Market Intelligence Analyst • BRAZIL PRS
USDBRL and Dollar Index (points)
USDBRL Variations | Daily: -0.03% | Weekly: +0.63% | Monthly: +0.86% | Annual: -4.70% | Over 12 months: -2.25%
Dollar Index Variations | Daily: -0.11% | Weekly: +0.91% | Monthly: +0.40% | Annual: +3.65% | Over 12 months: +4.12%
Over the weekend, investors are expected to monitor the results of the first round of presidential elections, which should conclude by Sunday night (04).
Why this matters: A tight electoral race could reduce predictability regarding Brazil’s economic policies over the next four years, increasing the perception of risks for national assets, amplifying volatility, and weakening the BRL.
Voter intention poll: On Thursday (01), Datafolha released its voter intention survey, showing Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro in a technical tie both in the first and second rounds, strengthening perceptions of tight elections.
First-round victory? Despite voter intentions being concentrated between Lula and Flavio, a first-round outcome seems unlikely.
US: Historical and expected interest rates – updated on October 2, 2026
On the international stage, investors are expected to react to the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) last interest rate decision. The Fed raised US interest rates to the 3.75%-4.00% range and showed a firmer stance than expected in seeking price stability.
Why this matters: The document may reinforce the expectation of higher interest rates for longer in the United States, which tends to raise the yield on US Treasury bonds and attract foreign capital, strengthening the dollar globally.
Strong stance against inflation: Although the minutes are published just three weeks after the FOMC decision, the document gains greater importance due to Kevin Warsh’s enigmatic communication style as Fed Chairman since May.
Mixed data in the US: Last week, US economic indicators presented a mixed scenario, with some readings suggesting a robust economy and others a more stable outlook.
“Low fire, low hire”: Additionally, the September Employment Situation Report also presented a mixed picture for the country’s labor market.
Change in total US non-farm payroll – three-month average ('000 of people)
Slower rate hikes: In practice, these indicators do not fundamentally change the Federal Reserve’s risk balance, which includes a heated productive activity, a resilient and healthy labor market, and persistent inflation.
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI): Additionally, investors are expected to monitor the services sector PMI, released by the ISM Institute, which should provide clues about the level of activity in the main sector of the U.S. economy.
Brazil: Historical and expected interest rates – Focus bulletin as of September 25, 2026
On the domestic agenda, investors are expected to react to September’s reading of the Broad National Consumer Price Index (IPCA), which should influence investor expectations for the trajectory of Brazil’s basic interest rate (Selic).
Why is this important: A stronger IPCA reading is likely to heighten concerns about the domestic inflationary scenario, reducing the odds of further Selic rate cuts.
Open next steps: In its latest interest rate decision, Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) acknowledged a scenario of high uncertainty, reinforcing a cautious tone for future steps without committing to any specific actions.
ECONOMIC INDICATORS
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