Daily Coffee Report 8/13/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
Kenya’s Drought-Ravaged Farmlands Reveal One Bright Spot: Coffee’s Remarkable Resilience
By: Alexis Rubinstein, Managing Editor - Coffee Network
CoffeeNetwork (New York) - Kenya’s Central and Mt. Kenya regions are in the midst of a severe climate crisis. As fields of corn, wheat, and rice wither under relentless drought, farmers are battling losses, shrinking yields, and rising food insecurity. But amid the devastation, one crop stands out for its resilience, economic vitality, and surprising momentum: coffee.
A new USDA field assessment (FAS/Nairobi, January 2026) paints a stark picture of broad agricultural decline — yet highlights a coffee sector experiencing record prices, surging demand, and rapid expansion, even as it faces structural challenges.
The drought gripping Central Kenya has caused near-total failure in key food staples:
- Corn fields have collapsed after rains fell to just 30% of their normal levels. Farmers are chopping stunted stalks for livestock feed to salvage any value.
- Wheat in the Timau region has wilted before reaching grain fill, forcing farmers to graze livestock in failed fields or bale dead stalks for hay.
- Rice in the vital Mwea Irrigation Scheme is now operating under water rationing, disrupting ratoon cycles and delaying planting. Prices have already climbed due to expected shortages.
These crops, heavily dependent on seasonal rainfall or reliable irrigation, have little protection from prolonged drought — and farmers are paying the price.
Coffee, however, is charting a very different trajectory. Despite drought‑related stress on trees, Kenya’s coffee sector is enjoying one of its strongest periods in decades.
In September 2025, prices at the Nairobi Coffee Exchange hit a record Ksh 1,025 ($7.95) per kilogram of green coffee — the highest ever recorded. Industry sources link this rally to strong global demand and reduced supply from major producers like Brazil, Colombia, and Vietnam, as well as speculation by investment funds.
These exceptional prices have energized farmers across Central and Mt. Kenya. Many are intensifying production and upgrading farm practices. Others are expanding acreage, converting land from less profitable crops into coffee. Demand for planting material has exploded — reaching 15 million saplings — a figure far exceeding the supply capacity of Kenya’s Coffee Research Institute (CRI).
The government recently allocated Ksh 500 million ($3.88 million) toward seedling propagation, but CRI can meet only about 13% of current demand. This ongoing shortage of certified seedlings threatens to slow otherwise strong growth.
The drought is not leaving coffee untouched. Moisture stress is expected to reduce bean weight and quality in the current season. However, agronomists suggest this stress could trigger a heavy flowering once rains return in March, potentially leading to a strong 2026 main crop (October–December). Weather forecasts predict normal to above-normal rainfall for the March–May period.
In other words, coffee may suffer now, but conditions are aligning for a rebound later in the year.
Most coffee from Kenya’s Central region flows through cooperatives for processing and marketing. But while farm‑level production is rising, many cooperative wet mills lag far behind. Outdated pulping technology, poorly maintained equipment and infrastructure that risks damaging coffee quality at a crucial processing stage are all challenges still remaining.
As Kenya’s coffee sector grows, the quality bottleneck is shifting from farms to factories. The economic opportunity is enormous — but so is the need for investment.
Kenya’s coffee sector is poised for continued growth in 2026 and beyond. Prices remain strong, global supply remains tight, and local farmers are responding with renewed energy. But to seize this moment, Kenya must address systemic weaknesses in seedling supply, cooperative infrastructure, and climate resilience. If it does, coffee could become the stabilizing force in a year when nearly every other crop is in crisis.
Alexis Rubinstein
- Coffee
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Daily Coffee Report 8/12/26
Daily coffee report
StoneX Coffee Team
- Coffee
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