Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 27

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Wed, 27 Apr 2022, 16:09

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 27 - The rebound continues on Wall Street today, following the massive tech-led selloff on Tuesday. Yet, the VIX remains elevated near 31, reflecting lingering anxiety levels on Wall Street. The dollar index posted a fresh five-year high near 103.3 this morning, while yields on 10-year Treasuries dipped below 2.72% as money flowed still into the safe-haven assets. Yet, yields have since rallied late-morning, and they are now trading near 2.80%. Crude oil prices are modestly lower, while natural gas prices are higher, with the Ags mostly mixed.

Both canola and soyoil prices surged to fresh all-time highs this morning after Indonesia broadened the scope of its export ban again to include crude palm oil. It's not believed that Indonesia will be able to sustain this ban for very long, as its storage will quickly fill up. Yet, it will tighten supplies in the meantime, and it represents just one more country hoarding supplies of crucial food supplies as prices rise. The move helped to elevate soybean prices today, along with recent sales to China, with corn seeing double-digit gains to new contract highs as well. Money continues to flow to the food-based commodities as global supplies tighten. Wheat was the exception for much of the morning, but Minneapolis reversed that trend to move higher on planting delay concerns that helped to lift the winter wheat markets off their lows.

Commercial crude oil inventories (not counting the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.7 million to 414.4 million barrels in the week ending April 22, but that still leaves them roughly 16% below the five-year average for the date. Gasoline stocks fell by 1.6 million barrels and are 4% below seasonal levels. Distillate stocks dropped by 1.4 million barrels, and they remain roughly 21% below levels typically seen at this time of year. Ethanol stocks fell to 24.0 million barrels in the week ending April 22, down from 24.3 million the previous week, but up from 19.7 million in the same week last year. Ethanol production rebounded to 963K barrels per day last week, up from 947K the previous week, and up from 945K barrels per day the previous year. The ethanol industry utilized an estimated 96.4 million bushels of corn last week, up from 94.8 million the previous week, and up from 95.5 million bushels in the same week last year. Estimated marketing year corn use to date for the production of ethanol totals 3.449 billion bushels, up 265 million or 8.3% from the previous year's pace, but slightly below the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target. Ethanol demand seasonally dips this time of year as processors take down time for maintenance. We expected a modest bounce in this week's data, and that's what we got. Demand has been relatively solid to this point, but there are reasons for concerns. Rail logistics makes moving ethanol out of the Midwest more challenging. Another developing dynamic is the significantly larger margins for refineries to focus on the production of diesel fuel / heating oil over gasoline. That may tighten U.S. gasoline supplies, driving prices higher, while reducing demand for ethanol for blending.

The State Street Investor Confidence Index fell 6.6 points this month to 92.9, reflecting growing investor apprehension to hold risk in their portfolios. State Street measures investor risk appetite by assessing money flow in and out of global equity markets, believing that positive money flow reflects a growing appetite for risk, while the opposite is true as well. The North American index fell 8 points to 95.2 this month, while the European index dropped another 6.7 points to 76.2. However, those losses were partially offset by a 2.4-point increase in the Asian index to 92.0.

Grains & Oilseeds

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Energy
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Cocoa
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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

Grains & Oilseeds

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