Fewer than a handful of ships are currently heading into the Persian Gulf to pick up new cargo, even as several dozen per day transit outward through the Strait of Hormuz. That gap between vessels leaving and vessels returning is a precise measure of how far economic normalization still has to travel. Iran purchased 18 million metric tons of corn and soybeans in calendar year 2025, almost entirely from Brazil, and wheat from a variety of sources, and has made no meaningful purchases of U.S. agricultural commodities since 2018. The answer depends on claims from Washington and Tehran that neither markets nor observers can yet verify.
Arlan Suderman is Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX Group's FCM Division, where he covers global commodity markets spanning agriculture, energy and metals. His work tracks the intersection of macroeconomic policy and physical commodity flows across the supply chains that connect U.S. grain production to international demand, including the geopolitical corridors that have come under direct pressure in the current conflict.
Key Themes from the Discussion
Strait of Hormuz inbound vessel traffic remains well below the 80 to 130 ships per day seen before the conflict, signaling that supply normalization is incomplete.
The Trump administration's claim that Iranian frozen assets are being released to purchase U.S. agricultural commodities remains unconfirmed by any verifiable shipment activity.
China's promise to buy 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three marketing years is unpriced by the market, which is currently assuming limited purchases below what has been pledged.
Strait of Hormuz Recovery Masks a Deeper Supply Gap
The resumption of outbound traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been presented as evidence that the worst of the supply disruption is behind markets. Suderman is more measured. "It looks like several dozen ships per day are now passing through the Strait. That's a tremendous improvement, but it's still well below the eighty to one hundred and thirty ships per day that passed through the Strait prewar." The more revealing indicator, in his view, is the count of vessels heading back into the Persian Gulf to collect new cargo loads, which currently numbers only a handful. Restoring supply means restoring that two-way flow, not simply releasing the inventory of ships that were trapped during the conflict. Until inbound traffic accelerates, the surge of product reaching world markets reflects accumulated stockpiles rather than a functioning supply chain, a distinction with direct implications for how long any price relief holds.
Iran and China Demand Claims Leave Grain Markets in Limbo
The Trump administration has stated that frozen Iranian assets are being released toward the purchase of U.S. agricultural commodities for the Iranian people, a claim Suderman treats as credible in tone but unverifiable in fact. "The consistency and persistence of the message does give it some credibility," he notes, adding that the clearest confirmation signal would be ships loading U.S. grain bound for Iranian ports, which has not yet materialized. China's pledge to purchase 25 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans annually for three marketing years and an additional $17 billion in other agricultural commodities represents a potentially larger demand shift, yet market positioning reflects similar doubt. "The market is assuming no sales to Iran and somewhat limited sales to China, below what has been promised anyway," Suderman observes. The notable exception is China's current marketing year performance, where it committed to 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans and has taken delivery on virtually all of them, though the market cannot determine for several months if that represents a new compliance baseline or a one-time exception.
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