Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 6

By: Mike Castle, Market Intelligence - Fertilizer Analyst

Mon, 06 Apr 2026, 17:05

Today's Perspective Video: Hormuz Watch as Trump Ultimatum Nears

April 6 - And the war continues. Iran rejected the U.S. peace proposal today, and likely any other peace proposal near term as it tries to extend things as long as possible, believing that time is on its side. President Trump's 8 p.m. ET Tuesday ultimatum for reopening the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, so the likelihood of escalation is rising as we approach that time tomorrow. The Trump Administration posted this morning on social media a video of President Trump stating, "We could leave right now and it would take them 15 years to rebuild what they have... But I want to finish it up. Iran CANNOT have a nuclear weapon. They are lunatics -- and you can't put nuclear weapons in the hands of a lunatic." President Trump preceded that comment by saying that we have "many" options, but the bottom line is that the risk of escalation remains present.

Stocks actually firmed into midday, despite the above rhetoric. The VIX slipped lower to trade near 24, while the dollar index continues to trade near 100.0. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.33%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 3.85%. WTI crude oil is trading near $113 per barrel, while Brent trades near $109 per barrel. Kansas City wheat posted double-digit losses on improved moisture in the Plains, although a third of the belt is expected to remain dry, while corn and soybean prices posted modest gains at midday, supported by expectations that USDA will increase corn export and soybean crush targets in its WASDE crop report on Thursday.

USDA inspected 78.8 million bushels of corn for export shipment in the week ending April 2, it's third largest weekly total of the marketing year, as shown below. It also inspected 28.6 million bushels of soybeans, 12.3 million bushels of wheat, and 2.3 million bushels of grain sorghum for export shipment during the week. All of the grain sorghum was destined for China, along with 18.3 million bushels of soybeans. Yet, marketing year to date grain sorghum shipments to all destinations continues to fall short of the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by 19 million bushels, and the deficit is slowly growing.

Marketing year to date corn export inspections total a record pace of 1.908 billion bushels, up 503 million bushels or 36% from the previous year's pace. The total exceeds the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 297 million bushels, although that surplus is slowly shrinking. Nonetheless, the below graphic shows just how impressive this year's corn export demand has been. The pace slowed a month ago, but it's regaining momentum again. Even so, the sales pace has slowed notably as Argentine new crop supplies began hitting the global market, which suggests that we'll see U.S. shipments slow in the months ahead, especially if Brazil grows a good crop.

Marketing year to date soybean export inspections total a seven-year low 1.127 billion bushels, down 401 million bushels or 26% from the previous year's pace. The total still falls short of the year-to-date seasonal pace needed to hit USDA's target by August 31 by 96 million bushels, but that deficit continues to shrink as China takes shipment of the nearly 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans that it purchased this winter. Thus far it has taken shipment of 344.1 million bushels or 9.4 million metric tons. Once shipment of those soybeans to China concludes, we'll likely see the weekly pace fall back below the seasonal pace again, likely rendering USDA's export target too lofty without additional commitments in the anticipated May trade agreement when President Trump travels to Beijing.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 6

August 6 – This morning’s stronger-than-expected U.S. labor data offered markets some relief, reinforcing confidence in the economy while giving the Fed greater flexibility to raise rates should inflationary pressures reaccelerate in next week’s July data. Stock futures are pointing to a mixed open to start the day, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing the most weakness. The VIX has fallen notably from yesterday’s spike above 18.4 as it starts the day hovering just below the 16-mark. The dollar is quietly higher as it trades just above 99.8, holding in the tight range seen thus far this week as traders continue to digest data to shape expectations for the Fed’s next move, which we’ll dive into in more depth below. Long-term treasury yields have relaxed slightly from their recent spike, with 30-year yields starting the day trading just above 5.19%, while 10-year yields trade above 4.64%, and 2-year yields sit below 4.22%. Crude oil is modestly higher to start the session after sharp declines earlier in the week, with nearby WTI up 1.8% to trade at $76.40 and nearby Brent up 2.4% to trade at $81.40. Meanwhile, the ags are quietly mixed to start the day.

Mike CastleThu, 06 Aug 2026, 13:24

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 5

August 5 – U.S. equities markets are on fire this week, with both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 setting new all-time highs yesterday with futures indicating further gains again today; the marketplace remains optimistic over a deal with Iran despite no evidence of such as of yet. Crude oil is working on a lower high and low today but remains slightly on the high side on the session, while the dollar is retreating back towards Monday’s nearly two-month low. The ten-year note is steady-to-lower this morning (though solidly lower so far this month) at 4.605%, while the VIX index continues to rebound into mid-week at almost a 17-point reading this morning.

Matt ZellerWed, 05 Aug 2026, 12:39

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The Dow Jones is absolutely piling on gains today, adding a similar number that led to yesterday’s record, with the benchmark index now nearing the 54k-point mark through mid-morning. The S&P also hit a new record, while the NASDAQ is exceeding both those gains on a percentage basis. The marketplace is optimistic on a U.S.-Iran trade deal, though the proposed resolution is still being “circulated between the parties”.

Mike CastleTue, 04 Aug 2026, 14:58

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