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Oil as the inflation hedge: tried and trusted… until now?

By: Harry Altham, Energy Analyst, Market Analysis EMEA & Asia

Oil as the inflation hedge: tried and trusted… until now?
 
Harry Altham
Energy Analyst, EMEA & Asia

Brent dipped below $100 for the first time since 25th April, as concerns over the world economic outlook continue to grow. Prices crashed through the 100-day moving average support level on Tuesday, and prices have bounced off technical support around the $98.50 mark this morning (April 11th settlement and yesterday’s low). Last night’s Fed Minutes made it clear that inflation is to be brought under control as priority number one, which implies higher interest rates and a strong dollar outlook, although recent numbers undermine this to a degree. European natural gas prices continue their rally as supplies continue to tighten; infrastructure outages across Europe are restricting gas imports by around 20%, including a 100mcm/d shortage of flow through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has accused Vladimir Putin of using gas supplies as a weapon, as Germany grapples with significant concerns that it will not have enough gas to last the forthcoming winter. 

OIL AND THE ECONOMY
In what is increasingly becoming a two-factor scenario for oil, it is worth looking into the economic outlook side in more detail, particularly given its prevalence in oil markets in recent weeks. The best place to start is the data: global manufacturing PMI is slowing across the world, although China’s upward trajectory is a notable exception amid its recovery from lockdowns in the Spring. Unemployment claims in the United States have slowly risen since the beginning of April, which is being coupled with a plateauing labour force participation rate (currently 62.3%). On the back of last night’s Fed Minutes, we are expecting interest rates to rise as much as necessary to rein in inflation. Of particular consequential importance in our opinion is the strength of the dollar, which will grow further still with those interest rate hikes as the year moves on, although we expect it to peak before year-end. We view its outperformance against the euro, franc, yen, and pound as a manifestation of evaporating confidence in the world’s most liquid currencies, which itself is lending significant momentum to the growing cohort of commodity bears. The effects of rising yields as an inhibitor to economic activity has yet to be truly realised in the global economy, which suggests a tougher period ahead. 
Oil’s position within that matrix is complex. Commodities are typically seen as an inflation hedge; fund positioning as a proportion of managed money open interest in WTI jumped by 4.3% following the first FOMC meeting in January as we witnessed a substantial rebalancing of portfolios away from equities and into ‘safe havens’. Oil felt like an easy buy; the long-standing concerns over crude’s tight fundamentals provided the support that benchmarks hardly needed. With the advent of war in Ukraine, energy prices went into overdrive; JP Morgan issued reports claiming Brent would reach $185 (exceeding all-time price records by more than 25%). 
In light of the latest bout of capital flight, what can we derive? There are currently expectations that equities will see strong Q3 and Q4 earnings, while markets have also been predicting rate cuts in early-mid 2023 as traders anticipate central banks will respond to negative economic growth. By drawing capital away from commodities, these factors are adding fuel to an already burning fire: the impact of inflation, and negative economic growth, on oil consumption. Short positions by funds in WTI have increased by 50% in the last six weeks, in a sign that global oil consumption has been overestimated by the EIA for the end of this year. We are already witnessing seasonal gasoline demand in the United States as 5% below EIA expectations and falling European road fuel sales; these two regions’ demand destruction are expected to lag EM demand collapse, which is widely viewed as being in full swing. High energy prices are a key driver of cost-push inflation, and the primary fear in markets is that the pinch will carry back into global oil consumption. 
So, are negative price targets for oil something to be taken seriously? Given the strength of sentiment in oil markets, it is certainly a possibility, but we are expecting fundamental data to show persistent tightness in any economic scenario – which we believe will continue to provide periods of support to prices. As OPEC struggles to raise output, the key factor that could shift this supportive element is an agreement between the United States and Gulf States that would see OPEC members boost output beyond their allocated quotas. Though ICE have reduced their margins for Brent by 12.5% as of COB yesterday, we do not expect a rapid return of liquidity (rising interest rates could play an increasing role here); the push and pull between fundamental tightness and economic outlook concerns looks set to sustain volatility in oil markets for some weeks to come. 
 
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