospect of the conflict's end being near.
Agreement details: According to the reports, the alleged agreement would extend the ceasefire for 60 days for hostilities against both Iran and Lebanon.
Delay in Normalization: Even if the countries resolve the dispute quickly, it is necessary to consider that there will be a delay in normalizing flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
US: Historical and Expected Interest Rate Trajectory – Updated May 29, 2026
Investors are expected to react to the release of indicators for US economic activity and labor market, aiming to calibrate expectations for the country's interest rate trajectory.
Why This Matters: The data is expected to reinforce the perception of a more resilient and robust US economy, increasing expectations for higher interest rates for longer in the country.
Estimates: The median estimates for the Employment Situation Report point to a net creation of 96,000 jobs in the US in May, as well as stable unemployment rates at 4.3%.
Inflationary Challenges: The data is expected to suggest that the US economy remains strong, indicating no need for Federal Reserve rate cuts in the short term.
Inflation Measures for the United States (%)
No Room for Rate Cuts: Amid these inflationary challenges, investors have reversed their bets on the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move, shifting from anticipating a cut to expecting a hike.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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