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Morning Ferrous Markets

By: Spencer Johnson, Risk Management Consultant

Morning Ferrous Markets


Spencer Johnson

Risk Management Consultant

+1 212-379-5492

spencer.johnson@stonex.com

Jay Horton

Base Metals Sales

+1 212-379-5553

john.horton@stonex.com


Market Overview

The ferrous markets continue to exhibit pronounced volatility, driven by a mix of geopolitical and economic factors. Concerns over China's property market and U.S. tariffs on steel have added pressure on iron ore and steel futures. Additionally, stockpiling in Chinese ports during a traditionally strong demand season signals weakening demand, impacting global price trends. Recent data also highlights softer steel output in China and ROW, with significant implications for iron ore demand. Meanwhile, European steel is expected to benefit from stronger protectionism measures, potentially reducing HRC imports by 20% and supporting domestic demand. In the U.S., the EAF spread is up, while overall steel markets face challenges with pricing pressures due to weaker-than-expected demand. These developments create a complex environment for US HRC Steel, SGX Iron Ore, and Turkish Scrap, where stakeholders must navigate a landscape marked by regulatory changes, global economic uncertainties, and shifting supply-demand dynamics.

Upcoming Data Releases

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US HRC Steel: Market Dynamics and Price Trends

The US HRC steel market is experiencing pricing pressures due to weaker-than-expected demand during what is typically a strong quarter. The US EAF steel spread increased by 2% to $350/t over the week. Recent pricing insights show that the November 2024 contract increased by 1.56% to $845.0 USD/T, and the October 2024 contract rose by 0.72% to $840.0 USD/T. Despite a slight increase in Nucor's CSP to $770/st, the overall outlook remains cautious. The recent inflation report from the Fed indicates potential rate cuts, which could influence market dynamics further. Concerns over weaker-than-usual demand, combined with a potential summertime lull, continue to pressure prices. While there is potential for a soft reversal driven by import arbitrage and opportunistic restocking, the overall outlook remains cautious with healthy inventories and completed spring maintenance limiting near-term demand.

HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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StoneX & Bloomberg

SGX Iron Ore: Volatility, Demand Uncertainty, and Supply Surpluses. Today, prices down.

China’s iron ore market is facing heightened volatility driven by the country's faltering real estate sector and global oversupply. Despite China’s $42B initiative to stabilize the housing market, iron ore prices continue to retreat. Record exports from Brazil and Australia have exacerbated Chinese iron ore surpluses, pushing SGX iron ore futures down. The July 2024 contract decreased by 1.63% to $113.6 USD/MT, the June 2024 contract dropped by 1.6% to $113.6 USD/MT, and the November 2024 contract increased by 1.68% to $110.2 USD/MT. The October 2024 contract also rose by 1.48% to $110.6 USD/MT. However, future contracts for January, February, and March 2025 decreased by 4.36%, 4.3%, and 4.27% respectively. Recent data indicates that iron ore prices have dropped to their lowest level in six weeks due to concerns over Chinese demand. Additionally, the November contract's price is up 1.82 USD/MT, indicating a potential trend reversal from downward to upward. The overall picture shows a complex market where supply continues to outstrip demand, leading to ongoing price pressures.

SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Turkish Steel Scrap: Supply Constraints and Rising Costs

The Turkish steel scrap market remains under pressure due to tight scrap supply and reduced industrial output. Prices for Turkey scrap were flat at $379/t over the week. Recent pricing insights indicate that Turkish rebar for March 2025 increased by 0.33% to $605.5 USD/MT. In May, the domestic producer price index (PPI) for Turkey's basic metal industry fell by 1.25% month-on-month but was up by 47.93% year-over-year. The general PPI for Turkish industry rose by 1.96% month-on-month and 57.68% year-over-year. Additionally, the European Commission announced the extension of the EU Safeguard measure against certain steel products until mid-2026 and the anti-dumping measure against stainless steel tubes from China. These measures are expected to support domestic production and potentially increase prices. Despite these regulatory supports, the market faces ongoing challenges with balancing supply and demand dynamics amidst global uncertainties.

Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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StoneX & Bloomberg

Current Prices

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StoneX & Bloomberg

  • Base Metals

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