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July '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Ammonia

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

The first graph is the AVERAGE of the entire Midwest U.S. region.  That means your local value WILL be different than what the graph reflects.  Please do not take this into your retailer and say "why isn't my price the same as here".  That is comparing apples to oranges.  You might be on the cheaper or more expensive side of this graph.  This doesn't take into account logistics/storage/interest/insurance/shrink/etc.
This graph looks at the price from a short ton and USD currency POV.
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This second graph looks at the price set for Tampa NH3.  This value does not have a high correlation to Midwest values.  It is a talking point used when prices are rallying...yet somehow gets skipped on the way down.  This price is more an indication of the global price.  This price is set by two parties (purchaser - phosphate producer in Florida / seller - international producer providing NH3 to FL phosphate production).  
This graph CAN be used as an indication of global market price direction/trends.  This graph SHOULD NOT be used to determine a Midwest value.  Tonnage is listed in short ton and currency in USD.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Global
Frankly, I'm still baffled to see that global values are falling.  With Russian exports still near non-existent, I didn't figure there was much more downside to the price.  I was wrong...and I'm tired of being wrong.
Until the trend reverses, global NH3 values appear bearish.
Eventually, this trend will turnaround.  We might start to force some higher priced tons out of the market.  We might see demand pick up.  Then again, we might start getting all of this green/blue NH3 actually start getting produced and flood the world even further.
North America
Now that we have seen the summer fill programs:
Likely that values are going to be higher going into the fall season.
I know this is damned frustrating.  I'm telling you that prices look like they are going higher yet you are not getting anything offered.  If you are, it is only to fill your nurse bottles.  DO NOT TAKE IT OUT ON YOUR RETAILER.  IT ISN'T THEIR FAULT.  They do not set these price programs.  They have to sit back and wait for the fall shipment values to be released before they can come to you...all the while getting chewed out for not having it.  This is the way the NH3 market is ran, unfortunately.  On a positive note, unless they get brave with the fall premium over summer, the fall program should be attractive.
should you buy your fall '23 nh3 needs today?
Global
I struggle to see a ton of downside vs where we are today so that part of me says yes.  However, prices keep falling monthly so it is hard to argue with that trend. 
Frankly, this needs to be every individuals decision.  If it works, why wait?  If it doesn't, it makes sense to wait.
North America
There is nothing to do...yet.
But be ready.  I think we could see these values sooner than expected.  They were aggressive with their summer fill program, which wasn't a surprise.  Although current grain values are down, they are still relatively high vs historical.  From their perspective, why wait?  Get that value out there and start collecting money.
Will need to make sure we are ready to act.
general global nh3 information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
Russian exports remain insanely low
Obviously this has been a talking point for a while.  Unfortunately, it still is.
For those new, Russia's typical route for exporting NH3 is to produce it in Russia, place it into a pipeline...a pipeline that runs thru Ukraine...yes, that Ukraine...which runs to water, gets loaded onto a ship and around the world.  
Obviously the Russian invasion complicated the pipeline.  Originally, with fighting in the region, shipments stopped.  Then, when Ukraine started pushing them out, Russia started attacking the electrical grid.  No power = no pipeline movement.  Need pumps to keep NH3 flowing.  Today, enough power has been restored, the fighting is further away, global buyers are ready to take Russian product, Ukraine appears ready to allow shipments in return for other needs, etc.  Only problem is that an explosion which was rumored to have damaged the pipeline has happened, rendering it useless until repairs are made. 
Long story short, Russia has gone from global NH3 exporting goliath to an afterthought today.
image 74655
July Tampa NH3 value falls again
The July Tampa NH3 price was set very recently and it was a bit of a surprise.
The price was set at $285 or $55 lower than June.  
Now, a $55 drop in a month isn't huge.  Not by recent history standards.  We have seen months where the price has fallen well over $100.  However, $55 when values are in the $300's is a big deal and is indicative of a world market that is still struggling to find a toe hold.
I keep believing that we are near the end of NH3 values falling...but there are reasons to be wrong.  If Russia does find their way back (and that will likely happen no later than next year) or if all of these newly announced blue/green NH3 production facilities get built, it will create even more supply in a market that is already struggling with supply.
image 74656
Coming blue/green NH3 production coming and will disrupt things when it does
In case folks haven't noticed, there is this big green energy push going on around the world!
That has certainly included fertilizer.
There have been a lot of companies that have announced plans to build additional production or even new facilities to produce "clean" NH3.  There are different colors, but they all come back to the clean basis.
Now, I could write a book on whether this technology makes sense or not.  I've yet to meet anyone that can assure me that the tons produced will remain profitable without government intervention/funding/etc.  I'll leave that for the politicians...
Still, it appears plenty of new tons are going to come...eventually.  When they do, it is going to disrupt the markets.  Many of the tons/plants already have offtake agreements with built in demand.  However, none of these are ever 100% guaranteed and if that demand falls thru, we could see a situation where a lot of new tonnage finds its way into the agricultural marketplace.  Lot of new supply, no new demand...you know where I am going.
There is still a lot of story left to be told but it will be interesting to watch going forward.
N.A. summer fill programs announced at aggressive levels
North American NH3 manufacturers came out with their summer fill programs recently at very aggressive values.
I would like to say this up front.  If your retailer either did not contact you or only asked you about filling your tanks, it is because that is all this program was.  It WAS NOT the fall prepay program which sets the fall pricing.  This was ONLY for summer ship product.  NH3 storage is a very finite thing as it takes a lot of work/energy/money/etc. to keep it in storage.
Still, it was impressive that they were willing to drop the price like they did.  We still contend that we will go into the new fertilizer year (2024 starting July 1) with heavier than anticipated NH3 inventories.  This is due to a poor spring campaign with a small part to do with spring weather and a bigger part to do with NH3 prices being too high thru much of winter.  That heavy carryover meant that manufacturers needed to get aggressive to get sales on.  One of the scarier things for a nitrogen production facility is maxing NH3 storage.  It is easy to find storage for urea (dry).  It is somewhat easy to find storage for UAN (liquid).  NH3 is just a different beast and if you do not clear your storage, you are forced to shut down your NH3 production which also leads to shutting down Urea/UAN/etc.  With N.A. natural gas values extremely low and profits more than healthy, someone would lose their job if that plant went down for that reason.  Even with that pressure, there was some worry that they would get a little bold to maintain higher profits.
Again, hats off to them for taking what we see as the right step.  Now...we wait for that fall price.
Where are current values in relation to the past
U.S. Midwest Wholesale price average 
  • Vs 30 days ago - -26% or approximately $120 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -48% or approximately $305 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -65% or approximately $615 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -62% or approximately $540 lower

image 74646

 

U.S. Southern Plains price average

  • Vs 30 days ago - -37% or approximately $166 lower
  • Vs 90 days ago - -47% or approximately $251 lower
  • Vs 6 months ago - -69% or approximately $629 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -65% or approximately $530 lower

image 74647

Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors
  • Russian exports remain offline - the longer their tonnage remains cut from the world market, the tighter global S&D's get...in theory...not that prices would reflect that.  However, if there was a demand turnaround for NH3, it could find that supplies are not as plentiful as the price direction is reflecting which could quickly turn the marketplace.
  • Global values dip low enough to shut off high cost producers - this sure isn't something I thought I would be discussing anytime soon but here we are.  The further prices fall, the closer we get to high cost global producers start feeling the pinch.  Once we find that bottom, buyers will start to come out of the woodwork.
  • Enough N.A. demand steps forward at 1st fall priced program - if manufacturers come out with an aggressive fall NH3 price program (the one that sets fall values), we could see a big wave of demand come forward which could spook them into pulling back and repricing higher.  Certainly wouldn't be the first time.
Bearish Factors
  • How do you argue against the current trend? - prices have been coming off for quit a while.  Hard to look at that trend and say that prices should rally.
  • Russian and other tonnage is coming - eventually, Russia will find a way for their tons to be exported.  Eventually, new blue/green NH3 will begin being produced and disrupt normal supply chains.  Eventually, NH3 is going to look different...in a very possible bearish way.
  • Manufacturers get too proud of fall/grain keeps falling - manufacturers might be patting themselves on the back for approaching summer fill correctly.  They should.  I think they did exactly what they needed to.  However, if they get too impressed with themselves and try to price fall tonnage too high or if we keep seeing grain prices lower (we got another 1.5 inches of rain north of Kansas City this weekend...), that demand may not be as welcoming a 2nd time around.  If demand isn't there, it could spook them lower.
Where are the current nh3/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 150 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 100 bushels to pay for 1 ton of NH3

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA NH3 price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

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Josh Linville’s focal points
  • Russian exports are still near zero - it still astounds me that current values are as low as they are even with Russian exports near zero. Typically, Russia exports more NH3 than any other country in the world.  It is a HUGE loss...yet prices continue to trend down.  Why do we need to keep watching?  Imagine NH3 values if Russia started exporting again.
  • A lot of new blue/green/etc. NH3 production coming - this will still take some time but if/when these plants become operational, global NH3 is going to get messy.  There is going to be a lot more production...but then again, there is a lot of built demand ready to take on those tons...or is there?  Will all that demand still be in play?  Will some demand fall off and those tons go looking for new buyers?  Expect some interesting times in the months/years ahead.,
  • Watch the grain ratios more than the price - the summer fill NH3 values that were offered across North America were sharp compared to last year.  Compared to historical values...not really.  Compared to recent years ratios, you better believe it!  Great example that sometimes a higher price of fertilizer, when combined with a great grain price can result in fantastic values.  A gentleman before me used to say "this is a 3D world...we need to quit marketing in 2D".

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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