Morning Ferrous Markets
Market Overview
Recent macroeconomic data indicates a challenging environment for industrial markets. The May ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.7, below the consensus estimate, marking a prolonged period of contraction. The Dodge Momentum Index rose 3% month-over-month but remains down 7% year-over-year, with commercial activity showing resilience due to datacenter projects. US non-residential construction spending remained flat in April, indicating a slowdown. The US LV SAAR tracked to 15.9 million units in May, signaling an early stage of supply-demand equilibrium. Investor sentiment remains cautious regarding the pending X/NSC deal, with concerns over regulatory reviews and market impacts.
Upcoming Data Releases

North American (US) HRC Steel Market
US HRC steel prices are under significant downward pressure, nearly reaching parity with imports. June and July US HRC futures contracts are trading around $728/st and $725/st, respectively, indicating continued price weakness. The spread between domestic and imported HRC has narrowed to just $10/st, the lowest premium since October. Despite this bearish short-term outlook driven by lower scrap costs, reduced demand, and limited restocking activity, prices are expected to rise from August through December, ranging from $760 to $825 per short ton. US Steel's property acquisitions near the Minntac iron ore mine suggest future expansion plans, while Nucor's acquisition of Rytec Corporation highlights efforts to diversify downstream revenues. The initial June scrap trade showed substantial price drops, further depressing steel prices. Longs prices in North America continue to fall due to sufficient inventories and lower scrap prices, with rebar down $1.00/cwt to $39.50/cwt and wire rod down $4.00/cwt.
HRC Front Month 3 Day Trend

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HRC Front Month 6 Month Price Trend

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Chinese Steel & Iron Ore Markets
Iron ore prices fell following back-to-back weekly losses, trading as low as $106.10/ton due to thin trading during the Chinese holiday. Despite a rebound in steel exports to 9.63 million tons in May, domestic consumption remains weak, causing high inventories at ports. China's steel production increased in May, with steel exports annualizing at 113 million tons. However, policy measures to reduce energy consumption and carbon emissions might restrict new production capacity and affect iron ore demand negatively. Additionally, Chinese steel exports running at their highest levels since 2016 are creating economic tensions globally, potentially leading to tighter controls and reduced exports.
SGX Iron Ore CFR China (62%) Futures

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European Steel and Steel Scrap Markets
The European steel scrap market faces significant pressure due to the EU's revised safeguard measures, which extend until June 2026 and impose a 15% cap on HRC imports from countries like Vietnam, Japan, Taiwan, and Egypt. This cap is expected to cut imports by 1.63 million tons, potentially causing a steel shortage and price hikes in the European manufacturing sector. Concurrently, Turkey's HRC exports surged by 100.2% year-on-year in the first four months of 2024, with Italy, Spain, and Egypt as major destinations, further affecting the European market. Today, Turkish steel scrap prices declined, with June 2024 down 0.65% to $382.50/MT, July 2024 down 0.65% to $385.00/MT, and December 2024 dropping 1.01% to $393.00/MT.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has lowered policy rates, signaling cautious easing amid concerns that inflation won't meet the 2% target until 2Q26. April retail sales in the Euro area declined by 0.5%, with consumer spending trends remaining flat. While the Euro area composite PMI indicates above-potential growth, German manufacturing PMIs and industrial data show mixed signals, with industrial orders down 0.2% in April. Despite the ECB's efforts to stimulate growth, mixed industrial data and cautious investor sentiment reflect ongoing challenges in the sector.
Turkish Scrap 1st Month Futures

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Current Prices





