How Global Shipping Line Disruptions Are Reshaping the Coffee Trade in 2025–2026

CoffeeNetwork (New York) - The global coffee trade is entering 2026 under the shadow of one of the most turbulent periods the maritime industry has experienced in decades. What began as a series of operational shifts among major carriers has evolved into a complex matrix of geopolitical, structural, and logistical disruptions—each with far‑reaching implications for the supply chains that move coffee from producing origins to consuming markets. Press releases and alliance updates issued by the world’s largest carriers, including Maersk, MSC, Hapag‑Lloyd, and members of the Ocean Alliance, reveal a global shipping system in transition, one that coffee traders can no longer take for granted.

The End of 2M and the Beginning of a New Era

For nearly a decade, the 2M Alliance between Maersk and MSC served as one of the most influential stabilizing forces in global container shipping. That era came to an end in January 2025, when the vessel-sharing partnership officially dissolved. The dissolution triggered a widespread reconfiguration of global networks as both carriers sought to redesign their service structures independently. Reports analyzing alliance restructuring confirm that the breakup allowed Maersk and MSC to pursue divergent strategies—Maersk leaning toward a fully integrated logistics model, MSC expanding its fleet and independent global footprint.

This recalibration has not been seamless. Service strings, port rotations, and vessel deployment patterns have all been in flux, creating greater unpredictability for exporters. For coffee-growing nations that rely on predictable routes—especially Brazil, Vietnam, Colombia, and Ethiopia—these changes have increased the risk of missed connections, vessel delays, and sudden service withdrawals. The global coffee trade, which depends heavily on consistent week‑to‑week sailing schedules, has felt the effects through delayed arrivals and lengthened supply chain cycles.

Gemini Cooperation: Promise and Uncertainty

Maersk’s most significant strategic move after leaving 2M was its new operational collaboration with Hapag‑Lloyd—the Gemini Cooperation, launched on February 1, 2025. Described by both companies as a long‑term, reliability‑focused partnership, Gemini replaces Maersk’s previous east–west service structure with a newly engineered joint network. According to press updates from Hapag‑Lloyd, the network was designed with two parallel operational models: one based on the Suez Canal route and one routed around the Cape of Good Hope. The latter exists as a contingency plan due to ongoing security risks in the Red Sea region.

Although Gemini aspires to achieve over 90% schedule reliability, achieving this in practice has proven challenging in its early months. Network phase‑ins typically destabilize timetables as vessels shift between new rotations and ports adapt to altered berthing windows. Carriers themselves have cautioned shippers to expect quiet but meaningful changes in relay points, port pairings, and buffer times across multiple service lanes. These shifts introduce new layers of complexity for coffee exporters, particularly those in inland origins like Ethiopia or remote producing regions of Indonesia, which depend on precise feeder connections. Even minor timing disruptions at a transshipment port can result in delays of several days or more for containerized coffee shipments.

The Red Sea Crisis and Rerouting Around Africa

While organizational restructuring has created its own set of logistical tremors, the industry’s most visible disruption continues to stem from persistent attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea. According to freight sector analysis published in Forbes, attacks by Yemen‑based Houthi rebels continued throughout 2025, forcing dozens of shipping lines—including those carrying significant volumes of coffee—to bypass the Suez Canal entirely. Many carriers rerouted vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10 to 18 days to traditional Asia–Europe transit times.

Coffee origins most affected by this detour include East Africa—Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania—where exporters shipping to Europe have faced significant delays. Asian coffee exporters, particularly Vietnam and Indonesia, also suffer when Europe‑bound vessels divert around the Cape. These disruptions have raised freight rates, strained container availability, and reduced predictability in delivery schedules. The fact that Maersk and Hapag‑Lloyd built an entire alternative “Cape network” into their Gemini planning shows that carriers expect Red Sea instability to persist.

Geopolitical Tension and Its Ripple Effect on Maritime Routes

Beyond the Red Sea, global geopolitics continue to loom over maritime trade. Analysts warn that heightened tensions between the United States and Iran pose a significant risk to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for global oil shipments. Any disruption there would have immediate consequences on bunker fuel prices, translating into higher surcharges and shipping costs for coffee traders. The war in Ukraine similarly complicates vessel movements in the Black Sea and affects logistical networks for commodities that compete with coffee for container space.

These risks contribute to a general atmosphere of volatility, where carriers must regularly adjust routing assumptions and where cost structures remain vulnerable to sudden geopolitical shifts. For global coffee buyers, this means a persistent layer of uncertainty in freight pricing and arrival timetables.

Tariffs, U.S. Trade Policy, and Higher Shipping Costs

The trade environment has further complicated container logistics. Beginning in October 2025, new U.S. penalties on Chinese‑made vessels calling at American ports created an additional cost burden for carriers. Forbes reporting indicates that these penalties are expected to be passed directly to shippers, increasing the landed cost of imported goods—including green coffee entering the U.S. from Brazil, Vietnam, and Colombia. The end of the “de minimis” exemption for low‑cost imports has also increased administrative and logistical burdens.

With no clarity about whether these tariffs will remain in place or be rolled back in 2026, importers face the prospect of yet another variable influencing freight costs and contract negotiations.

Network Rewiring and Inland Disruptions

The combination of alliance restructuring, security disruptions, and geopolitical risk has resulted in what industry observers describe as a complete “re‑plumbing” of global shipping networks. Service maps are being redrawn, vessel deployments reassigned, and port hubs reorganized. Immediate impacts include container shortages in key coffee origins—especially during peak export months—as well as congestion at major transshipment hubs. Analysts confirm that the newly formed alliances—Gemini, Premier Alliance, and the extended Ocean Alliance—are each adjusting their operational blueprints, with implications for service frequency and transit reliability.

Maersk’s own January 2026 announcements reveal that the company reinstated its MECL service on a trans‑Suez routing, suggesting that the service had previously been altered due to Red Sea instability. Such reversions highlight how fluid—and fragile—these corridor decisions remain.

For coffee supply chains, the consequences are tangible: longer dwell times at ports, unpredictability in the arrival of empty containers needed for stuffing, and the increased likelihood of missed feeder connections for exporters located far from export terminals.

A New Normal That Coffee Traders Must Navigate

The disruptions unfolding across the global shipping industry are not temporary shocks; they represent an evolving and prolonged reconfiguration of how carriers operate. The combination of alliance restructuring, Red Sea instability, geopolitical risk, and shifting U.S. trade policy has created a landscape in which reliability cannot be assumed. For the coffee sector, this translates into longer lead times, greater cost volatility, and tighter margins for exporters and importers alike.

As carriers continue to reroute vessels, adjust networks, and navigate political instability, the global coffee trade must adapt to a new normal defined by uncertainty—and prepare for a future in which maritime disruptions are not exceptions but ongoing operational realities.

Alexis Rubinstein