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January '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Urea

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

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January '24 UREA
 
Josh Linville
Fertilizer - Vice President
StoneX Financial Inc. - FCM Division
josh.linville@stonex.com
Major Global Urea Export Location Price Graphs

The intention of the below graphs are not to use to say "my price should be X based on this graph".  These prices are derived from an FOB price point average.  The intent is to show major global price movement trends.  Your values will likely have significant basis difference (similar to your local grain price being different than the traded market price).

This graph is labeled as MT in USD currency.

image 86679

What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
GLOBAL
A lot of my outlook doesn't depend solely on the India urea purchase tender announcement from just before Christmas but on the world's demand reaction to it.  What I mean is if it is India alone, I struggle to see prices firm but if other regions step forward, now we have bullishness.  Also, do not underestimate shipping lanes in the Red Sea/Persian Gulf/etc.  I cannot understate how nervous that makes me.
Today, it doesn't seem as though there is really any reason for prices to rally on fundamentals but I see a lot more upside potential in the market than downside.  If forced to pick, I'll take the bullish perspective moving forward.
Again, if global buyers stay back and force manufacturers to ship product without being "called" on, values will struggle to find footing.  However, today's values are very attractive and there is a lot of political tension out there.
NORTH AMERICA
October was a surprise for U.S. imports, hitting around 500,000 tons which matched the July/August/September total.  Some things have happened/been discussed that have me believing that imports will be heavier than expected November/December and possibly into January, reducing our overall need before spring.  However, global political tension and solid grain/urea ratios could have demand coming sooner than later.
All to say that I am leaning bullish moving forward.  It is not out of line to see prices dip on slow demand but overall, feels like prices will be higher in the spring than they are right now.
Like the world, do not sleep on logistics.  The Lower Mississippi River is doing well...but isn't far removed from entering low water flows again.  Trucks and rail continue to struggle with truck and rail issues.  Last, lot of retailers took a beating in recent months/years and suddenly have T-rex arms in terms of position taking.  I would hate to take the chance on "just in time inventories".
CME Futures Settlement Indications

While the fertilizer futures market is far from as liquid as its grain counterparts, it is still active and gives us an insight into what the market is thinking.

Please note that the values below can and will change daily.  This is merely a look at where they are as of writing:

 NOLA UreaArab Gulf UreaEgypt Urea
January$315$317.50$330.00
February$318$315.00-
March$318.00--
April$317.50--
May$317.50--
June$320.00--
July$320.00--
August$320.00--
September$312.50--

 

General Global Urea Information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
Chinese export restrictions tighten the global market
Under normal circumstances, Chinese urea exports account for around 10% of the global annual export volume.  So it makes sense that if they start putting restrictions on what can and cannot be exported, it should be taken into account.
That brings us to the present.
The Chinese government has stated that they intend to reduce the number of urea tons exported from January 2024 thru March 2025 to approximately 4MMT.  To put that into perspective, China typically exports around 5 - 5.5MMT per calendar year.  Breaking those out, that reduces the average monthly rate by about 40%.  That ain't nothin!
Now, the question is will that remain?  If we were to suddenly see global prices spike and inventories get tighter, it is not out of question that the government could restrict that number further.  On the flip side, if production rates remain high and domestic Chinese storage fills quickly, we could see them give a short term boost to the number.  Either way would cause a market move to be greater (upside and down).
Today, we have to take their word on the announcement but we always know that we have to treat them from a reactionary standpoint as it is VERY difficult to get accurate information from them.
Drought in Brazil puts urea demand in question
One of the standout stories to end the year has been the lack of rain in Brazil.  It is bad enough that our team in country have declined their corn acreage expectations by nearly three quarters of a millions acres.
For fertilizer, the immediate question is what it switches to.
Many are indicating that they will convert these acres from corn and take a chance on soybeans.  For urea, that is a problem.  If you are new to the industry, soybeans do not need a lot of nitrogen so cutting this many acres of corn will have a decent effect on their overall nitrogen demand.  Like many things in Brazil, things can change quickly.  It feels too early to completely write off their demand...but there are a LOT of indications we can start taking those steps.
For a global urea market that was already struggling with demand, losing Brazil's expected demand certainly doesn't help build a bullish outlook
India surprises the market with a Christmas purchase tender announcement
This announcement has had a fun little journey.  When India wrapped up their last purchase tender a couple months back, many in the industry (myself included) assumed we would see them again 2nd half December.  Then, as the days and weeks rolled by, we started to back up into 1st half/mid-January.  Their new urea production was going very well.  Also had global values under pressure so the longer they waited, the lower prices might go.  In fact, just before Christmas break, I was all but convinced it would be a 2024 issue.
That would not be the case.  At first, I was frustrated for them, thinking it was a "stupid" move to come in so early.  By the end of the day, I thought it might have been the smartest move they could have made!
Normally, when India announces a purchase tender, the market gets excited and prices rise.  It is not uncommon to see values up $20 - $40 shortly after the announcement.  That is frustrating for them.  What better way to combat it than to do it when a lot of the industry is on holiday.  With so many less participants in the office, the excitement level doesn't build.  Also, values are down fairly well from the last tender, shipping lanes are starting to be questioned (more below) and China is threatening to cut exports.  
Like I said, by the end of the day, I thought it was a brilliant move and I had to eat my words!!!
So, offers are due no later than January 4th.  This also has a very wide shipment window, ending on February 29th (it will never not feel weird to write Feb 29).  In their last tender, there were 2MMT offered that did not get accepted and there have been millions of tons produced since then.  It would not be shocking to see a huge amount of tons offered.
Still, like any tender, we need to see what happens.  More to come...
Middle East tensions/attacks jeopardizing shipping lanes
Well, this is a story that we have discussed in the past but really hoped it wouldn't become true.
Unfortunately, we need to talk about what is happening in the news and what it means for the urea marketplace.
The story leading the news cycle today is Houthi and Iranian attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and off the coast of India.  As we discussed last month, this is a worst case scenario for urea.  There do not seem to be any effect on North African shipping lanes...but the worry is that these attacks will lead to a broader war that could cause their input costs to rise as a result.  Then there is the Middle East and its reliance on the Red Sea and Persian Gulf.  The graph below shows just how many tons originate from this area.  To say it is substantial would be an understatement.
The good news is that reactions to these attacks have been limited.  We have not seen anyone "fly off the handle"...yet.  Right around Christmas, some U.S. soldiers were injured (one or two critically) by an attack.  That could be the straw that breaks the camel's back.  It's one thing to send some drones/missiles toward a well equipped Aegis class ship.  Attacking actual troops...that is hard to ignore.
Please keep an eye on the region.  Tensions are very high and we are not far removed from a broader situation.  If that happens, the media will spend a lot of time talking about oil shipments being hampered...but urea utilizes the same lanes and that will hurt.
image 86815
U.S. October imports bigger than expected...continue November/December?
The start of the 2024 fertilizer year did not start off hot for U.S. imports.  Needing an earlier forecasted 5.4M tons imported (since reduced to 5.2M tons), it was important to get an early jump.  Especially with river issues as they have been.  Unfortunately, July/August/September only saw near 500K tons imported.  Nothing to get overly scared of...but it was a slow start.
Fortunately, October turned the tide with nearly 500K tons arriving.  This gave a decent boost as we are now around 20% of the way to our annual need.
We do expect to see healthy imports for November and December as well.  Global demand has been very quiet following the last India tender and manufacturers/traders have sometimes struggled with where to go with product.  Europe was ahead of the game on their purchases this summer.  Brazil demand is questionable with their drought.  North America jumps to the top of the list as a good place to send product...and hope for the best.
It appears we are well on track to get what is needed for spring.  It does not look like we are doing like a couple years ago and bringing everything in far too early.  It does not look like we are doing like last year and waiting until the last possible second.
Nice and smooth...which is exactly what our logistics need.
image 86816
Koch set to purchase OCI's Weaver, IA nitrogen production facility
One of the biggest surprises as the market looked to close out 2023 was the reported sale of OCI's nitrogen production facility based in Weaver, IA.  It was announced that Koch stepped forward as the buyer, agreeing to pay $3.6B for the facility.
A nitrogen market that already struggles with what it sees as a monopoly was not amused.
Some are hopeful that regulatory bodies will strike the deal.  Earlier this year, CF Industries was heard purchasing a nitrogen production facility in Waggaman, LA.  That was already tough for folks.  Now Koch purchasing Weaver means even more consolidation in a market with few players.
It was enough that I asked Mike internally to pull the numbers and see where the market would be if the sale goes thru.  For urea, the big 3 will own 84.3% of the urea production capacity for the U.S.  A monopoly is when a single company/entity controls the market.  An oligopoly is when a few control the market.  There are a lot of folks saying that now.
Again, the chance that the purchase is struck down is very low but with recent attention by U.S. Senator's, that chance isn't zero.  This could be their way to stand up and show how they are working for the farmer.  Doubt it, but one never knows!
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Current grain/urea ratio values very attractive
There really isn't much to discuss other than to point your attention to the ratio graphs below.  These are solid values for those willing to market ahead.
This is one of those times I am going to be a little more bold.  It is worth your consideration for at least a layer.  Right now (at least from my Chicago corn/NOLA urea perspective), these values are significantly better than they have been the last couple years.
This is a conversation that needs to be had with your retailer.  Inland numbers are going to look different because of different basis but I would dare say the value is still there.  
HAVE THAT CONVERSATIONS.
Frankly, if this ends up being one of the worst values (input AND output), I'll happily accept that butt chewing because that means you just had a stellar year.
Where are current values in relation to the past

NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana 

Number 3 global importer in 2022

image 83787

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - +5% or approximately $15 higher

Vs 90 days ago - -28% or approximately $118 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +5% or approximately $15 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -33% or approximately $150 lower

image 86680

U.S. Midwest Average

Vs 30 days ago - -16% or approximately $69 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -26% or approximately $124 lower

Vs 6 months ago - -24% or approximately $109 lower

Vs 1 year ago - -34% or approximately $185 lower

 

U.S. Southern Plains Average

Vs 30 days ago - -1% or approximately $5 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -27% or approximately $130 lower

Vs 6 months ago - -26% or approximately $123 lower

Vs 1 year ago - -33% or approximately $178 lower

 

U.S. Northern Plains Average

Vs 30 days ago - -10% or approximately $44 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -18% or approximately $86 lower

Vs 6 months ago - -15% or approximately $70 lower

Vs 1 year ago - -30% or approximately $163 lower

 

Middle East

Number 1 exporter (as a region, not as individual nations)

image 83722

image 83723

image 83724

image 83725

Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $11 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -16% or approximately $63 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +22% or approximately $57 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -31% or approximately $142 lower

image 86682

Egypt

Number 4 global exporter in 2022

image 83726

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -4% or approximately $16 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -20% or approximately $87 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +4% or approximately $15 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -37% or approximately $202 lower

image 86683

 

Black Sea

Number 1 global exporter in 2022

image 83727

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -7% or approximately $23 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -23% or approximately $83 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +5% or approximately $13 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -35% or approximately $153 lower

image 86684

China

Number 9 global exporter in 2022

image 83729

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - -3% or approximately $10 lower

Vs 90 days ago - -6% or approximately $25 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +19% or approximately $59 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -21% or approximately $98 lower

image 86685

Brazil

Number 2 global importer in 2022

image 83788

Price comparisons

Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month

Vs 90 days ago - -22% or approximately $90 lower

Vs 6 months ago - +13% or approximately $37 higher

Vs 1 year ago - -35% or approximately $170 lower

 

image 86686
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Middle East tension - I really, really do not want this to be a story.  Unfortunately, Houthis continues to target Red Sea vessels with attack drones.  Iran was linked to an attack on a vessel off the coast of India.  Global production rates are obviously very important...but mean little if the market is unable to move the product.  If these attacks escalate, at best vessel freights will climb and at worst will shut down.  It is impossible to forecast Black Swan events...but this one is on the radar.
  • Rebound in global demand - India surprised the world in stepping in just before Christmas weekend with a urea purchase tender.  Now, if we see other global buyers step forward, manufacturers will have sales options...and typically that leads to higher price ideas.  While we haven't seen a reaction yet, there is a lot of buying to be done before spring.  
  • China follows thru with export restriction plans - during "normal" times, China accounts for around 10% of global urea exports and based on announcements/reports, they will be cutting back exports from January 2024 thru March 2025 approximately 40% on average (typical 5MMT exported calendar year vs 4MMT proposed export allowance Jan '24 thru Mar '25).  That would be a chunk of inventory missing from the global S&D.
Bearish Factors
  • India goes ahead solo - in the bullish factors, I listed the world stepping in for competition with India which would drive prices higher.  However, there are still a lot of tons in the marketplace looking for homes.  In India's last purchase tender, there were 2M tons that we left in the market.  Then think of all the production since that time.  This doesn't feel like India can mop up global excess supply on its own.  If the rest of the world stays out, prices probably continue to see pressure.
  • China reverses course and exports heavily - never underestimate politics.  Right now, the Chinese government is discussing/threatening export restrictions.  However, domestic China can only hold so many tons and production rates continue to be heard solid.  Low global values and full domestic storage could have the government turn a 180 and start allowing unexpected heavy exports.  It wouldn't be the first time they have surprised us.
  • European natural gas values fall, causing nitrogen production to restart - in the week's since Hamas's attack on Israel, the Dutch TTF market has fallen substantially.  It topped out around $18MMbtu (for winter months) but has since dipped back into the $10 - $11MMbtu range.  If gas values continue to drop, it is not out of the realm of possibility that offline production could restart.  It will not be easy (old plants + winter temps + uncertain market outlook = tough restart decision), but it is possible.
Where are the current urea/grain ratio values today

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 135 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea
  • Spend 55 bushels to pay for 1 ton of urea

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA urea price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

 

image 86688

 

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image 86691

 

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Josh Linville’s Focal Points
  • Middle East tension - so far, the world has not responded as many believe it should in reaction/retaliation to vessel attacks.  I continue to question how long that patience will last.  Worst, I fear that these parties are merely testing the waters before going full scale.  If you wake up one morning to a broad war breaking out, enjoy your morning coffee and breakfast...and then ponder a trip to your local retailer.  Every morning I wake up and check the news for just such a story...I would suggest everyone consider doing the same.
  • World reaction to India buying - so far, the reaction has been mute which makes sense.  India picked a perfect time to step into the market with so many out on holiday (much fewer parties in the market means less reaction).  Also, their shipment window is thru February 29th (writing Feb 29 is never going to feel "right") which is very wide.  Today, I lean toward the world largely ignoring this and continuing to hold out for better pricing...but I've been wrong before.
  • Chinese export plans - right now, we are proceeding with the anticipation that China is reducing exports by approximately 40% per month thru March 2025.  If they change their mind and start exporting more heavily, it will be bearish.  If they further restrict exports, it will be bullish.
  • Today's values are still solid - if you didn't glance at the ratio charts above, I implore you to do so.  For most crops, today's urea values are solid.  I understand that they are historically high.  However, so are most grain values.  If you lock in today's urea pricing, sell next years grain against it and that ends up being your worst value for 2024, please call/e-mail/text and chew me out.  I will take it with a smile on my face because that means you just had yourself one hell of a profitable year.

StoneX Ratio Calculation

The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.

The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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