By: StoneX Intelligence Brazil, StoneX Intelligence Brazil
The monetary policy decision by the Federal Reserve may be key to strengthening security in the American financial system and, simultaneously, signal the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, contributing to the strengthening of the dollar.
Monetary policy decisions by the central banks of England, Switzerland and Norway can raise the interest rate of these monetary authorities and contribute to the strengthening of their currencies to the detriment of the Brazilian real.
PMI forecasts for the United States may suggest that price acceleration is still high and persistent, raising expectations for interest rates in the country and strengthening the dollar.
The expectation for the proposed fiscal framework may reinforce the willingness of the economic team to rebalance Public Accounts and favor the BRL strengthening.
Copom's decision may offer clues about the future interest trajectory and reinforce a positive perception of Brazil's fiscal and inflationary trajectory, strengthening the Brazilian real.
The USDBRL ended this Friday's session higher, quoted at BRL 5.272, up 1.2% for the week and 0.9% for the month but down 0.2% for the year. The dollar index closed the session quoted at 103,5 points, a variation of -1.0% in the week, -1.2% in the month and +0.3% in the year. The week was marked by severe turbulence and volatility in international asset prices after the rapid bankruptcy of three US banks caused uncertainty about the global financial system's stability.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bullish
This week, the focus will be the monetary policy decision of the Fed's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) amid the turbulent and unstable environment caused by the bankruptcies of US banks. The past week has been one of extreme volatility, caution and uncertainty, with the bankruptcy of three US banks in quick succession – Silvergate, SVB and Signature Bank – and the injection of USD 30 billion by 11 other big banks to stave off a fourth, First Republic Bank, failure. Fears of a financial crisis on a global scale were heightened after Credit Suisse in Switzerland also faced difficulties and a bank run, which was stabilized after an emergency credit line of 50 billion Swiss francs. Last Friday (17), the scenario was of moderate caution, without knowing if the banking crisis was finally solved or if new institutions would present difficulties in the following days.
Attention now turns to how the FOMC will behave in its decision in this context. Last Thursday (16), the European Central Bank surprised everyone by deciding to raise its interest rate by even 0.50 p.p., privileging the search for price reestablishment to a more passive posture that would allow a thorough evaluation of the current situation, stating that there is no "trade-off" between financial stability and price stability. However, it seems undeniable that the balance of risks facing the Federal Reserve has shifted in the last week and that the rapid rise in interest rates has stressed the asset balance of several financial institutions, even if inflationary pressures remain high and persistent. Most bets on the interest futures market point to a 0.25 p.p. rise in the interest rate. However, some analysts point out that macroprudential measures alone may not be enough to ensure financial stability at this point and that a pause may be more appropriate so that the Fed can more adequately assess the strength of the banking system before deciding whether to continue with the pace of increases.
Finally, the FOMC will need to indicate its summary economic forecasts for some important macroeconomic variables after its interest rates decision, such as GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and the expected level for interest rates at the end of each year. This is an extraordinarily volatile and uncertain time to make economic forecasts, particularly on the level of interest rates. Still, the document may signal consensus (or lack thereof) among committee members.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bearish
This Wednesday, also, the Central Bank of Brazil's Monetary Policy Committee (Copom) will announce its decision on the basic interest rate (Selic). More than 92.5% of bets on the interest futures market on March 16 predicted the rate to remain at 13.75% p.a., with the remaining 7.5% betting on a reduction of 0.25 p.p. Between the decision of February 01 and this Wednesday, there was no major change in domestic market conditions and should raise a statement quite similar to the previous one, which considers, on the one hand, inflationary and fiscal risks and, on the other, a weakening of Brazilian economic activity. The statement may mention external banking events as an additional monitoring factor within the risk balance. Analysts will look for possible signals about the trajectory of interest rates by the committee as investors' price cuts from the end of the first half.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bearish
The optimism of national market operators is high with the presentation of the new fiscal framework proposal by the federal government. Last Friday (17), the President of Brazil, Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, met with the ministers of Finance, Fernando Haddad, of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services, vice president Geraldo Alckmin of the Civil House, Rui Costa, of Planning and Budget, Simone Tebet, and of Management and Innovation in Public Services, Esther Dweck, to discuss the new rules for the state tax regime. This is believed to be the last stage before publicly announcing the proposal's text and sending it to Congress. Although it is not officially admitted, analysts assess that the economic team wants to make the proposal public before the monetary policy decision of the Central Bank on Wednesday (22) to contribute to an eventual cut in the basic interest rate (Selic). In any case, investors have reduced their bets on the interest rate futures market (DI) based on a good reception of the new measure, believing that it will indicate a greater commitment to fiscal responsibility and, in this way, allow a reduction in inflationary forecasts.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bullish
In addition to the Federal Reserve, this week, the central banks of England, Switzerland and Norway will also have monetary policy decisions, and investors will be attentive to these authorities' reaction to the financial system's stability concerns. Each central bank, of course, faces a different balance of risk. In England, the BoE has already significantly raised interest rates, and the economy shows clear signs of slowing down. On the other hand, despite Switzerland being at the center of last week's worries about Credit Suisse's difficulties, the SNB is only at the beginning of its monetary tightening and is expected to readjust by 0.25 p.p. or 0.50 p.p.
Expected impact on USDBRL: bullish
Although the global context of instability is overshadowing economic data, this week will be released the previews of the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) of industry, services and composite, reported by S&P Global. The data should signal how economic activity is progressing in March, as the first indicators of the month came in lower than anticipated. Investors will pay particular attention to the "price paid" subgroup of indices, as price acceleration still poses a challenge. In addition, January durable goods orders will be published this week.
The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided. References to over-the-counter (“OTC”) products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets LLC (“SXM”), a member of the National Futures Association (“NFA”) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (“CFTC”) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ (“ECP”) and who have been accepted as customers of SXM. StoneX Financial Inc. (“SFI”) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Adviser. References to securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI . StoneX is a trading name of StoneX Financial Ltd (“SFL”). SFL is registered in England and Wales, Company No. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority [FRN 446717] to provide to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorised to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorised & regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority. StoneX Group Inc. acts as agent for SFL in New York with respect to its payments services business. StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. acts as agent for SFL in Singapore with respect to its payments services business. ‘StoneX’ is the trade name used by StoneX Group Inc. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries.
Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
The U.S. dollar is the single biggest swing factor for gold and silver, and its long-term trend is now being tested. A confirmed turn in the dollar could reset the outlook for precious metals, either capping them further or opening room toward new records.
Dollar to reflect Copom interest rate decision and US economic data
A crowded, one-sided yen carry trade has quietly become one of the biggest sources of leverage sitting underneath high-flying technology stocks. When that funding trade reverses, the selling can travel straight from the currency market into the Nasdaq 100.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
