By: Editorial Team, StoneX Media
Fewer than a handful of ships are currently heading into the Persian Gulf to pick up new cargo, even as several dozen per day transit outward through the Strait of Hormuz. That gap between vessels leaving and vessels returning is a precise measure of how far economic normalization still has to travel. Iran purchased 18 million metric tons of corn and soybeans in calendar year 2025, almost entirely from Brazil, and wheat from a variety of sources, and has made no meaningful purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities since 2018. The answer depends on claims from Washington and Tehran that neither markets nor observers can yet verify.
Arlan Suderman is Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX Group's FCM Division, where he covers global commodity markets spanning agriculture, energy and metals. His work tracks the intersection of macroeconomic policy and physical commodity flows across the supply chains that connect U.S. grain production to international demand, including the geopolitical corridors that have come under direct pressure in the current conflict.
The resumption of outbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been presented as evidence that the worst of the supply disruption is behind markets. Suderman is more measured. "It looks like several dozen ships per day are now passing through the Strait. That's a tremendous improvement, but it's still well below the eighty to one hundred and thirty ships per day that passed through the Strait prewar." The more revealing indicator, in his view, is the count of vessels heading back into the Persian Gulf to collect new cargo loads, which currently numbers only a handful. Restoring supply means restoring that two-way flow, not simply releasing the inventory of ships that were trapped during the conflict. Until inbound traffic accelerates, the surge of product reaching world markets reflects accumulated stockpiles rather than a functioning supply chain, a distinction with direct implications for how long any price relief holds.
The Trump administration has stated that frozen Iranian assets are being released toward the purchase of U.S. agricultural commodities for the Iranian people, a claim Suderman treats as credible in tone but unverifiable in fact. "The consistency and persistence of the message does give it some credibility," he notes, adding that the clearest confirmation signal would be ships loading U.S. grain bound for Iranian ports, which has not yet materialized. China's pledge to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three marketing years and an additional $17 billion in other agricultural commodities represents a potentially larger demand shift, yet market positioning reflects similar doubt. "The market is assuming no sales to Iran and somewhat limited sales to China, below what has been promised anyway," Suderman observes. The notable exception is China's current marketing year performance, where it committed to 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and has taken delivery on virtually all of them, though the market cannot determine for several months if that represents a new compliance baseline or a one-time exception.
Access live prices, supply and demand data, and actionable market commentary focused on the Agriculture sector. Sign up for StoneX Market Intelligence today and see how our Agriculture insights can elevate your strategy.
Sign up for a Market Intelligence trial today
--- Written by Gus Farrow, Senior Manager, StoneX Media
--- Expert: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist, StoneX Group FCM Division
The subsidiaries of StoneX Group Inc. provide financial products and services, including, but not limited to, physical commodities, securities, clearing, global payments, risk management, asset management, foreign exchange, and exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives. These financial products and services are offered in accordance with the applicable laws in the jurisdictions in which they are provided and are subject to specific terms, conditions, and restrictions contained in the terms of business applicable to each such offering. Not all products and services are available in all countries. The products and services offered by the StoneX Group of companies involve risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Full Disclaimer. This content is not intended for residents of any particular country, and the information herein is not advice nor a recommendation to trade nor does it constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial product or service, by any person or entity in any jurisdiction or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to local law or regulation. Please refer to the Regulatory Disclosure section for entity-specific disclosures. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc. The information herein is provided for informational purposes only. This information is provided on an ‘as-is’ basis and may contain statements and opinions of the StoneX Group of companies as well as excerpts and/or information from public sources and third parties and no warranty, whether express or implied, is given as to its completeness or accuracy. Each company within the StoneX Group of companies (on its own behalf and on behalf of its directors, employees and agents) disclaims any and all liability as well as any third-party claim that may arise from the accuracy and/or completeness of the information detailed herein, as well as the use of or reliance on this information by the recipient, any member of its group or any third party.
© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. all rights reserved.
Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.
With Iranian asset releases unverified and China's soybean purchase commitments untested, grain markets are trading on assumptions rather than confirmed flows. Arlan Suderman breaks down why the verification gap is the most consequential variable facing U.S. commodity prices right now.
A European heatwave is creating very different outcomes across grain markets. While maize faces heightened production risks, some traders believe wheat quality could improve, potentially creating export opportunities that few anticipated at the start of the season.
June 24 – Stock futures bounced modestly overnight, following sharp losses in the tech sector on Tuesday. Investors are monitoring developments out of the Middle East while positioning for tomorrow’s pile of economic data, including the latest PCE inflation numbers. The VIX is trading near 19 this morning, while the dollar index trades at fresh 13-month highs near 101.8. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.43%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.16% as the yield curve continues to flatten. WTI crude oil prices are trading at fresh 16-week lows near $70 per barrel, while Brent trades near $74 per barrel. The grain and oilseed markets were modestly higher as a rule overnight.
Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.
Reach
With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bilateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.
Transparency
As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve, our financials and track record are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.
Expertise
From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform to “boots-on-the-ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.
