I will say this now and will say it going forward to eternity: these are the flat price graphs for each individual location. Your price where you are is going to be different. There are logistics. There is the cost of storage/interest/insurance/etc. These graphs should not be taken as "it shows the price at $700, why isn't my price $700". These graphs should be used to give an appreciation for price movements.
All values are in metric tons and USD currency.
Global
On the surface, not much has changed. Global supplies continue to be tighter than normal with Chinese export flows continuing lower than normal. Demand also hasn’t been drawn back as some have expected (put me in that camp). So, the S&D remains tight.
However, there is the emotional side to consider, and that emotion is quickly becoming one of fear. Fear of missing spring and carrying product into the late spring/summer/fall season. While there is still plenty of spring demand remaining, the calendar is getting awfully thin to be targeting that.
For the next month, I expect that values will remain flat. There is still plenty of demand out there and supplies are snug. However, then we must start considering what summer resets look like. Current prices are high which means there is plenty of downside price risk on top of heavy month to month carry costs. The timing could be a little hazy, but buyers could see some price reprieve in the next couple months.
North America
The table is set for spring from a supply standpoint. What I mean is that it is too late to call additional vessels from global supply points that are not already in the plans. It takes several weeks for a vessel to ship and arrive. Then, it takes more time to distribute that product to where it needs to be. Any additionally called upon tonnages will simply arrive too late.
To make matters worse, demand has been growing. We started 2025 with our corn acreage forecast at 92M. Before my family and I left for Orlando on vacation, we increased it to 92.5M. I was only gone a week but came back to a further revision to 93.5M. The big demand worry is that we lean to the higher side which is what several others are forecast (94 to 96M is not uncommon). This demand is getting added when it is simply too late to call more tons in.
Because of this, I think we will see prices hold and push higher over the next month. Then, once spring application is done, the market will turn its attention to summer resets. Historically speaking, the summer is when phosphate hits its lowest point.
One word of caution. There will likely be a time coming when you see global and NOLA values starting to fall…and your local prices do not. Those lower prices should be available to you…if you are willing to wait for them to arrive. Remember, it takes several weeks for product to ship and arrive nearby. The tons that are already in place were secured at higher values and are available now.
I’m not going to say that there are going to be shortages. That story has cried wolf too many times. However, inventories are going to be snug. If you are going to play the timing game in hopes of getting product cheaper, PLEASE make sure the game doesn’t end with you struggling to find product when you need it.
India agrees to 2.4M ton phosphate contract with Morocco
In a bit of a surprise move, the Indian government agreed to a 2.4M ton phosphate contract with Moroccan producer OCP with a shipment window thru the remainder of 2025.
For those that are new, it is important to understand how India's ag market operates. Unlike most of the world, Indian farmers see flat pricing of their inputs in the face of a volatile global market. In order to allow imports, the government subsidizes the price differential between global values and their farmer values. This is a massive cost to the government and creates a situation where if/when supplies run low, it is widely seen as the governments fault.
Since the summer of 2024, Indian phosphate stockpiles have struggled due to inadequate or late moves by the government in terms of their subsidies. Last summer, global values were falling as it appeared that Chinese exports were returning to normal. After years of massive subsidies, the government cut their programs further in an attempt to slow import purchases and hopefully save a few dollars. This worked...for a short time.
It wasn't long before the Chinese government reversed the markets belief. Exports began to slow, global demand began to pick up as a result, and global values started to rise once again. Rather than quickly get ahead of global price appreciation, the Indian government was slow to respond and importers spent much of the rest of the year struggling to obtain tonnage. The stalemate was finally broken during the Q3 period when government representatives traveled to Morocco, penned a half million ton purchase, and fixed the subsidy program. Unfortunately, it wasn't quick enough. Normally at the start of the new year, stockpiles are around a comfortable 2M ton number. At the start of 2025, it was widely believed that stockpiles were "only" 1.2M.
Rather than continue to struggle, India took the bold move of entering into a massive purchase agreement with OCP in Morocco. A total of 2.4M tons of phosphate was purchased to ship thru the remainder of 2025. Most of it is set to ship before Q3. 1.6M tons will be DAP. The remaining 800K tons will be triple super phosphate. More interesting is that the tons will be based on formula pricing. That has raised a few eyebrows across the industry.
Global phosphate is a relatively small group of nations. 5 countries control approximately 85 - 90% of global production and exports. Phosphate acts and prices as a commodity. However, with so few major players, minor moves can have major impacts.
For Indian farmers, this should be seen as great news. It lessens the risk of inventories dropping to low levels. Given that they do not see global price volatility, all they should care about is availability.
For the rest of the world, this is 2.4M tons that are now secured. The demand has not changed. The supply has not changed. But it removes 2.4M tons of business from other buyers.
Ma'aden announces expansion of phosphate production capabilities
It isn't often that I get to give positive news in the phosphate markets so I'm going to jump at the chance when it happens!!!
It appears that Saudi Arabian based phosphate producer Ma'aden has taken major steps to begin expanding their phosphate production capabilities. This is huge news for a market controlled by so few countries.
Details are still coming out but here is what we have seen and heard:
- This expansion has long been aptly named "Phosphate 3" (you will never guess what the previous 2 were called!!)
- Estimated costs were pegged at around $6.5B back in 2016
- Believed it will add another 3M tons of finished phosphates on an annual basis
Obviously this will take time before construction is completed and the first new tons are produced. However, it helps to give the global market a bit of hope. Tight global supplies over the last few years as the result of Chinese exports being restricted have been the biggest story and cause of significantly higher values than what is considered "normal".
My bigger hope of this story is that it might cause other nations to consider doing something similar. Other places like Morocco are understood to have massive phosphate rock reserves. The phosphate rock is not the issue. It is merely the limitation of mining and production capabilities. These can be increased with investments.
Again, this likely is not a story that will help lower price ideas in the short term. It does provide a bit of light in an otherwise very dark tunnel.
N.A. tariff threats could lead to higher phosphate values for Canadian farmers
As President Trump took office for his 2nd term, one of the biggest story for North American ag were tariff threats by Trump against Canada...and vice versa. February 1 loomed large as it was widely expected that wide ranging tariff's would be put into place against Canadian goods flowing into the U.S. Most expected Canada to respond in kind with tariff's of their own. The major agricultural story of the situation was the U.S. reliance on Canadian potash. This story was absolutely correct given the millions of tons that flow across the border each year. However, many missed Canada's reliance on phosphate shipped from the U.S. and given how high phosphate is valued today, a 25% tariff was going to be MUCH more impactful.
Obviously, that story ended with a delay. Common ground was found between the two countries and it was agreed that it would be "revisited" in the near future. I have heard March 1 and April 1 but it sounds as though tariff's are still a possibility.
Now, I do not expect that we will tariff's be put into place. My somewhat ignorant view of Trump is that he runs his position as a businessman, not as a politician. That approach confuses a lot of folks. Rather than put forth an idea and spend months or years working on that idea, Trump likes to lob the idea in like a grenade with the pin pulled into a room, and then pick up the pieces afterwards. This is his way of not only speeding the process but also creating a sense of uncomfortableness that helps in negotiations. I was never a believer that tariff's would go into effect, but it would be foolish for me to think that if common ground wasn't found that he wouldn't proceed.
So, back to fertilizer.
As I mentioned, many discussed what it meant for U.S. farmers for their potash inputs. This story was very real...but potash was already very well priced and a 25% penalty/tariff would be relatively small and much more easily digested. However, Canadian farmers could possibly be much more impacted by their phosphate inputs if Canada responded in kind. Phosphate values continue to be historically high priced. A 25% penalty/tariff on top of an already high priced phosphate product would result in a massive price increase on a product that is already tightly supplied and extremely high valued vs grain prices.
Again, hopefully this will be a story that never happens. The hope is that common ground will continue to be found and normal relations return but this is fertilizer. When is the last time something that should have happened actually happen?!
N.A. phosphate values climbing on back on tighter supplies, growing demand
Spring is coming very quickly. Looking at the forecast for much of the Midwest U.S., some of you might be in the fields before you open it.
That is great news following a brief but rather harsh winter. In Kansas City, very low temps and much more snowfall than we are used made winter seem even longer. However, as hard as the last couple months have been, the forecast is showing high's ranging from the 50's to 70's (10's to 20's C for you other folks!!!).
Temperature forecasts are not the only thing that have been rising. We are also seeing a lot of corn acreage forecasts rising as well. We are very much a part of that group:
- Start of 2025 - 92M
- 1.5 weeks in 2025 - 92.5M
- 2nd half January - 93.5M
Today, we are still sitting at 93.5M acres...but we lean to the higher side. Many forecasts have placed their expectation in the 94 - 96M range and it is hard to argue. A corn/bean price ratio that leans heavily to corn. Poor overall economics but corn current stands above as the best chance at profitability. While we try to take a conservative approach to our forecast (do not want to be wildly swinging up and down), today feels like our next step will be higher.
What does that mean for phosphate? More demand...with not much time to pivot.
If you consider that today is nearly the start of March, it is simply too late to call upon new tons to arrive in time. Many global points take approximately a month to sail and arrive at ports. Then, it takes another several weeks to move that product into the system and into storage where it is available to farmers. That means anything called upon today will not be available until early May at best. That is just too late to reach demand.
So today, with corn acres rising, that should mean phosphate demand is rising as well. If we cannot do anything to fix supplies so they stay steady and demand is rising, Econ 101 say that prices should push higher. Now, that is not a guarantee. There is still a chance that the market will be surprised by demand destruction in the face of obscenely high phosphate values. Also doesn't help that even though grain prices have risen, farm profitability still stinks for this year which could have farmers looking to cut.
This is not a situation where I think that prices are going to rally to their late 2021/early 2022 high's, but I certainly think it merits a conversation with your supplier.
What does this mean for farmers?
Unchanging supplies + rising demand = more likely higher prices
As mentioned before, we could see demand cut as farmers struggle with high prices/poor profitability. Phosphate certainly stands out as the most "overpriced" input today. However, we have expected phosphate demand destruction during worse periods and have been surprised that the needle really never moves away from normal. Farmers understand that if they leave phosphate deficient, it reduces overall yield potential. That means all the spending on other fertilizers, seeds, chemical, equipment, fuel, etc. mean extremely less.
This just moves the needle a little further into the bullish realm.
NOLA/New Orleans, Louisiana DAP price comparison
Number 5 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons
Vs 30 days ago - 2% or approximately $14 higher
Vs 90 days ago -4% or approximately $22 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 10% or approximately $54 higher
Vs 1 year ago - -3% or approximately $18 lower
U.S. Midwest Average (using multiple points across Midwest) price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 2% or approximately $12 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 1% or approximately $7 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 3% or approximately $20 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 5% or approximately $33 higher
U.S. Northern Plains Average price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $6 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 3% or approximately $20 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $53 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 5% or approximately $29 higher
U.S. Southern Plains Average price comparison
Vs 30 days ago - 1% or approximately $7 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 3% or approximately $20 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $51 higher
Vs 1 year ago - unchanged vs 1 year earlier
Morocco DAP price comparison
Number 1 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - 3% or approximately $16 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 2% or approximately $13 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 6^ or approximately $38 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 7% or approximately $40 higher
Black Sea DAP price comparison
Number 3 exporter of DAP/MAP in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - 2% or approximately $13 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 1% or approximately $5 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 1% or approximately $7 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 7% or approximately $36 higher
India DAP price comparison
Number 1 global importer in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - unchanged vs 3-months earlier
Vs 6 months ago - 3% or approximately $17 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 7% or approximately $41 higher
China DAP price comparison
Number 2 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - 1% or approximately $8 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 3% or approximately $18 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 7% or approximately $39 higher
Saudi Arabia DAP price comparison
Number 4 global exporter in 2022
Price comparisons:
Vs 30 days ago - 3% or approximately $16 higher
Vs 90 days ago - 1% or approximately $8 higher
Vs 6 months ago - 9% or approximately $50 higher
Vs 1 year ago - 5% or approximately $30 higher
Brazil DAP price comparison
Number 2 global importer in 2022
Price comparisons
Vs 30 days ago - unchanged vs last month
Vs 90 days ago - unchanged vs 3-months earlier
Vs 6 months ago - unchanged vs 6-months earlier
Vs 1 year ago - 13% or approximately $75 higher
- Chinese exports remain low – the world's historic largest phosphate exporter continues to pump the brakes on their flows, and the world is paying the price. As long as their exports remain slow, the global S&D remains snug and values elevated.
- Growing spring demand/corn acres slams limited supplies – N.A. might have had a weird/late fall, but in the end it was solid. A lot of warehouses were cleared out. To boot, the fall ran until near Christmas for a lot of territory. That means a very limited time to refill the system. Now, we are building demand on the back of rising corn acres. Any application rate cuts could easily be outdone by the additional acres. All this to say that the N.A. S&D appears to be tightening by the day.
- Just in time demand meets just in time supplies – farmers have been struggling all winter with what to do with their 2025 crop mixes. For many, corn looks like the obvious answer...but it still isn't that attractive. This has caused a lot of folks to drag their feet on purchases until the last minute in hopes of a clear path opening. Well, that time is about out. Spring is upon us. That means last minute purchases will be subject to just in time logistics which are rarely cheap.
- High phosphate values/low grain prices/poor farm economics cut rates – phosphate continues to stand out as the worst input in terms of price vs grains. It is so far overpriced that many continue to talk about cutting their rates to get a step closer to break even. There is a certain amount of danger in this approach as it can limit total yield potential but if enough farmers determine the risk is worth it, we could see enough demand destruction to weigh on price ideas.
- China could start exporting normally tomorrow – does it look likely that China will start exporting just before their spring season? Absolutely not. Allowing exports to resume would likely mean domestic Chinese phosphate values start to climb. That is completely against what their strategy has been (reduce exports, keep healthy stockpiles at home, lower domestic values). However, never say never with China. They could easily shock us and allow a full resumption.
- Fear of carryover – right now, the resounding conversation in the phosphate market is tight supplies which "should" mean higher prices. However, a person would be lying if they told you they didn't worry about holding onto a position for too long. Eventually, spring demand will give way to planting. The next time phosphate will be in demand will be for summer fill. Given how high priced phosphate currently is, it leaves a lot of downside price potential. That fear could mean we see long positions selling lower earlier than expected to get ahead of the rush.
We believe that only looking at the flat price of either grains or fertilizer can be misleading:
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Only selling grain can hurt you if fertilizer prices rise substantially
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Only buying fertilizer can hurt you if grain prices fall
We look at the ratio "value" to get a better indication of where we are or how many bushels of X does it take to pay for 1 ton of fertilizer.
Would you rather:
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Spend 150 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
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Spend 80 bushels to pay for 1 ton of DAP
When we compare the current ratio value against recent years, we start to see if we are high or low.
YOUR VALUES MAY LOOK DIFFERENT
This graph looks at the NOLA DAP price vs the flat grain price. There are no logistics on either product. Your location will look different due to fertilizer logistical costs, grain basis, etc.
- Chinese export programs - the biggest global exporter continues to put restrictions in place for phosphates. Normally, they export around 10M tons per year. 2024 saw them hit 6.6M, leaving a 3.4M ton hole in an export market that is much smaller than most believe. The Chinese spring season is looming which means there is little reason to believe they would loosen the program now. If they did, likely that domestic Chinese values would rise, going completely against the governments long strategy. However, it isn't guaranteed. Just as soon as we think we know what they are going to do, they will surprise us. Hence, China remains the biggest enigma in the phosphate market, and remains the biggest influencer on global values.
- N.A. rising demand with little time to prepare - I will admit that there is a decent chance that demand will disappoint somewhat this spring. Phosphate values are incredibly high vs most grains. To make matters worse, farmers are struggling with their 2025 finances. That means they/you will be looking for any place where costs can be cut. Now, there is danger in cutting. You can save a few dollars on your phosphate input but it could pale in comparison to overall yield loss (if that happens). All to say that demand is growing right as spring is set to begin. We have moved our corn acres from 92M to 93.5M and that pales to some estimates in the 95 - 96M range. That is a lot of demand growth just before the start line.
- Eventual market conversion from "tight spring supplies" to "carryover fears" - spring doesn't last forever. In fact, once we get into the 1st or 2nd week of April, most phosphate demand for N.A. is done with farmers focusing on planting. At some point, the market will no longer be worried about spring supply tightness and will instead focus on making sure they clear out every pound. No one will want to carry product into the summer for fear of the price falling. Prices should fall but unfortunately, I think it will be too late for most demand.
StoneX Ratio Calculation
The ratio calculation is derived from Bloomberg historical grains values as well as fertilizer values from StoneX, NPKFAS, and Argus.
The calculation is simply dividing the fertilizer price by each grain price.
All data was sourced from StoneX unless otherwise noted.
