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June '23 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Potash

By: Josh Linville, Vice President- Fertilizer

Banner Fertilizer
June '23 POTASH
 
Josh Linville
Vice President - Fertilizer
NOLA potash price graph
Please remember that this is looking at the cost of one short ton of potash sitting in a barge at NOLA (New Orleans, Louisiana).  Your cost is not going to be the same.  This should be looked at more in regards to the price direction rather than the actual pricing.
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What everyone wants to know first, what do we think will happen going forward
Global
With global potash values significantly lower than last year's high's, global manufacturers appear to be pumping the brakes on production, expansions and new mines.  When margin's were hundreds of dollars higher, it made sense to want to bring every plant/ton online as soon as possible.  Declining price markets have a way of killing that vibe!!
Even with these slow-downs/delays, the global potash market continues to look weak.
Global values have remained under pressure even with Belarus largely cut from the global export market.  With it appearing that they are finding routes to reenter the marketplace, the outlook looks weak.
North America
What...a...spring.
By all accounts, it continues to look like spring demand wiped out inventories across North America.  We heard about this in discussions with multiple contacts in the marketplace.  We saw this in the late spring price rally.  This is exactly what potash suppliers/manufacturers were hoping for but still...
The outlook remains weak for potash values.
From our POV, potash values are still high in relation to grain values, farmers/retailers are not going to be aggressive in purchasing product early after what happened in the last year, interest rates/cost of carry is a very real price, etc.  While today's potash values are significantly lower than a year ago, the mindset is COMPLETELY different.  It's going to be on the supply side to convince buyers why they need to step forward early.
Should you lock in Fall '23 potash needs today?
Global
To me, it continues to feel like a buyers market which usually means waiting as long as possible should mean lower prices available.
The coming months are not exactly huge in the way of demand.  If today's values work for you and your time to buy is running out, then there is your answer.  However, if you have time to watch and see what happens, this market feels like there will be better opportunities ahead.
North America
The only reason I would have today to suggest purchasing fall needs would be the great spring run that ran inventories to extremely low levels.  That means that suppliers/manufacturers have PLENTY of space to fill/sell/etc.  That is a win for them.
Outside of that, I do not see much of a reason.
None of the grain/potash ratios are solid today.  Interest costs are becoming very real numbers.  While the market may prove us wrong, grain models are pointing to lower prices ahead.  
All in all, I believe better opportunities will be available.
General global potash information
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What has happened in the last 30 days?
Colonsay mine will not restart until 2H 2023 at earliest
This story, while relatively minor in the global scheme of things, sticks in my head.
The Colonsay mine has seen a lot of news in recent years.  It was a mine operation that had been idled.  However, after the surprise closure of a pair of mines elsewhere in Canada, this plant was restarted.  It certainly helped that the price of potash was skyrocketing which meant the margin for producing potash was skyrocketing.  Following a period of poor demand and lower values, the mine was stopped once again but appeared that it would come back online.
Now, manufacturers are almost always bullish since they produce product daily.  They are consistently long.  That is their place in the market and it shouldn't be held against them.  In recent earnings calls, most potash manufacturers pointed to higher priced days ahead (again, near constant bulls).  Some of their points are valid, but one statement stood out to me.
The plans for the Colonsay mine were said to include that it will not be operational until 2nd half 2023 at the earliest.
Why is that important?  If the true belief was that the potash market was going to see values rally once again, why wouldn't it start sooner?  There are always operational snags that can occur but if you saw margins rallying large, wouldn't you do everything in your power to get that thing online now?  Sort of like if you saw grain prices rally (or you really believed prices were going to skyrocket).  Wouldn't you do everything in your power to take advantage?
Again, on the global scale, this is just one operation but I think it is one of those situations where actions speak louder than words.
Global potash manufacturers pumping the brakes
In the last couple years, there have been several existing production site expansions along with new production sites which looked to capitalize on the high priced potash market.
Now, with global values down significantly from a year ago, those economics are not as shiny as they were.
Today, the expansion/new production slow downs are being heard.
This isn't to say that every single announced plan will be cancelled.  It just means that parties will slow down and take another hard look at the marketplace.  They need to reestablish what other operations will expand, where they see global demand going (and supply), etc.  Basically, this is a very good opportunity to relook at the market and decide if the investment is worth it.
North America had a solid spring potash run
As mentioned last month, every indication points to North America having a solid spring application/demand.  Not only did prices jump slightly toward the tail end of spring, values have largely held since that point.  We also hear of manufacturers/suppliers trying to use this as a reason for why potash values should hold or push higher.
Whenever there is a solid run like we just had that causes inventories to shrink, it is a major win for manufacturers.  If they see a market with tons of open warehouse space, they see that as a market with tons of sales opportunities.  They can pass on a "cheap" sales opportunity, knowing full well that there is plenty of chances ahead of them.
While this does not do enough to alter our outlook, it is certainly a real situation and one that needs to be watched.
Where are current values in relation to the past
NOLA/New Orleans Louisiana 
  • Vs 30 days ago - unchanged from last month
  • Vs 90 days ago - +5% or approximately $20 higher
  • Vs 6 months ago - -23% or approximately $115 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -49% or approximately $380 lower

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U.S. Midwest Average (average of several points across the Midwest)

  • Vs 30 days ago - unchanged from last month
  • Vs 90 days ago - unchanged from 3-months earlier
  • Vs 6 months ago - -26% or approximately $159 lower
  • Vs 1 year ago - -43% or approximately $353 lower
Bull/Bear Factors
Because no market is ever guaranteed to go higher/lower, we try to consider the factors that can sway values so that we are able to act when they occur rather than react.
Bullish Factors 
  • New production/plant expansions are slowing – this is the natural reaction from manufacturers when values start to plummet.  Profits are not nearly as high as they have been.  If we see a large amount of these plans be cancelled, we could see a market shift away from believing the world will be oversupplied to remaining tight in the coming years.
  • Huge spring run in N.A. emptied warehouses - expect this to be a major talking point because if I were a manufacturer, it would be the first thing I would talk about when summer fill started.  They are not wrong.  If this spring was as big as we think it was, there is going to be a lot of tons needed to get refilled by November.  Sure, there are a lot of months between now and then but those months go quickly and the market cannot wait forever to get prepared.
  • Could see the world in a "catch up" phase – it seems like it has been a while since we have seen solid potash demand.  Many farmers have the ability to reduce or skip an application here or there in times of high stress.  The flip side of that is that a catch up period is usually needed.  If application rates have been down, we could see larger demand in the coming fall/spring cycle.  That boost of demand could support the marketplace.
Bearish Factors 
  • Current grain/potash ratios remain high – while the ratio today may look really good vs a year ago, it is still very high vs "normal".  Basically, farmers are still spending more of their hard earned bushels to put toward their potash purchases.  At the very least, it could mean that demand gets delayed significantly toward fall season.  At the very worst, we could see farmers opt to skip fall applications in lieu of winter/spring...if at all.
  • Current potash values remain high vs historical – not only are the current grain/potash ratios high, so are current flat price vs historical.  It is easy to look at today's values thru rose colored glasses.  Come on, we are half the price of a year ago!!!  That said, do not lose sight of what normal truly is.  Not saying we absolutely will see prices down but there certainly is downside potential.
  • Manufacturing actions speak louder than words - as stated above when talking about the Colonsay mine, if the manufacturing/supply side of the market truly believed the outlook for potash was higher priced and tightly supplied, we would see everyone clambering to ramp up in preparation.  Perhaps I'm way off base on this one but I read a lot into a person's/organizations actions.
Where are the current potash/grain ratio values today?

We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:

  • Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
  • Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall

We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.

Would you rather:

  • Spend 120 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash
  • Spend 60 bushels to pay for 1 ton of potash

When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.

YOUR VALUES WILL LOOK DIFFERENT

This graph looks at the NOLA potash price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.

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Josh Linville’s focal points
  • Belarusian exports - we have seen the global potash market price decline significantly even without most of Belarusian exports which were blocked by Lithuania early last year.  There have been signs that they are finding new routes to export their product.  If we suddenly see those numbers jump, it means we have likely regained their product.  Lot more added supply usually equates to even lower values.
  • Grain values - it has been amazing to watch corns rebound.  For a short time, it was a near constant drop in price which was traumatizing potash price ideas.  Since then, we have seen a major rebound (Dec '24 corn jumping from its low of $4.85 to current $5.10 - $5.15).  While the ratio may still be "high", the rebound in corn values will certainly put buyers in a better mood which could support values.

All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.

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