Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 14 Apr 2022, 16:21

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 7 - Stocks had a firmer tone early, but they've slowly lost strength through the morning as Treasury yields rallied along with the dollar, raising concerns about the economy ahead of the three-day holiday weekend. Concerns remain with the war in Ukraine headed into the holiday period, with the markets closed tomorrow, amid reports that Ukrainian missiles did substantial damage to Russia's flagship war ship in the Black Sea. Yet, the VIX is trading near 21 at midday, reflecting easing fears on Wall Street overall. The dollar reached a fresh two-year high today just below 100.8 as yields on 10-year Treasuries rallied above 2.80%. Crude oil prices are modestly higher at midday, with the Ags mixed in relatively quiet trade heading into the holiday weekend.

Yet, both old and new-crop corn contracts posted fresh contract highs today, with the old-crop providing the leadership. Traders are cautious ahead of the holiday weekend, but the path of least resistance is currently higher. We're not going to run out of corn ahead of the 2022 harvest, but I do expect exports to impress this summer, and ethanol demand remains solid as well. But the primary concern for corn traders continues to be the 2022 crop. The Climate Prediction Center today called for La Nina to linger through the Northern Hemisphere growing season. That raises risks for the summer ahead, with a cool wet start delaying planting. I fully expect the crop to get planted in a reasonable time, even if current fieldwork is slowed. The greater focus is expected to be on July and August weather, which is when crop size is determined for both corn and soybeans. This year's smaller acreage, and the fact that Brazil's northern safrinha corn area is drying out during pollination, increases the need to have a big corn crop this year, especially with Ukraine out of the mix. Soybeans have the best chance at rebuilding supplies IF Brazil continues to expand production in its next growing season. Some local sources suggest that will not happen due to fertilizer shortages. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle. Chinese demand is softening, but not to the extent currently shown on USDA's balance sheet. Corn, soybeans and wheat face tight global balance sheets currently with little margin for error.

USDA reports that exporters sold 52.5 million bushels of old-crop corn in the week ending April 7, as shown below, along with another 15.9 million bushels of new-crop. Soybean export sales included 20.2 million old-crop and 16.8 million new-crop bushels. China was prominent for both commodities, buying 26.4 million of old-crop corn, 16.1 million bushels of new-crop corn, 16 million bushels of old-crop soybeans and 9.8 million bushels of new-crop soybeans. Four million bushels of the old-crop soybeans purchased by China were a mere transfer from previous purchases by "unknown destinations." Here's the bottom line from my analysis. I still expect USDA to drop this year's wheat exports by another 10 million bushels, while boosting corn exports by 45 million and soybeans by another 110 million bushels. That keeps pressure on this year's Midwest crops to produce, while wheat traders remain focused on the Plains drought.

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

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