Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 12

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 12 Apr 2023, 15:30

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 12 - Core inflation remains sticky, justifying another 25-basis point rate hike, based on this morning's data within the context of previous statements from the Federal Reserve. As such, this morning's stock rally on the headline numbers quickly ran out of gas as the initial drop in Treasury yields reversed course. The VIX continues to trade near 19, so there's no real panic on Wall Street. The dollar index is trading lower near 101.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 3.41%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.00%. Crude oil prices are more than 1% higher at fresh four-month highs, raising renewed inflation risks going forward, with gasoline prices hitting fresh five-month highs this morning. That suggests that next month's consumer price index may not have as friendly of headline number as what we saw this morning. Grain and oilseed prices are mixed at mid-morning.

Weakness is seen in the new-crop corn and soybean contracts this morning as the forecast continues to look favorable for this year's U.S. crops in the Midwest. Much of the Midwest should see warm dry conditions to spur active fieldwork over the next 10 days, while the rapidly developing warmth is quickly melting the deep snowpack in the northwestern Ag Belt. This combines with expectations of a favorable summer to strengthen the outlook for the 2023 crop. Meanwhile, old-crop supplies remain tight, providing support for the nearby contracts, while wheat garners support from losses in the Southern Plains combined with renewed concerns about the Ukraine grain initiative.

The current focus is on spring weather for planting, but what does the summer hold following three years of a La Nina pattern? The models continue to move in the same direction, calling for an El Nino weather pattern to develop at some point this summer. In fact, the most aggressive models have us in an El Nino weather pattern by May, with a strong El Nino - maybe even a super El Nino - by late summer. The less aggressive models have been slowly shifting El Nino's development forward, with greater strength. Some forecasters remain skeptical, but the models are shifting in that direction. Two of the major long-term models are shown below - the NMME & the ECMWF - for June, July, and August. These models generally show normal to above normal rainfall for the bulk of the Ag Belt this summer, with a more southern Bermuda High that could reduce hurricanes, although it may also stifle rainfall at times along the East Coast and Gulf Coast. Temperature forecasts for the summer have largely varied from modestly above normal to modestly below normal. Overall, this is what we might expect from an El Nino summer. This is contingent on expectations that currently cool waters off the West Coast will warm, which the models expect to happen over the next 60 days or so. Note, however, that the Canadian Prairies may not be as fortunate with rainfall amounts this summer. The below graphics were provided to me by Eric Snodgrass of Nutrien Solutions. Correspondingly, BAMWX has a similar outlook, focused on analog years of 2017, 2014, 2011, 2009(2X), and 1997. The average corn yield from those years would be 4.5 bushels above a 30-year straight-line trend yield. My math would therefore put such an anomaly above 184 bushels per acre IF it were to verify.

Two major models in relative agreement for Midwest summer rainfall. SOURCE: NMME, ECMWF, WeatherBell, & Nutrien

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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