Daily Coffee Report 6/11/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Global Coffee Giants in 2026: How JDE Peet’s, Nestlé, and Starbucks Are Navigating a Volatile Market
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee sector is entering 2026 with unmistakable momentum—but also unmistakable pressure. Three of the world’s most influential coffee powerhouses—JDE Peet’s, Nestlé, and Starbucks—have released fresh financial results that reveal not only how they weathered the inflationary turbulence of 2025, but how they intend to shape the next phase of the global coffee landscape. Their financial disclosures paint a vivid story of rising costs, strategic pivots, and evolving consumer behavior across markets from North America to China.
JDE Peet’s: Strong Sales and Strategic Transformation
JDE Peet’s enters 2026 with a confident stride. The company reported €9.921 billion in full‑year 2025 sales, a 12.3% year‑over‑year increase—a remarkable growth rate given the severe inflationary pressure on green coffee and tea inputs. Organic sales rose an even more impressive 15.3%, driven largely by 19.5% price increases, counterbalanced by a modest decline in volume/mix.
Despite spending 27% more on raw materials amid unprecedented global commodity spikes, JDE Peet’s still expanded profitability: underlying profit climbed to €1.196 billion, supported by a significant non‑cash derivatives gain. Even after stripping out that one‑time benefit, the company would have delivered €895 million in underlying profit, underscoring real operational strength.
But the most transformative development is strategic: its acquisition by Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) is on track to close in early Q2 2026, positioning JDE Peet’s for structural realignment within a dual‑company model that KDP will spin off into “Beverage Co.” and “Global Coffee Co.” This transition reinforces JDE Peet’s ambition to wield even greater influence as a pure‑play global coffee leader.
Nestlé: Coffee as the Core Engine of a Giant
Among the companies evaluated, Nestlé’s coffee operations demonstrated some of the most robust category‑level performance—even as the broader corporation faced mixed financial results.
Nestlé reported CHF 89.49 billion in 2025 sales, a 2% decline attributed largely to currency effects, yet its organic growth reached 3.5%, with real internal growth (RIG) of 0.8%. Critically, Nestlé generated CHF 9.2 billion in free cash flow, fueling accelerated investment behind its highest‑potential categories.
And the standout performer? Coffee.
Nestlé’s coffee segment—including Nescafé, Nespresso, and its licensed Starbucks‑branded retail products—delivered 7.3% organic growth, supported by strategic pricing actions necessary to offset surging coffee and cocoa costs. At the same time, the company demonstrated deft ability to maintain volume despite raising prices—proof of both brand strength and ongoing consumer demand.
Nespresso, bolstered by its appeal to younger urban buyers, posted 6% organic growth, with double‑digit gains in North America. The company is also doubling down on the rapidly expanding cold coffee segment, rolling out innovations like Nescafé Espresso Concentrate and Iced Blend, along with new production capacity in Malaysia to meet demand.
Heading into 2026, Nestlé expects 3–4% organic growth, promising heightened focus on coffee as part of its restructuring to emphasize four core business pillars, with coffee as one of the central engines.
Starbucks: A Return to Transaction Growth and Operational Reshaping
Starbucks’ fiscal Q1 2026 results (covering the quarter ending December 28, 2025) show a company in the midst of an aggressive operational comeback.
The most encouraging indicator: global comparable store sales rose 4%, driven by a 3% increase in transactions—the kind of volume‑led recovery Starbucks had been working toward for more than eight quarters. In the U.S., the company also posted a 4% comp increase, mirroring global trends.
International markets performed even better—5% growth overall, including 7% growth in China, driven largely by increased customer traffic. Starbucks also continued expanding aggressively, adding 128 net new stores and bringing its global footprint to 41,118 locations, with the U.S. and China comprising 61% of all stores.
Financially, Starbucks delivered $9.9 billion in quarterly net revenue (up 6%), though profitability was challenged. GAAP EPS fell to $0.26 (–62% YoY) as operating margins contracted under pressure from labor investments, inflation, and higher coffee prices and tariffs.
Still, management maintains that the “Back to Starbucks” strategy is working ahead of schedule, pointing to the turnaround in transaction growth as early proof.
All three companies faced the same macroeconomic headwinds—severe input cost inflation, shifting consumer habits, and global supply chain constraints. Yet their trajectories diverge meaningfully.
JDE Peet’s shows the strongest top‑line acceleration, largely due to pricing strength, and stands on the brink of a transformative acquisition that could reshape the global coffee competitive landscape.
Nestlé remains the most diversified and cash‑generative, with coffee demonstrating exceptional resilience and innovation leadership. Its deep investment in cold coffee trends positions it well with younger consumers worldwide.
Starbucks, while facing margin pressure, is showing the clearest signs of traffic‑driven recovery—a critical leading indicator for retail‑heavy brands. Its store expansion and operational reset signal confidence that demand is returning.
As 2026 unfolds, the global coffee industry appears poised for renewed growth—even as cost pressures persist. What is clear from these financial results is that the companies winning now are those that invested in pricing strategies, brand strength, innovation, and structural transformation rather than retreating in the face of volatility.
And if early 2026 is any indication, the race for global coffee leadership is far from settled.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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