By: Harry Altham, Energy Analyst, Market Analysis EMEA & Asia
When T.E. Lawrence returned to Cairo in 1918 after his key role in the Arab Revolt alongside Emir Faisal of Arabia, he had earned the deepest admiration of the same colleagues at British Army Headquarters who had chastised him for his lack of tact ahead of his departure just two years earlier. Fast forward 100 years, and President Biden’s return from the same lands that are now part of Saudi Arabia (Faisal would become King of Iraq after his father’s defeat to Ibn Saud) has left him nearly as defeated as General von Sanders all those years ago. OPEC+’s 100k bbd rise in output targeted in September is significant only in its own insignificance; it is the smallest increase in 39 years of OPEC quotas and has been widely interpreted as a public rebuke of President Biden’s attempts to lobby Saudi Arabia into pumping more crude. Delegates could point to the weakening structure in futures markets - or even the $20 retreat of spot prices - as justification that a larger hike is not necessary. In any case, the lobbying efforts (including a visit to Riyadh by President Biden last month) appear to have been unsuccessful and the President, unlike Lawrence, returns home without the outcomes he had hoped for.
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