Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Global Coffee Exports Are Sending a Mixed Signal — and the Market Is Listening
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Global coffee exports are no longer telling a single, simple story. Instead, they are offering the market a set of conflicting signals — tight nearby availability from Brazil, accelerating shipment volumes from Vietnam, and a global total that still lags last year. Together, the data suggest a market caught in transition, torn between the reality of today’s supply constraints and the expectation of much looser balances ahead.
This tension is already evident in price behavior, trade flows, and buying strategies. And as the industry looks toward the 2026/27 crop cycle, export data are becoming less a measure of what has moved — and more a reflection of how participants are positioning for what comes next.
Brazil’s export data continue to frustrate expectations of abundance. According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafé), the country shipped just over 3.0 million 60‑kg bags in March, down roughly 8–10% year‑on‑year, while first‑quarter exports fell more than 21% to 8.4 million bags
To focus solely on the volume decline, however, is to miss the point.
Brazil is not facing a supply shock; it is navigating an inter‑harvest pause in a market widely forecast to produce a record crop later this year. Producers, aware of both strong forward estimates and lingering price volatility, have chosen patience over urgency. Arabica availability has remained tight domestically, while canephora flows are only expected to improve as conilon harvesting begins in earnest in May.
The result is a paradox: Brazil is simultaneously the source of the world’s most bullish long‑term supply forecasts and the anchor of near‑term tightness. For the market, that contradiction has mattered more than any single volume statistic.
If Brazil is waiting, Vietnam is selling.
Vietnamese customs data show that March 2026 exports reached approximately 210,000 tonnes, bringing Q1 shipments to 577,300 tonnes, a 12.6% increase year‑on‑year in volume. Yet export revenues declined more than 6% as average prices fell sharply, underscoring the trade‑off between quantity and value.
This is not a collapse in demand, nor a loss of relevance. Rather, it is the clearest expression of Vietnam’s role as the pressure valve of the global coffee system. Elevated Vietnamese exports have provided roasters with blending flexibility at a time when Arabica availability — particularly from Brazil and Colombia — has been uneven. The cost of that flexibility has been price erosion.
Markets have responded accordingly. Robust supply from Vietnam has capped rallies in London robusta futures and encouraged substitutions further up the quality ladder — a trend that quietly reshapes consumption patterns even when prices are volatile.
At the aggregate level, the International Coffee Organization (ICO) confirms what traders have sensed for months: global coffee exports remain below last year’s pace.
According to the ICO’s latest market data shows that total exports of all coffee forms fell 5.7% year‑on‑year in February 2026 to 11.46 million bags and green coffee exports declined 9.0% to 9.79 million bags. Arabica’s share of global green exports slid to 60.9%, down from 65.1% a year earlier.
Regionally, the divergence is striking. South America posted a sharp contraction, Asia & Oceania softened, and Africa stood out as the sole growth region, buoyed by increased shipments from countries such as Côte d’Ivoire.
Taken together, the data underscore a crucial point: the global export slowdown is not uniform, nor accidental. It reflects a transition phase in which producers are timing sales, buyers are managing risk, and logistics — from ports to geopolitics — still matter.
What the current export picture reveals is a market caught between delay and acceleration. Brazil is holding back; Vietnam is pushing out. Globally, shipments are trailing, even as production forecasts point higher.
This combination helps explain the uneasy trade in coffee futures: rallies sold, dips reluctantly bought, volatility sustained by uncertainty rather than scarcity alone.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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