Precious Metals Talking points 060826: StoneX weekly gold, silver round-up; gold MM shorts at lowest since 28th January
Politics, economic, geopolitics and investor sentiment
Rhona O'Connell
- Precious Metals
LBMA loco London volumes; daily market and trade analysis for December and full year 2025
By: Rhona O'Connell, Head of Market Analysis
We write a brief monthly analysis of the LBMA's daily trading volumes in the spot, forward, lease and options markets for gold, silver, platinum and palladium; the figures, when set against market background and economic and financial forces, can be very revealing.
LBMA Precious Metals market volumes, December and year 2025, and their significance
Rhona O’Connell, StoneX Financial Ltd; 22nd January 2026
Any views expressed here are of the writer and do not reflect a house view from NASDAQ.
A very happy, peaceful and prosperous New Year to our readers.
To make a change as we enter the New Year, this edition will be slightly different from the norm, with these initial charts looking back over the year before we move into text. Every picture tells a story!
2025 full-year sectoral market shares
GOLD
SILVER
PLATINUM
PALLADIUM
2025 spot volumes, ounces
GOLD
SILVER
PLATINUM
PALLADIUM
Source: for all eight charts above; LBMA, StoneX
COMEX, NYMEX, positioning
GOLD
SILVER
PLATINUM
PALLADIUM
Source: CFTC, StoneX
December in brief:
Daily December average compared with daily average for the previous twelve months.
Source: LBMA
Source: LBMA
Welcome to our monthly round-up of the LBMA OTC trading volumes in gold, silver, platinum and palladium, as recorded on a daily basis by the Association. These are split into spot, swap/forward, options and LoanLeaseDeposit (LLD) and give a flavour of the markets’ activity and how they were influenced by external forces and news items.
All references to COMEX or NYMEX positioning refer to Managed Money, not commercial positions.
General introduction:
CME raised margins on all four precious metals towards month-end, contributing to sharp price corrections in all four, on 29th December.
Margin changes can be found here
December: silver and platinum in the spotlight where spot and option volumes are concerned. Both metals remained tight with EFPs flying in and out as the US tariff issue continued to inform sentiment. By this stage silver was hurtling higher, trading off its own momentum, to reach a high of $84.0 on the 29th before it took a breather, prompted in part, by the margin changes.
Gold was still going strong, peaking at $4,550 (intraday) on Boxing Day, when London markets were closed but New York was open, before correcting towards $4,270 and settling into a narrow range as we moved into the New Year. Sentiment remained buoyant, although the US’ strike on Venezuelan soil only generated a rally of only $100 (just 2.5%), which was pretty rapidly unwound, reflecting the fact that there is a substantial geopolitical premium already priced in.
Platinum also reached the year’s high on 29th at $2,491 and this metal, too, was speeding higher in a self-fulfilling move as conditions remained tight and both platinum and palladium enjoyed the first month of futures trading on the Guangzhou futures market.
Palladium was pulled up in platinum’s wake, although it is worth noting that palladium ETFs expanded by a full 50% over 2025 as a whole. Palladium also peaked for the year on 29th December, at $1,982 before three days of falls, sliding to $1,490, a fall of 24%, before rebounding towards $1,800.
The long-term outlook remains bleak, however and while platinum’s prosects are brighter, both metals started 2026 overbought, and a correction is likely for both of them.
Gold, silver, platinum and palladium, 2025
The US yield 5Y-30Y curve; interest re-appears in the longer tenors.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
GOLD
- Spot volumes up 8% over the previous 12-month daily average, all else substantially lower, reflecting uncertainty over the price trajectory. Spot volumes were concentrated in mid-month, once spot had breached $4,200 and moved up to $4,400; a short breather and then the move to the peak was in reasonably heavy volume The end-month correction was in thin conditions.
- Options had one busy day when gold was hovering around $4,300 so both puts and calls could have been in play; subsequent action suggest that calls had the upper hand.
- The LLD market turnover was very thin, with the only real action at the start of the month, which may have contributed to the difficulty the price had in breaking upwards from $4,200.
Turnver, M ounces
Source: NASDAQ, LBMA
Spot gold in nominal and real terms (deflator; US CPI)
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Gold, 2025
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
SILVER
As the market became more frenetic spot volumes almost doubled against the previous 12-month average, with the high volumes concentrated in the final few days. Options were up 57% and swap/forwards, 10%. The LLD sector was off by 48%, suggesting that no-one wanted to sell forward into a whirlwind, for fear of opportunity cost. When this goes into reverse we may well see LLD volumes bounce.
Silver spot and active contract
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile retail demand for coins and bars has continued to balloon in Europe and parts of Asai. New York remains at a discount to London.
Turnover
Source: NASDAQ
There were four standout days in the spot market. The first two were the 12th and the 17th when, just like gold, silver was pushing into new levels. Unlike gold, however, the 12th was a day of price retreat from just under $65, to $62.and this coincided with heavy options trading so it is possible that put options were in play, likely at the $65 level.
On the 17th prices were forging higher again, pushing through $65 so there may have been some short covering here as silver moved up to $67, providing a springboard for the burst higher. That saw five consecutive bullish days, from $64 to $79, including the heavy day on the $23rd when $70 was breached, culminating in a test of on the 29th, which was extremely heavy volume under what was almost certainly profit taking.
Gold:silver ratio
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
PLATINUM and PALLADIUM
While spot platinum and LLD volumes were down by 18% and 31% respectively, there was massive activity in the options sector in December, up 85% against the previous 12-month average, with the heaviest days clustered in the middle of the month. This coincided with the strong run in prices, from .$1,800 to $2,300, a gain of 28% the strongest days in swap/forwards, more or less coincided with these days, as they did for spot (albeit that volumes were lower than the previous average).
This was on the back of continued tight supply with continued additions to ETF holdings (up 6.4t over the month) and NYMEX inventories rising by 1.2t. That took 7.6t out of the free float in the market and lease rates rose again accordingly.
At end-month the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) margin changes led to a sharp drop in price from the month’s high of $2,491 to $2,075. Volumes were heavy in spot loco London. On the other side of the world the Guangzhou Futures exchange imposed single-day open interest limits on both platinum and palladium as of 23rd December, amid strong demand.
Palladium volumes were down everywhere except swap/forwards, which were up 11%, with quiet conditions early on, but picking up smartly in the final week, suggesting forward selling into the top of the very rapid surge that took spot from $1,500 to $1,962 in the space of ten days, boosted by platinum strength and underpinned by, much like platinum, sustained ETF investment with only three days of redemptions over the month. Just prior to the forwards perking up, spot was comparatively busy as stakeholders were drawn into the rally, feeding the fire. Options were moribund, while the only real action in the LLD was in the first two days of December, temporarily capping the rally in the final week of November, which saw spot briefly clear $1,500 which may have been a psychological target.
Platinum implied one-month lease rate, January 2024 -to-date.
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Turnover
Source: NASDAQ
Platinum, palladium and the ratio, January 2022 to date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Platinum; NYMEX inventories, ounces
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Spot platinum, palladium and the spread, January 2020 to date
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
Platinum, gold and the ratio
Source: Bloomberg, StoneX
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