Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for April 7

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Thu, 07 Apr 2022, 15:36

Perspective: Midday Commentary

Arlan Suderman

Chief Commodities Economist

April 7 - Wall Street continues to retreat amid perceptions that the Federal Reserve is shifting hard to the hawkish side in its policies, while the U.S. Senate votes 100-0 to end normal trading relations with Russia. The VIX is trading near 23 as we approach midday, while the dollar index is trading near 99.6 and yields on 10-year Treasuries trade near three-year highs at 2.66%. Crude oil prices are modestly lower, while the Ags are mixed. Soybean prices are solidly higher, supported by strength in the edible oils markets, as well as by CONAB's lower Brazil production estimate. Corn and wheat are quietly lower.

USDA releases its April WASDE report tomorrow, with few surprises anticipated. Look for more downward revisions for Brazil soybeans, with possible reductions for Argentine corn and soybeans as well. It's still early to make significant changes to Brazil's corn production estimate, although good early rains and upward adjustments to safrinha corn area may give us a modest increase in the production estimate. Yet, the critical time period for the crop lies ahead. It's the equivalent to early July in the Midwest for the safrinha corn crop. April and early May is a critical time for the bulk of the crop that is passing through pollination and early grain fill. The weather pattern turned much drier for the northern half of the belt as we turned the calendar, although heat is not a factor at this time. This week's longer-range European model called for that dry bias to linger through May as well. I don't think we're looking at the type of short crop that we saw last year, but the current forecast would suggest that we'll take the top off this crop in the months ahead.

The U.S. corn balance sheet below includes my look at the 2022-23 marketing year, using USDA's acreage from March 31, and its trend yield from its February Outlook Forum. USDA will release its first WASDE balance sheet for the 2022-23 marketing year on May 12. Note the expectations that the lower acreage, shown in "Alt. #1" below, produces a 14.867 billion bushel crop, but anticipated demand is 15.327 billion, dropping projected ending stocks for the next marketing year below 1 billion bushels, largely because Ukraine exports are expected to remain minimal over the coming year. It would take acreage closer to 92 million and a trend yield to meet anticipated demand without cutting stocks.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 11

August 11 – It was generally a quiet night for the markets until early this morning when a headline hit that Iran and Oman were close to reaching a deal. Stock futures rallied, while the dollar index followed Treasury yields lower, along with active selling in the energy- and food-based commodities. The headline had limited impact though in a world that has become skeptical of promises of peace. Stock futures remain steady to firmer at this hour, while the VIX trades near 16 – just above 2026 lows. The dollar index is trading near 99.8 this morning, after recovering from its early morning selloff over the following hour of trade. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.69%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries trade near 4.22%. WTI crude oil is trading near $82 per barrel at this hour, while Brent trades near $88. The grain and oilseed markets are mostly weaker, after failing to recover from this morning’s early selloff that started in the crude oil market.

Arlan SudermanTue, 11 Aug 2026, 13:21

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 10

August 10 – The world commodity markets and economy remains at risk amid two wars this morning. Tensions continue to escalate in both the Middle East and the Black Sea – risking pulling other countries into the conflicts. Stocks are down modestly this morning as we start a week of trade in which we’ll see key inflation and retail sales data following a weak jobs report this past Friday. Yet, stocks continue to trade just below record high levels, with the VIX trading near 2026 lows just above 15. The dollar index is trading near 99.7. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.68%, while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 4.23%. The energy and food-based markets are firmer today amid the escalated risks. WTI crude oil is trading near $80, while Brent trades near $85 per barrel. Double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets lead the way for higher grain and oilseed prices.

Arlan SudermanMon, 10 Aug 2026, 13:51

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 7

August 7 – Stocks are looking to end a strong week on a strong note, with the major indexes all in the green at the time of writing. The VIX touched a nearly seven-month low earlier in the session and remains muted as it hovers just below the 15-mark as this morning’s ugly labor market data helps ease hawkish Fed jitters. The dollar has rebounded from its nearly two-month low earlier in the session but remains in the red on the day, trading at 99.55 at the time of writing. Treasuries have had a very volatile day, with yields tanking following this morning’s Non-Farm Payrolls release but bouncing back into midday, with 30-year yields now trading at 5.209%, 10-year yields trading at 4.654%, and 2-year yields trading at 4.204%. Crude oil has risen from the morning lows as traders eye the weekend market closure for potential geopolitical developments, with nearby WTI now down only 0.2% on the day to trade around $78.10 and nearby Brent breaking into the green, up 1.25% on the day to trade above $83.50. The ags are largely mixed, with the grains and oilseeds mostly in the green, save for a mixed picture in the soy complex, while live and feeder cattle futures move in opposite directions, with the former adding to yesterday’s sharp losses and the latter attempting a rebound.

Mike CastleFri, 07 Aug 2026, 17:09

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