Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 14

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Tue, 14 Apr 2026, 16:33

Today's Perspective Video: Iran Blockade Escalates: What It Means for Oil, Fertilizer & Grain Markets

April 14 - Energy prices dropped and stocks rallied as Wall Street hopes for an Iran peace deal rose this morning amid signs that the door remains open for more negotiations. I am skeptical that those in charge in Iran will ever give up on their hatred for Israel, which goes back thousands of years, or for America which has been a friend of Israel throughout its history. I'm skeptical that they will be willing to give up on their aspirations of having a nuclear weapon as well. But the possibility is there that they could agree to U.S. demands to abandon their nuclear ambitions in order to survive for another day down the road when they might have the another opportunity. The markets don't think about that longer term risk, but focus on the prospects for peace today. As such, the possibility of an agreement tends to be positive for money flow into those sectors that prosper in good times, like stocks.

As such, stocks rallied through much of the morning today, with both the S&P and the Nasdaq stock indices trading at pre-war levels. Think about that for a moment. Stocks are trading at pre-war levels, suggesting that either a) the war doesn't matter, or b) investors feel like it will soon be over, allowing the stimulus currently in the economy and in the tax structure to create strong growth. That's ignoring the impacts of the war yet to come, even if it ends tomorrow, which is the long tail of the war that I discussed in this morning's commentary. I do believe that there are lots of reasons for optimism the rest of the year if the war soon ends, but it will not be without some stress points - likely coupled with inflation risks for energy, and possibly food commodities as part of the long tail of the war that I discussed in this morning's commentary. The following is commentary written by StoneX Director of Market Strategy - Energy Alex Hodes in this morning's Kansas City Morning Energy Brief:

"US truckers are facing the highest diesel prices in years as the Iran war and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz drive up fuel costs, adding significant pressure on the industry that moves nearly three-quarters of the nation's freight. The national average retail diesel price has surged $1.89, or 50%, since the conflict began, reaching $5.52 per gallon — surpassing the previous record set in 2022. Small carriers and owner-operators are hit hardest, with many halting operations, reducing miles, or teetering on the edge of bankruptcy, while larger fleets use surcharges and discounts to cope. The spike is also raising concerns for consumers, as higher transportation costs could push up prices for everything from groceries to manufactured goods ahead of the November midterms, creating a political challenge for President Trump. Analysts warn that without a lasting ceasefire or resolution in the Middle East, diesel prices could climb even higher, further squeezing the sector and the broader economy."

Mexico purchased 12.4 million bushels of U.S. corn over the past 24 hours, but that wasn't the surprising part. The deal called for just 2.6 million bushels of the total to be delivered in the current marketing year, with 5.5 million bushels delivered in the 2026-27 marketing year, and 4.4 million bushels delivered in the 2027-28 marketing year. Some translate that as a concern of at least one buyer that the war related reductions in global fertilizer supplies might lead to higher corn prices over the next couple years. Corn also found tailwinds today from surging wheat prices. Those prices pushed higher, led by Kansas City, based on a couple of factors. The fertilizer story has the funds worried about long term global wheat production risks, but those were amplified by Monday afternoon's U.S. crop ratings showing more deterioration in the Plains crop where drought remains an issue.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 7

August 7 – The U.S. economy unexpectedly lost 23k jobs in July, dramatically below market expectations of an 80k increase and marking the worst Non-Farm Payrolls print since February. Furthermore, May and June were both revised sharply downward, with combined revisions showing 103k fewer jobs than previously reported. Outside of the healthcare sector, which added 22k jobs in July, the losses were very broad-based. Government payrolls saw the largest decline, shedding 53k jobs in July, the largest seen since October 2025, while June was revised down to show a loss of 10k jobs as well. The private sector at least saw growth, adding 30k jobs in July, now matching the month prior after it was revised down from the 49k initially reported, and substantially missing forecasts of 78k jobs being added. This is a sharp reversal in course from the largely better than expected U.S. labor data seen earlier this week.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 13:26

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Energy
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