Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for August 1

By: Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist

Fri, 01 Aug 2025, 15:30

Today's Perspective Video: China's Big $160 Billion Mega-Project Bet Amid New Trump Tariffs

August 1 - Stocks gapped lower and the VIX surged to five-week highs above 21 after a poor jobs report and renewed tariff fears this morning, although the VIX has pulled back to near 20 at this hour. The dollar index pushed to a new two-month high ahead of this morning's jobs data, before falling sharply to trade near 99.0 at midday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries are trading near 4.24% - a one-month low - while yields on 2-year Treasuries are trading near 3.74%. Crude oil prices are nearly 3% lower on concerns that OPEC will again raise output as tariffs slow economic growth. Grain prices are under pressure again, while soybean prices bounce following recent sharp losses.

Our first StoneX official yield estimates of the year should be released on Monday afternoon, based on our customer survey results. I discussed the implications for the corn balance sheet on Wednesday, so I'd like to look at soybeans today. First, I think that it's important to emphasize that it's the first of August. Estimating soybean yields is a challenge in August, because there's so much more to be determined. It's tough enough to nail down corn yields on August 1st, but doing so for soybeans is even tougher. As such, the yield estimates submitted to us are likely to reflect the degree to which local soybeans look either better or worse than they typically due in early August. And, this year overall they "look" better. There are always problem areas, but those problem areas appear to be more limited than normal this year. I have not seen any of the data at this point, so don't read anything into my comments about what Monday's estimate will be for either corn or soybeans, other than my 40+ years of experience working with the crops.

August is the difference maker for soybean yields. A hot dry August reduces pod set and gives you smaller beans inside the pods, while a mild and wet August do the opposite. Those factors alone can easily make the difference of soybean yields moving 5% either way of trend, if not more. My official balance sheet below still has USDA's 52.5 bushel per acre yield until we receive our customer survey results on Monday. Alternative #1 & #2 incorporate a 5% below and 5% above trend yield respectively, based on the above discussion. There's about 400 million bushels of production difference between the two. That has market implications, which then impact demand as well. On the demand side, I assume that crush will run near capacity over the coming marketing year, minus some down time for maintenance, due to the expectation of a strong biofuel program going forward. That could change to the downside if we see a bearish small refinery exemption verdict from the EPA. My baseline assumption for exports is 1.650 billion bushels - down 95 million from USDA - due to current trade dynamics with China. A lower yield seen in Alternative #1 likely sees even smaller exports due to price rationing, unless we see a big trade deal with China. On the other hand, China might have trouble passing up on our soybeans if we produce a big crop resulting in cheap prices.

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 4

August 4 – The benchmark Dow Jones Industrial Average surged into the close yesterday to finish almost 700 points higher, at a record close of 53,178 points – easily clearing the previous top from almost a month ago. The S&P 500 is on the brink of its own record as well, while the NASDAQ index is short of June highs but working on a strong three-session rally. All three are pointing to positive openings today. Palantir (a U.S. software company) reported better-than-expected earnings yesterday afternoon post-close to boost the tech sector, though a host of other firms reported strong earnings as well. The ten-year note continues to retreat from Friday’s high, now at 4.67%, with the dollar on the high side of level-par, while the VIX index now under 16 shows reduced volatility.

Matt ZellerTue, 04 Aug 2026, 12:43

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Perspective: Morning Commentary for August 3

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Matt ZellerMon, 03 Aug 2026, 12:45

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Perspective: Mid-Day Commentary for July 31

July 31 – Stocks are clinging to modest gains at midday, with largely better than expected U.S. economic data today providing some optimism to end the week. The VIX briefly spiked to 18.7 earlier in the session but has since settled back to 17.15 at midday. The dollar has given back some of its gains on the day, now only modestly in the green, up roughly 0.1% to trade near 100.06 at the time of writing. Treasury action has been mixed thus far today, but yields remain notably elevated, with 30-year yields trading just below their 19-year high at 5.267%, 10-year yields just off their one-and-a-half-year high at 4.74%, and 2-year yields right at 4.30%. Crude oil remains quietly higher, with nearby WTI up 0.9% on the day near $84.70 and nearby Brent up 0.7% to trade near $87.40. The grains and oilseeds are widely lower at midday, with the wheat complex leading the way down, while the livestock sector is largely in the green.

Mike CastleFri, 31 Jul 2026, 16:33

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