By: Leonel Mattos, Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL Variations | Daily: -2.09% | Weekly: -1.72% | Monthly: +0.31% | Annual: -7.55% | In 12 months: -8.65%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.17% | Weekly: -0.27% | Monthly: +0.90% | Annual: +1.48% | In 12 months: +1.90%
US: History and Expectations for Interest Rates – Updated June 12, 2026
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged in its decision this Wednesday (17), in the range of 3.50% to 3.75% p.a.
Why This Tatters: The expectation of a more cautious Federal Reserve stance is likely to reinforce bets on higher rates for longer in the country.
Heated US Economy: Recent data for the United States points to a stronger-than-anticipated economy, with a reacceleration of the labor market over the last three months.
Change in Total Urban Employment in the United States – 3-Month Average (000 People)
Some Counterpoints for the Labor Market: Although net urban job creation in the US has intensified over the last three months, other indicators suggest that the labor market does not yet pose a more serious inflationary risk.
What to Expect From the FOMC: Normally, the Federal Reserve moves gradually when deciding to modify its monetary policy, meaning abrupt changes in stance are rare.
Subtle Adjustments are Uncommon: It is worth noting that when a Central Bank evaluates the need to change its monetary policy, whether with higher or lower rates, it is rare for it to decide that just one increase or decrease of 0.25 p.p. is sufficient to reposition its stance.
Brazil: History and Expectations for Interest Rates – Focus Bulletin Dated June 5, 2026
On Wednesday (17), the median of estimates points to the Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) of the Central Bank (BC) reducing the benchmark interest rate (Selic) from 14.50% to 14.25% per year.
Why This Matters: The reduction in the Selic rate tends to decrease the yield of domestic public bonds and harm the attraction of foreign capital, weakening the BRL.
Inflationary challenges: Although Copom is in a cycle of Selic cuts, inflationary challenges remain the primary concern, especially with the Middle East conflict extending into its fourth month, which may limit the cycle of cuts.
Rate Trajectory: According to the latest Focus bulletin, the median expectation is for Copom to continue cutting the Selic rate by 0.25 percentage points in the next four meetings while keeping it stable at the last meeting of the year, ending the year at 13.50% per year.
This week, investors are expected to continue following the back-and-forth news about diplomatic negotiations between the US and Iran.
Why This Matters: The possibility of ending the Gulf conflict reduces geopolitical risk perceptions among investors, favoring the performance of assets considered risky, like the BRL.
Positive signals from both sides: US President Donald Trump stated, "We have made a great deal to end the war with Iran," and that the Strait of Hormuz will officially reopen once the memorandum is signed.
Terms and Conditions: Despite positive signals regarding the proximity of a diplomatic resolution, the terms of the agreement remain unclear.
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