StoneX logo

New Zealand enters a technical recession

By: Matt Simpson, Market Analyst

New Zealand enters a technical recession
 
Matthew Simpson
Senior Market Analyst

Market summary

  • The Fed delivered the hawkish pause with rates remaining at 5.00-5.25%, but warned of another 50bp hikes by December (read the FOMC meeting review)

    • 2023 Forecasts: Fed Fund futures increased to 5.6% (5.1% prior), GDP up to 1% (0.4% prior), unemployment lowered to 4.1% (4.5% prior), PCE inflation lowered to 3.2% (3.5% prior) Core PCE lowered to 3.9% (3.6% prior)
    • Fed fund futures currently imply a 64.5% chance of another 25bp hike in July, or a 60.5% chance of one in June 

 

 

  • The 2-year yield rose to a 3-month high of 4.8% before pulling back to close at a 3-month high 
  • US indices initially fell and the Dow Jones hit a 3-day low, but by the close the Nasdaq had closed above 15k and the S&P 500 had erased earlier losses to close with a Spinning Top candle
  • With other central banks facing further pressures to hike, the US dollar was in fact the weakest FX major whilst NZD, AUD and CHF were the strongest
  • EUR/USD reached a 3-week high before pulling back to close beneath its 50-week EMA, AUD/USD rose to a 16-week high but closed back below 68c (a key resistance level since the RBA paused in April), USD/JPY handed back most of Wednesday’s gains before closing back above 140 and remaining within its recent consolidation range
  • There was no major breakout on gold or oil either, with gold holding above last week’s low and WTI falling back beneath $70 after an intraday break above it
  • The DAX closed at a record high, the close was just beneath its intraday high of 16,331.94 after a brief spell above it
  • Australian consumer confidence fell -3.1 points to 72.7 after the last RBA hike, with the ANZ-Roy Morgan report citing deteriorating buying conditions 
  • NZ GDP contracted for a second consecutive quarter to earn the economy a ‘technical recession’ tag
  • The IMF warned that the RBNZ may need to hike rates again and keep them elevated for some time

 

AUD/NZD daily chart:

 
AUD/NZD failed to close above the YTD close high (despite several attempts) or even retest the actual YTD high before momentum turned lower on the daily chart. Prices fell towards the April low ahead of today’s GDP report, where the negative quarterly print weakened the NZD and helped recoup much of yesterday’s losses. Whether it can bounce further is likely down to how strong today’s Australian employment print is, but with the RBNZ holding the higher interest rate (and the IMF hinting that further hikes may be needed) then it may struggle to break back above this week’s high. 

From here, we’re looking for evidence of an intraday lower high (beneath this week’s high) to assume the next leg lower, which could be confirmed with a break of the April high. A break of which brings the support zones around 1.0850 and 1.0800 into focus for bears. A weak Australian employment report could help it move bac towards the daily lows in a few hours. 
 

ASX 200 at a glance:

 

  • Currencies

This material should be construed as market commentary and represents the opinions and viewpoints of the author, and does not reflect tailored advice associated with any specific account.


The views are current only through the date stated and are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, and StoneX Group Inc. (“SGI”) disclaims any responsibility to update such views. Actual results, performance, or achievements may differ materially from those expressed or implied. Information is based on data gathered from what we believe are reliable sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.


The StoneX Group Inc. group of companies provides financial services worldwide through its subsidiaries, including physical commodities, securities, exchange-traded and over-the-counter derivatives, risk management, global payments and foreign exchange products in accordance with applicable law in the jurisdictions where services are provided.


References to certain OTC products or swaps are made on behalf of StoneX Markets, LLC (SXM), a member of the National Futures Association (NFA) and provisionally registered with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a swap dealer. SXM’s products are designed only for individuals or firms who qualify under CFTC rules as an ‘Eligible Contract Participant’ and who have been accepted as customers of SXM.


StoneX Financial Inc. (SFI) is a member of FINRA/NFA/SIPC and registered with the MSRB. SFI is registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as a Broker-Dealer and with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and Commodity Trading Advisor. StoneX Financial (Canada) Inc. (SFCI) is registered in Canada and is a member of CIRO and CIPF. References to certain securities trading are made on behalf of the BD Division of SFI and are intended only for an audience of institutional clients as defined by FINRA Rule 4512(c). References to certain exchange-traded futures and options are made on behalf of the FCM Division of SFI. Wealth Management is offered through SA Stone Wealth Management Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and SA Stone Investment Advisors Inc., an SEC-registered investment advisor, both wholly owned subsidiaries of SGI.

R.J. O’Brien & Associates, LLC (RJO) is registered with the CFTC as a Futures Commission Merchant and is a member of NFA.


StoneX Financial Ltd (SFL) is registered in England and Wales, company no. 5616586. SFL is authorized and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) (registration number FRN:446717) to provide services to professional and eligible customers including: arrangement, execution and, where required, clearing derivative transactions in exchange traded futures and options. SFL is also authorized to engage in the arrangement and execution of transactions in certain OTC products, certain securities trading, precious metals trading and payment services to eligible customers. SFL is authorized and regulated by the FCA under the Payment Services Regulations 2017 for the provision of payment services. SFL is a category 1 ring-dealing member of the London Metal Exchange. In addition SFL also engages in other physically delivered commodities business and other general business activities which are unregulated and not required to be authorized by the FCA.


This communication is issued in the European Economic Area by StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (SFEG). StoneX is the trade name used by STONEX GROUP INC. and all its associated entities and subsidiaries. StoneX Financial Europe GmbH (“SFEG”) is a securities trading firm registered in Germany under Company No. HRB 80844.


StoneX Financial Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No 201130598R) (“SFP”) is regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore and is a Capital Markets Service Licence holder (for dealing in capital market products), an Exempt Financial Adviser (for advising on investment products and issuing or promulgating analyses/ reports on investment products) and a Major Payment Institution (for domestic and cross-border money transfer services).


SFP may distribute analysis/report produced by its respective foreign affiliates within the StoneX Group of companies pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations Recipients should contact SFP at (65) 6309 1000 for any matters arising from, or in connection with, this webinar.


StoneX APAC Pte. Ltd. (“SAP”) (Co. Reg. No 200616676W) is regulated as a Dealer (PS20190001002) under the Precious Stones and Precious Metals (Prevention of Money Laundering and Terrorism Financing) Act 2019 for purposes of anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism.


StoneX Financial (HK) Limited (CE No.: BCQ152) (“SHK”) is regulated by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission for Dealing in Securities and Dealing in Futures Contracts.


StoneX Financial Pty Ltd (ACN 141 774 727) holds an Australian Financial Service License (AFSL: 345646) for Dealing in Securities, Exchange-Traded Derivatives Contracts, OTC Derivatives Contracts and Foreign Exchange Contracts, and is regulated by the Australian Securities and Investments Commission.


StoneX Securities Co., Ltd. (“SSJ”) (Co. Reg. No 010401047199) is regulated by the Japanese Financial Services Agency as a Type-I Financial Instruments Business Operator (Kanto Local Finance Bureau (FIBO)No.291’), is a member of the Financial Futures Association of Japan for dealing and broking FX and FX Option transactions, and is a member of the Japan Securities Dealers Association for dealing and broking stock indices and option transactions.


Trading swaps and over-the-counter derivatives, exchange-traded derivatives and options and securities involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance of any futures or option is not indicative of future success. Indicators are not a trading system and are not published as a specific trade recommendation. The information herein is not a recommendation to trade nor investment research or an offer to buy or sell any derivative or security. It does not take into account your particular investment objectives, financial situation or needs and does not create a binding obligation on any of the StoneX group of companies to enter into any transaction with you. You are advised to perform an independent investigation of any transaction to determine whether any transaction is suitable for you. No part of this material may be copied, photocopied or duplicated in any form by any means or redistributed without the prior written consent of StoneX Group Inc.


The report/analysis herein is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation.


© 2026 StoneX Group Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Satellite view of Earth at night showing illuminated cities across Asia and the Middle East

Discover more insights

Our subscribers have access to comprehensive market analysis from StoneX spanning commodities, equities, currencies and more.

Related articles for Currencies

Energy Security Gives the Dollar a Powerful Edge

The U.S. dollar is increasingly benefiting from a structural advantage that many investors overlooked during years of low energy prices. As energy markets tighten and oil prices rise, America's position as a major energy producer is becoming an important source of economic resilience and currency support.

Editorial Team
Editorial Team
  • Currencies

Morning Commodity Insight (MCI): Technical Analysis and Trade Setup in Major Commodity Markets

This daily commentary delivers a concise, expert-driven overview of global futures markets, designed for traders and investors seeking actionable insights. Each edition covers the technical setups, and trade recommendations across major commodity contracts, including grains, livestock, metals, energy, currencies, and equity indices.

Eli Tesfaye
Eli Tesfaye
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Base Metals
  • Precious Metals
  • Equities
  • Energy
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Currencies

Morning Commodity Insight (MCI): Technical Analysis and Trade Setup in Major Commodity Markets

This daily commentary delivers a concise, expert-driven overview of global futures markets, designed for traders and investors seeking actionable insights. Each edition covers the technical setups, and trade recommendations across major commodity contracts, including grains, livestock, metals, energy, currencies, and equity indices.

Eli Tesfaye
Eli Tesfaye
  • Grains & Oilseeds
  • Base Metals
  • Precious Metals
  • Equities
  • Energy
  • Cocoa
  • Coffee
  • Sugar
  • Meats & Livestock
  • Currencies
StoneX: We open markets

Our market expertise, advanced platforms, global reach, culture of full transparency and commitment to our clients’ success all set us apart in the financial marketplace.

Reach

With access to 40+ derivatives exchanges, 180+ foreign exchange markets, nearly every global securities marketplace and numerous bi-lateral liquidity venues, StoneX’s digital network and deep relationships can take clients anywhere they want to go.

Transparency

As a publicly traded company meeting the highest standards of regulatory compliance in the markets we serve; our financials and record of accomplishment are matters of public record. StoneX’s commitment to “doing the right thing over the easy thing” sets us apart in the industry and helps us build respect, client trust and new partnerships.

Expertise

From our proprietary Market Intelligence platform, to “boots on the ground” expertise from award-winning traders and professionals, we connect our clients directly to actionable insights they can use to make more informed decisions and achieve their goals in the global markets.